Political Linkage: Factors Work Through These Links to Influence Political Policy

1. Political Linkage: Factors Work Through These Links to Influence Political Policy Public Opinion

2. Democracy and Public Opinion • Public Opinion: the political attitudes and beliefs expressed by ordinary citizens • Crucial to democracy

3. Democracy and Public Opinion • Public opinion in the U.S. is relatively stable, yet • There are questions about quality • Intensity: depth of feeling about an issue • Latency: hidden or unspoken feeling • Salience: extent to which an issue has an impact on us

5. Democracy and Public Opinion • We know the following: • Government officials can lead or manipulate public opinion • Events and circumstances can affect it • The press can influence it • The public can have a strong impact on policymaking, both foreign and domestic

6. Democracy and Public Opinion • We also know that Americans • Are ignorant about the government • Lack interest in politics • Rely on group or party loyalties rather than on issues • Philip Converse coined the phrase nonattitudes, which is the practice of giving answers merely to satisfy the interviewers

7. Democracy and Public Opinion • Finally, we know that • The Framers were worried about public opinion; Madison called it popular passions • Madison and de Tocqueville talked about the tyranny of the majority • Lippmann said that most of us know little about what goes on in the world, and we form our opinions based on stereotypes

8. Measuring What People Think • Early methods often involved guesswork or “preaching to the choir” • Development of modern survey work • George Gallup and Elmo Roper used modern statistical techniques to measure it. How? • Survey: set of standardized questions asked to people who were chosen randomly

10. Measuring What People Think • Representative sample: includes all the significant characteristics of the population • To ensure representativeness • Survey at least 2,000 people (but 3,000 is better) • Make sure the sample is random • By making the sample random, every member of the population has an equal chance of appearing in it • Guard against sampling bias • No particular set of people have a greater or lesser chance of being surveyed

11. Measuring What People Think • Are your results reliable? • Answers are meaningful and consistent • Survey can be replicated with substantially the same results • How do you ensure reliability? • Yes or no questions versus open-ended or closed-ended questions • Demeanor of the interviewer is courteous, businesslike, neutral, and persistent

12. Measuring What People Think • Oops! • Margin of error: the measure of possible error; the entire population of voters will fall within a range of plus or minus x points • The larger the number sampled, the smaller the error rate, or the less likely there are to be errors

13. Measuring What People Think • Caution! Just because people are ill-informed does not necessarily mean that their opinions do not count • Ideology: a system of interlocking attitudes and beliefs • Cue-givers: experts, political leaders, and rules that lead us to what we think

14. How We Feel About Politics • The system • Confidence: trust in government institutions • Public confidence is • Related to events • Can be manipulated or manufactured • Political efficacy: one’s feeling as to whether it makes a difference to participate in the process; that is, do they hear us?

15. How We Feel About Politics • Political Parties and Public Opinion • Party identification: an affinity for one party or another; a sense of belonging • Two dominant parties in America, but • The number of people who classify themselves as “independents” has grown

16. How We Feel About Politics • High degree of consensus about basic American values such as freedom, democracy, capitalism, and equal opportunity

17. How We Feel About Politics • How do we resolve the conflict of values? • Arrange ourselves into political parties • Liberals • Favor regulation of business and the government • Favor civil liberties and alternative lifestyles • Conservatives • Favor economic liberty and freedom from government interference • Favor traditional social values

19. Political Socialization • Process of learning about politics and developing our political beliefs • Begins as early as four or five years of age • Elements • Family • School • Peers • Media, especially the medium of TV

20. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Race and ethnicity • Largest cleavage is between blacks and whites • Hispanics/Latinos • Cuban: tend to be conservative Republicans • Mexican or Puerto Rican: liberal on economic issues but traditional on social issues

21. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Race and ethnicity (con’t) • Asians • Diverse background including Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Chinese • As a rule they are more successful from an economic and educational perspective; conservative Republicans • Asians from lesser developed countries • Low education • Little or no job skills

22. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Race and ethnicity (con’t) • White ethnics • Not as distinct in their political behavior or opinions • Irish, Italian, Polish and other southern or eastern Europeans were originally attracted to liberal policies and to the Democrats • These distinctions have faded since the 1980s • Working class whites • The so-called “angry white male” • Soccer moms • Office park dads

23. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Many of the aforementioned variables • May have changed • Election of Barack Obama in 2008 • Did the variables change, or was his election due in part to his strategy and tactics?

24. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Religion: ethnic differences are often interwoven with religious faith and values • Catholics: • Initially Democratic and more liberal • Family issues • Jews • Primarily Democrats • Liberal on social issues

25. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Protestants • Mainline • High income • Liberal • Universalists/Unitarians, Middle class northern Baptists • Liberal • Southern Baptists and evangelicals • Lower income • Very conservative

26. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Region • Rural versus urban • Urban versus suburban • South/West versus North/East versus Midwestern/Northeast • These differences have changed the face of politics • Conservative • Republicans • Suburban and middle class • Working class or lower middle class

27. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Social Class • Generally speaking, the wealthier the individual, the more conservative that individual will be • Low-income = Democrats; High income = Republicans, but income is related to distinct policy preferences • Low income = government assistance with education, housing, and medical care • High income = government regulation of environment; liberal on social issues

28. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Education • This is the strongest predictor of participation in politics • Some policy preferences appear to be related to education. For example, • Those with more education show more support for civil rights, civil liberties, and individual freedom

29. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Gender • Women now vote in about the same proportion as men, but • Substantial gap in the number of women who hold office • Gender gap

30. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Gender • Distinct preferences in policy areas • Women are more opposed to violence and more supportive of protective policies for the “have not's” • Women oppose capital punishment and oppose the use of military force abroad more often than men

31. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Age • The young are attuned to the times in which they live • Generational replacement: as the old die, so do their ideas. These ideas are replaced by those of the young • 2008 presidential election

32. Social Variables that InfluenceOpinion Formation • Age • Those who are 18-24 years of age have the lowest level of voting • Those who are 65+ years of age have the highest level of voting

33. Does Public Opinion Strongly Influence Government Policy? • Yes • Examples? • No • Examples? • Maybe • Examples? • It depends • Examples?