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UFE Impact of Hurricane Rita

This document provides an overview of the impact of Hurricane Rita on load profiles and Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) in the ERCOT region. It covers various aspects such as initial settlement, profiled ESIIDs, IDR ESIIDs, final settlement, UFE comparison, and implementation of load profile changes.

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UFE Impact of Hurricane Rita

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  1. UFE Impact of Hurricane Rita

  2. UFE Impacts due to Rita • Initial settlement has only about 40% of meter reads available • Profiled ESIIDs use most recent usage for profile scaling factor • IDR ESIIDs may be estimated with prior period • Final & True-Up settlement have over 99% of meter reads available • Profiled ESIIDs will use meter reads covering period. However, application of usage to profile will result in load being assigned during outages • IDR ESIIDs will use actual data available covering the period and will reflect what actually occurred for the ESIID

  3. UFE Impacts due to Rita • Mass evacuation impacted UFE even before hurricane struck • UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses) • Negative UFE means load is overestimated • Positive UFE means load is underestimated • UFE may be created in a region but is allocated ERCOT-wide according to Protocols

  4. UFE Comparison

  5. UFE Comparison

  6. Section 18.2.9 • ERCOT shall give at least one hundred fifty (150) days notice to all Market Participants prior to market implementation of any change in Load Profile Methodology, existing Load Profiles, or when any additional Load Profiles are developed.  This notice shall include a Load Profile change implementation timeline, which specifies dates on which key events during the Load Profile change process will take place.  Upon any change in Load Profile Types, TDSPs shall send any revised ESI Load Profile assignments required by the change to the registration system within the implementation timeline.  After the new Load Profile(s) becomes available, changes to Load Profile Types will be effective on the next meter read date for each ESI ID. • If one or more Load Profiles require changes to reduce excessive UFE, as determined by the appropriate ERCOT TAC subcommittee, TAC may provide a shorter notice period and implementation date, than otherwise provided herein, for such required changes to Load Profiles.  If the Load Profile Methodology requires changes to reduce excessive UFE, as determined by the appropriate ERCOT TAC subcommittee, the Board may provide an expedited notice period and implementation date.  TAC may require the standard Load Profile revision process follow such expedited revisions for long-term resolution.

  7. Additional Background InformationExample of Applying Usage to Profile

  8. Load Profiling Example- Cumulative Meter Read (non-IDR): • Monthly TDSP meter read is submitted for a RESLOWR_SCENT ESI ID: • 1,460 kWh Cumulative Reading for 11/15/03 to 12/14/03. • Apply the published Backcasted load profiles to arrive at interval settlement data.

  9. Load Profiling Example- Application of Backcast: • Backcasted Load Profile for RESLOWR_SCENT: • Profile Total = 729.53 kWh Backcast (Estimate)

  10. Load Profiling Application of Backcasted Load Profiles to an ESI ID* 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 kWh (15-minute) 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 12/1/03 12/2/03 12/3/03 12/4/03 12/5/03 12/6/03 12/7/03 12/8/03 12/9/03 11/16/03 11/18/03 12/12/03 11/17/03 11/21/03 11/24/03 11/26/03 11/27/03 11/29/03 12/14/03 11/15/03 11/19/03 11/20/03 11/22/03 11/23/03 11/25/03 11/28/03 11/30/03 12/10/03 12/11/03 12/13/03 * Published RESLOWR_SCENT backcasted load profiles for 11/15/03 thru 12/14/03: 729.53 Total kWh Actually applied to groups of ESI IDs with similar characteristics.

  11. Load Profiling Example- Finding the Ratio: • Find the scalar ratio between: • Meter Read Total– 1460 kWh • Profile Total- 729.53 1,460 kWh / 729.53 = ~2.0

  12. Load Profiling Application of Backcasted Load Profiles to an ESI ID* 0.90 RESLOWR_SCENT ESI ID Meter Read: 1,460 kWh from 11/15/03 thru 12/14/03. Each published backcasted load profile value is multiplied by a scalar of approx. 2.0 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 kWh (15-minute) 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 729.53 TotalkWh Published RESLOWR_SCENT backcasted load profiles for 11/15/03 thru 12/14/03: 0.00 12/1/03 12/2/03 12/3/03 12/4/03 12/5/03 12/6/03 12/7/03 12/8/03 12/9/03 11/16/03 11/15/03 11/26/03 11/27/03 11/28/03 11/29/03 11/30/03 12/10/03 12/11/03 12/12/03 12/13/03 12/14/03 11/17/03 11/18/03 11/19/03 11/20/03 11/21/03 11/22/03 11/23/03 11/24/03 11/25/03 * Actually applied to groups of ESI IDs with similar characteristics.

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