Eco-Congregation Local Networks Seminar 26 September 2015

1. Eco-CongregationLocal Networks Seminar26 September 2015 John Ferguson EcoideaM Ltd

2. What will we cover? • Some of the fundamental issues: • Climate change • Resources • Air quality • Energy • Water • Food • …… we won’t cover biodiversity and habitats, desertification, soil erosion, soil contamination, marine pollution, nano-technology, genetic engineering and a few other things that also matter!! • 4 Workshops.

3. Why is it Important….just a reminder? From the fringes to the centre of concern in less than 30 years. Population / Resources / Climate / Energy / Water / Food / Health / Infrastructure / Global Financial . A changing global economy – the fall of nations – an inexorable process – managing change with the wisdom of understanding history and hindsight. If ever there was a time to re-think our priorities and re-vision and re-engineer our future this is probably a good time to really get to grips with it. Is good stewardship of God’s good creation not part of every Christian’s duty?

4. The fundamentals of survival and a dignified life are unchanged since the beginning of time? Environment Infrastructure Society Air to breathe Water / Resources Food to eat Rule of Law Security Spirit Shelter Services Industrial systems

5. Thomas Malthus Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) In“An Essay on the Principles of Population”, published in 1798,Thomas Malthus argued that while population increases in geometric progression, the resources to sustain this growth do not. Thus, if population grows too much faster than food production, this growth is checked by famine, disease, and war.

6. World’s population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus, has multiplied about seven-fold since then. • Measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, world’s total output, now about $40 trillion, was about $700 billion at the time of Malthus. • Clearly, economic growth has been more strongly exponential than that of the demand (population growth) that created it. 45 30 Economy Relative to the 1820 level Population 15 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).

7. The Carbon Challenge - UK

8. Potential pathways 2010-2050 – all require extensive deployment of measures and development of options 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s Power Decarbonise baseload Further expansion and decarbonise mid-merit/peak Buildings Efficiency Low-carbon heat Commercial Residential Hard-to-treat Transport Roll out low-carbon vehicles to fleet Efficiency EV penetration up; Early H2 adoption Efficiency CCS, electrification and other fuel switching? Product substitution? Industry Efficiency on farms, divert waste from landfill More on-farm measures, F-gases, reduce waste and diet impact? Non-CO2 Operational measures, new plane/ship efficiency, whilst demand grows (though possibly constrained) Aviation and shipping

9. EU - Waste

12. Increase Resource Use Efficiency Use less – recycle more

17. Industrial Symbiosis • Analogy for Industrial Symbiosis: • Producers and users of waste materials are the mushrooms connected by the mycelia of material interchange. • Perhaps thousands of different material being exchanged between producers and users. • Where there is no apparent use this forms a research area to find a productive use!

18. Investing in resource efficiency & eco-innovation boosts competitiveness

19. Energy – 10 Key Messages. (Trilema: Security – Equity – Sustainability) • Energy system complexity will increase by 2050. • Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply. • Energy demand expected ot outstrip population growth. • The energy mix in 2050 will mainlystill be fossil based. • Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits- all’ solution to the energy trilemma. • The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices. • A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewables: CC(U)S is important and consumer behaviour needs changing. • CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties up to 2050. • Balancing the energy trilemma means making difficult choices. • Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to deliver benefits to all consumers. • Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver.

20. UK Energy Use Break Down

21. The Global Energy System

22. Global Air Quality 2001 – 2006 (PM)：Global PM2.5 Map

23. UK Electricity Scenarios

24. Who uses it?

25. Global Water. Circa 4x1020 Gallons

26. Per capita water availability 16 Africa 14 12 10 Thousand m3 World 8 Asia 6 4 2 MEast & NAfrica 0 1960 1990 2025 

27. Water Scarcity.

28. Geopolitics of Water

29. Driver - Food • Over the next few decades, the global food system will come under renewed pressure from the combined effects of seven fundamental factors: population growth, the nutrition transition, energy, land, water, labour and climate change. The combined effects will create constraints on food supply and if action is not taken, there is a real potential for demand growth to outstrip increases in global food production. Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy A Chatham House Report – January 2009

30. Food Waste • Food: • £420 per annum per family • = taking1/5 cars off the road • …..and people starve to death every single day….one down side of affluence… http://www.lovefoodhatewaste.com/

31. Food – Price Inflation

32. Spending on food

33. Who eats the most!?

34. What is the quality of what we eat?

35. URBAN FOOD HUBS Food Production - On roof tops, Building basements, derelict land and standard industrial sheds in the City. Short supply chain foods increasing city self sufficiency. Supporting City food production – short supply chains.

36. A Final Thought! • “Nature has enough for our need, but not for our greed”. • Mahatma Gandhi • Be joyful…not worrisome: • We are to be stewards • We are to love and care for God’s creation but not to worship it ……..above all…do not despair…….we take with us a gospel of restoration, peace and hope….!

37. Where do we start to make a difference? • In general terms – technology innovation – behaviour change – national – international policy – trade agreements – market drivers etc. • More than 50% of global population lives in cities.. Generating more than 50% of global economic output. More than 70% of global carbon attributed to cities. • Sustainable Cities initiatives – Transition Towns movement etc… • Communities (however define) ultimately are what matter and a good place to start. • Role of the Church: • Support • Encourage • Lead by example • Innovate in the gaps where possible – practical simple things can make a big difference

38. Workshops • Workshop 1 Topic: Building a Framework for Action on – Community Renewables  including Energy Efficiency and Fuel Poverty? • Workshop 2 Topic: Building a Framework for Action on – Waste: reduce, reuse, recycle • Workshop 3 Topic: Building a Framework for Action on – Local Food Production and Food Poverty • Workshop 4 Topic: Building a Framework for Action on – Conserving the Local Environment

39. Methodology Task 1 for each works-shop: Identify practical activity ideas for each topic that are deliverable (at a community or national level. Small or large). Task 2 for each workshop: List resources – advice – training – other events - guidance etc that would help deliver these ideas. Task 3 for each work-shop: Ranking of ideas – done at end of all workshops. Use of coloured dots. There will also be a separate flip chart called: ‘’Big Ideas – Random Stuff’’