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BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU , Ph.D. ISP & MTA Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government HARVARD UNIVERSITY. BCSIA Library December 2, 2004. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future.

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BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

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  1. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP & MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

  2. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future The Past: 500 years of historical relations (1492 – 1992) The Present: Strategic relations since 1992 (“win-win”) The Future: Crossroads ahead? (“win-win” or “loose-loose”) Mustafa Kibaroglu

  3. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future ...Ottomans embracedthe persecuted Jews of Spain in 1492 ...Jews have been loyal to the Ottoman Sultan ...Jews occupied high ranks in the Ottoman administration ...Jews supported Turkey’s War of Liberation in 1919-1922 ...200 000 Jews had minority status in Turkey after Lausanne ...Most Jews gone to Israel but some 25 000 remain in Turkey Mustafa Kibaroglu

  4. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future ...Turkey recognized the State of Israel in 1949 ...Ben Gurion sought close relations with Adnan Menderes ...Turkish domestic politics and religion obstructed relations ...NATO membership limited Turkey’s interest in M. East ...Yom Kippur War and OPEC crisis deteriorated relations ...Coup in Turkey; Jerusalem Law; Intifada worsened Mustafa Kibaroglu

  5. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future ...Gulf crisis & demise of USSR made Turkey turn to M. East ...Peace Processes lifted Arabs’ tacit embargo on Turkey ...Redefinition of the relations as “alliance”; “axis”; “entente” ...Common concerns: “rogue states” & military capabilities ...Military cooperation agreement (1996): “odd men out” ...Turkey becomes “virtual strategic depth” of Israel Mustafa Kibaroglu

  6. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future Mustafa Kibaroglu

  7. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future ...Potentially clashing interests over northern Iraq ...Turks’ concerns with an independent Kurdish state in Iraq ...Israelis’ concerns with “Islamic” Turkish government(s) ...Turks’ misperceptionsabout Jewish influence in US politics ...Bitter political statements by Turkish statesmen ...Israelis may prefer relying on Kurds rather than Turks Mustafa Kibaroglu

  8. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future Mustafa Kibaroglu

  9. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future ...“win-win” if confidence and trust can be restored ...“loose-loose” if misperceptions & miscalculation persist ...War against terror cannot be won with nukes or shields ...Intelligence & information gathering is essential ...Turkey’s commonalities with M. East & C. Asia are crucial ...Strategic wisdom must prevail on both sides or both loose Mustafa Kibaroglu

  10. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP & MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

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