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An Empirical Research of Post Cold War Liberal Democratic Peace Theory

An Empirical Research of Post Cold War Liberal Democratic Peace Theory. Zhouzhe Chen zc4994a@student.american.edu chzhzh256@hotmail.com SIS-600-A01 Quantative Analysis in International Relations Professor Assen Assenov School of International Service, American University. Research Question.

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An Empirical Research of Post Cold War Liberal Democratic Peace Theory

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  1. An Empirical Research of Post Cold War Liberal Democratic Peace Theory Zhouzhe Chen zc4994a@student.american.edu chzhzh256@hotmail.com SIS-600-A01 Quantative Analysis in International Relations Professor Assen Assenov School of International Service, American University

  2. Research Question • Original Hypothesis/Motive of Study: • Democratic states are less violent than non-democratic states. • Adjusted Hypothesis: • What is democracy? • Three characteristics: • Different parties/groups with different opinions exist. • All the opinions are free to express themselves, and have the chance to be accepted. • If opinions are not accepted, the party/group holding the opinion would not use aggressive methods to get their ideas accepted.

  3. Literature Review Fig 1. Democratic Peace Theory’s Causal Logics *Sebastian Rosato, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 4 November 2003, 586.

  4. Variables: • Dependent Variable: • Number of conflicts (1990 to 2009) • Independent Variables: • Human development • Voice and accountability/ Media Freedom • Government effectiveness and regulatory quality • Rule of Law • Corruption • Literacy rate • Government stability and confidence in governments

  5. Weakness of the Study: • Independent variables are correlated to each other. • A debate of chicken and eggs : some are correlated logically. i.e., government stability vs. conflicts numbers, rule of law vs. corruption. • Some are statistically correlated. i.e., voice and accountability vs. government effectiveness. • The small number of dependent variable.

  6. Data • UCDP/PIRO Conflict Datasets v4-2010 • Chose from 1990 to 2009 • Why post Cold War? • http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_prio_armed_conflict_dataset/ • The World Bank Institute Datasets • Freedom House Datasets

  7. Descriptive Analysis

  8. Descriptive Analysis

  9. Descriptive Analysis

  10. Descriptive Analysis

  11. Descriptive Analysis

  12. Descriptive Analysis

  13. Regression Analysis

  14. Regression Analysis

  15. Regression Analysis

  16. Regression Analysis

  17. Regression Analysis

  18. Regression Analysis

  19. Conclusion/Policy Suggestion • Liberal Democratic Peace Theory may make some sense, yet we still need to develop the criteria of democracy. • Stable internal environment is also important for international relations. • *A country posting strong war may be more violent.

  20. Conclusion/Policy Suggestion • *The second criteria, “able to speak out” may actually not as important as we think. It may be true that public opinion is being dismissed by the governments. • Some domestic features, such as corruption, media freedom, human development, ODA, literacy rate, that many liberals think are closely related to the prevention of war may not be important.

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