Ruralisation – integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainability

1. Ruralisation – integrating settlements and agriculture to provide sustainability Folke Günther Dept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University E-mail: Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se URL: http://etnhum.etn.lu.se/~fg/index.htm

2. Is energy cheap? Availabilty for gasoline energy at gas station (working time for one kWh) Energy availability today: About ten times more than 1920 Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

3. Adaptation to cheap energy: Case 1: agriculture Improved wheat High yield (seed productionwith residual energy) The farmer takes care of: Wild wheat Low yield (seed productionwith residual energy) Pest defence Competition with neighbours Necessary functions: Seed distribution Pest defence Seed distribution Planting Competition with neighbours by the use of fossil fuels Planting Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

4. Food management: (Energy efficiency less than 10:1) Assumed local handling, 4000 kWh Necessary for respiration, 4000 kWh The car (assuming 15000 km/yr) The house: Conventional house (according to ’Byggnorm 80’) Heavy car(10-12 l/100 km) Light car(5-7 l/100 km) Super-isolated house Saving potential: about 6 000 kWh/yr Saving potential: about 8 000 kWh/yr Adaptation to cheap energy,Case 2: settlements Assume: Four persons living in a house Saving potential: about 32 000 kWh/yr(associated with vulnerability to high energy prices) Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

5. Maximum finding rate Found each 5 year period Used Ultimately found Will energy prices continue to be low? The Hubbert Curve Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

6. A: The Bush mode B: Unprobable mode C: Probable mode Different utilisation modes of remaining resources Rule: You can not use what is not found ∫’found’(x)dx ≥ ∫’used’(x)dx Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

7. Will energy prices continue to be low? The Big rollover Will this be our gloomy future? Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

8. 10 times more common in the body than in the Earth crust Why phosphorus? The constituents of an animal (or vegetable) body: H O C N S P Na K Ca …64 H O C N S With gaseous phases — can be transported by the air P Na K Ca …64 Without gaseous phases — must be transported as solids or liquids Na K Ca …64 More common in the Earth crust than in the body Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

9. The HEAP trap Hampered Effluent Accumulation Process Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

10. The HEAP trap Hampered Effluent Accumulation P rocess J Q kQ (stored amount) J=kQ J Q (leakage) Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

11. STORAGE EXHAUSTION:P extraction horizon: about 130 years (at current energy price)Increasing energy use per unitIncreasing energy priceActual extraction horizon: Unknown HEAP:Leakageequalsimport HEAP:Leakageequalsimport Linear flows Import of nutrients compensates export of produce Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

12. Linear flows HEAP HEAP Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

13. ’Balanced agriculture’: -- manure is used for fodder production About 80% of the nutrients are circulated The same amount, 20% need to be imported About 20% is exported AGRICULTURE The balanced agriculture — settlement The leakage from a normal agriculture represents about 1% of the turnover SETTLEMENT This represent the nutrient turnover of about 6 persons Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

14. Conclusion 1 About 6 persons are in nutrient balance with 1 hectare of balanced agriculture This means that about 0,2 hectares of such agriculture can support one individual without HEAP effects Provided that the nutrient containing residues are returned to the agriculture Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

15. Rules for sustainability • You can not be dependent on storages • Neither of energy Solution: Energy flows • Nor of nutrients Solution: Recycling Corollary: Food should be produced as close as possible to the consumer in order to diminish food system energy needs and maximise nutrient recycling capacity You must have a supportive function on your support system Solution: Improve(not just maintain) the health of your ecosystem Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

16. Plant nutriens in food arereturned to agriculture The eco-unit Area: 50 ha for 200 inhabitants Diversified agriculture Functional size, pop. about 200 Providing most of the human foodand all of the animal fodder Open ditches Orchards Private gardens Nutrient reclaimLandscape diversityPredator habitatLee – planting Biomass production Biological greywater treatment plant (wetpark)Clean water is returned to the households Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

17. The ruralisation scenario – start point In this scenario, the following things are supposed: # A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist 4. Instead of building new houses on the placeswhere the old ones were torn down, they decide to build eco-units in the periphery of the town. 1. The city is inhabited by decisionmakers who have the capacity to make far-sighted and strategic decisions 2. They have the same knowledge of limiting resources, ecology and the rules for long-term survival as you. 3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is not static, but dynamic. Old houses are torne down and new are built. (The average life-time for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which gives the city a rate of change of 1,6%) At start point, the centre of the municipality has a population of 33 000The periphery is inhabited by 3 000 # The rules are: You can imagine the most ridiculous things But you have to render a statement of the effects Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

18. Ruralisation – after 12 years With the given rate of change, the centre of the municipality has a population of 24 000The periphery is inhabited by 12 000 Groups of four Eco-unitsEach group is inhabited by 800 people Local parks replacing the old houses Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

19. Ruralisation – after 25 years At this stage, the centre of the municipality has a population of 12 000The periphery is inhabited by 24 000 Reversed ditching: Underground streams are brought up to the surface 5 600 persons Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

20. Area with integrated agriculture – settlements.Population density closing to 500/km2 … and the decision-makers are still there.. Ruralisation – after 50 years At the end of the ruralisation process, the centre of the municipality has a population of 3 000The periphery is inhabited by 36 000 • Minimal dependency of fuel storages due to: • Localised food-system • Use of wind, solar-power and biomass Many characteristics of the area (P/R-ratio, nutrient retention capacity, mutualism, biodiversity) are closing to those of mature ecosystems. No HEAP-trapNutrients are circulated Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

21. Very small difference: Increased human transport equals diminished food transport 2,000,000,000 SEK difference The economy of ruralisation In this calculation, it is not possible to account for changes of the ’Rollover’ type. Therefore, continuous, steady changes of energy prices are assumed (In this case: 5% annual increase in price for industrial energy, and 2% for renewable energy sources) Unchanged city Ruralisation Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

22. Conclusions There is an immediate need for finding strategies to avoid dependence on storages of: Energy Nutrients For sustainability, these strategies must also include a supportive behaviour towards the supporting ecosystems Regarding these restrictions, the urban structure common today is unsustainable Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

23. Conclusions To avoid dependence onstorages of: Energy — use flows or funds Nutrients — recycle This will impose restrictions on distance Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

24. Conclusions To establish a supportive behaviourtowards the supporting ecosystems: Adapt to behaviours typical to matureecosystems Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

25. Conclusions All these strategies can be established in the border of the urban structures common today Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

26. Conclusions By advanced undulation of the borders, leading to the integration of the city with its hinterland, some obstacles to sustainability may be overcome Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se

27. Folke.Gunther@humecol.lu.se