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Advanced Hurricane Research: Insights and Forecast Evaluation

Explore the ocean as an energy source for hurricanes and the dynamics of convection in tropical storms. Learn about instruments, logistics, and methods for improving forecast evaluations.

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Advanced Hurricane Research: Insights and Forecast Evaluation

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  1. Weather Research Chris Davis NCAR Director, Advanced Study Program Senior Scientist, NESL/MMM

  2. Hurricane Research Images of Ike Courtesy CIMSS SSEC

  3. Hurricanes • Ocean is the energy source • Condensation heating drives radial circulation • Strongly rotational: convection and deformation radius similar • Strong differential rotation in outer region, near-solid-body in eye From Houze (2010), who adapted from Wallace and Hobbs (2006)

  4. Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001: JAS

  5. African Easterly Wave (AEW) Berry et al., 2007: Monthly Weather Review

  6. AEWs: An example Berry et al., 2007: Monthly Weather Review

  7. Surface Circulation from Dropsonde Data and GOES-12 IR, Pre-Fay 2008

  8. 850 hPa Flow in the Resting Frame 850 hPa Flow in the Moving Frame

  9. PREDICT (PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics)Instruments and Logistics • 15 August – 30 Sept. 2010 • Base: St. Croix Virgin Islands • NCAR G-V: 200 research hours • 10+ disturbances sampled, 25 flights • 550 dropsondes • Microwave Temperature Profiler • Differential GPS • Small Ice Detector • Cloud Particle Imager • CVI Crew 1 Crew 2 15 Aug. 1 Sept. 15 Sept. 30 Sept. Double-crewed G-V, 1-15 Sept.

  10. Global Hawk (Dryden) DC-8, (ER-2) NCAR G-V NOAA P-3

  11. Inflow Schematic of the “Pouch” Saharan Air Layer Trough Moist Jet CL

  12. Flight Timing1 G-V Flight (9-10 h) G-V 40,000 ft G-IV DC-8 P-3 10,000 ft 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC

  13. Flight Timing2 G-V flights (7-7.5 h) G-V G-V 40,000 ft G-IV DC-8 P-3 10,000 ft 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC

  14. Inflow Schematic of the “Pouch” Saharan Air Layer Trough Moist Jet CL

  15. G-V “Square-Spiral” with NOAA 1 2 5 7 4 6 3 Shading: GOES-IR imagery Zonally translated 700 hPa streamlines (C~ -6 m/s)

  16. Official-Forecast Errors

  17. Previous version of Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Latest version of Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW)

  18. Previous version of Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Latest version of Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW)

  19. Forecast Evaluation • How does one demonstrate one set of forecasts is better than another?

  20. Some Common Methods • The “eyeball” method: “It just looks better” • Expectations: “This is a much more sophisticated model, therefore…” • Regional focus: “This model is better somewhere…” • Blind statistics: Reward for mediocrity • Case study: problem of generalization

  21. L W Object Attributes • Intensity (percentile value) • Area (# grid points > T) • Centroid • Axis angle (rel. to E-W) • Aspect ratio (W/L) • Fractional Area • Curvature 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile R=16 km; T = 5 mm h-1 Raw Forecast (28 h, 04 UTC 11 June)

  22. Defining the Quality of a Match • “Interest” (I) is defined for the jth pair of objects (forecast and observed) • Range of 0 to 1 ICP Workshop, August 24-25, 2009

  23. Interest Matrix ICP Workshop, August 24-25, 2009

  24. IHOP, June 15, 2002 ARW Stage IV Time (0-36 h) Colors do not indicate matching AMS 23 WAF, 19 NWP

  25. Chatham, Massachusetts

  26. U. Mass, Amherst, MA Physics MIT, Cambridge, MA Meteorology

  27. Leadership (a personal view) • Evolved rather than planned • Balanced perspective • Result of accumulated rather than singular actions • Mix of reservation, confidence and empathy ?

  28. Advanced Study Program • Postdoctoral Fellowships • Faculty Fellowships • Graduate Student Visitors • The attractions? • Opportunities for mentoring early career scientists • Exposure to wide range of science topics

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