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IAA Space Debris Committee Meeting - Paris, March 22nd, 2016

The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Space Debris Committee meets to discuss the agenda, exchanges, and the situation report on space debris. Membership details and feedback from the Jerusalem 2015 conference are also discussed.

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IAA Space Debris Committee Meeting - Paris, March 22nd, 2016

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  1. International Academy of AstronauticsIAA Space Debris Committee Paris, March 22nd, 2016

  2. Agenda • IAC • 1.1. IAA Space DebrisCommittee • 1.2. Lessons learned from Jerusalem 2015 • 1.3. Status of Space Debris Symposium for Guadalajara 2016 • 1.4. Preparation of Space Debris Symposium for Adelaide 2017 • 2. Exchanges • 2.1. Pastevents: workshops, conferences, congresses, … • 2.2. Ongoing • 2.3. On the Agenda • 2.4. New achievements • 2.5. Round table – Open discussion • 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report •  Meeting restricted to Study Group members

  3. 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee General frame: • Officially created within IAA in 2012 • Independent Committee • Permanent Committee • Attachment to Commission V questionable  Actions of the Committee: • Position Paper on Orbital Debris in 1993, revised in 2000 • Position Paper SG 5.1 on Space Debris Mitigation in 2006 • Position Paper SG 5.5 on Space Debris Remediation in 2013 • Participation to SG 5.10 on Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations • Situation Report Paper SG 5.14 ongoing, to be discussed today

  4. 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Terms of Reference (recall): Scope Coordination of all activities related to Space Debris within the Academy • Organization of the IAA Symposium on Space Debris A6 for the IAC, proposals for Keynote Lectures within the A6 Symposium, or Highlight Lectures in the more general IAC frame, • Organization of any stand-alone conference on Space Debris on behalf the Academy, • Coordination of the Academy sponsoring, participation and contribution to selected conferences dedicated to Space Debris, such as for instance the ESA Conference on Space Debris in Darmstadt, • Coordination of the Space Debris contribution in conferences not dedicated to Space Debris, but where some sessions may be devoted to the topic, sponsored by the Academy, • Dissemination of information among the members of the Committee, mainly during regular meetings taking place twice a year, before the IAC and during the IAA March meetings in Paris.

  5. 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Membership: No need to be member of IAA ! • Members of the IAA A6 Symposium Program Committee (chairs & rapporteurs) • Members of the Program Committee of other IAA sponsored conferences with Space Debris concerns • Members of Space Debris related working groups (IADC, UNCOPUOS, COSPAR, ISO …) • Academics, Labs, Universities, Industrials… working on the topic However, it is requested to be somehow “active”: • Participation to the meetings • Debriefing of activities during the meetings • Cross information with other members • Contribution to studies and reports Two meetings per year: • One just before each year’s IAC  Includes the status of the sessions, workshops, round tables… of the week • One just before or during the IAC March Meeting in Paris  Includes the pre-selection of the abstracts for the following IAC

  6. 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Official membership: Co-Chair: Bonnal Christophe Co-Chair: Klinkrad Heiner Co-Chair: Liou Jer-ChyiMembers:Agapov Vladimir Ailor William HAkahoshi Yasuhiro Alby Fernand Anselmo Luciano Anz-Meador Phillip Berend Nicolas Brachet Gerard Cazaux ChristianChristiansen Eric LCrowther RichardDiPentino FrankDolado-Perez Juan-CarlosFaucher PascalFinkleman David Flury Walter Francesconi Alessandro Ganeshan A SHanada Toshiya Hussey W John Hyde James Jah Moriba K. Kelso T. SKibe Seishiro Kouprianov Vladimir Krag Holger Krisko Paula HMasson-Zwaan TanjaMatney Mark McKnight Darren SMeshcheryakov Sergei AOltrogge Daniel L.Pardini Carmen Piergentili Fabrizio Schaefer Frank Schildknecht Thomas Stokes Hedley van Breukelen Eddy DWiedemann Carsten Yakovlev Michael Yasaka Tetsuo New on-going (but agreedupon) * Fitz-Coy Norman Flohrer Tim Lewis Hugh Mathieu Charlotte Metz Manuel Sorge Marlon Spencer David Fuentes Nathalie • Not yetformalmembers Proposed Fuentes Nathalie To beremoved Kouprianov Vladimir van Breukelen Eddy D 44 + 7 members Attendance list for today: see Appendix 1. * You probably did not answer the invitation from IAA…

  7. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015

  8. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 • Nearly half of the selected papers are not presented! • Special attention to this phenomenon within IPC Steering Group • General question relative to attractiveness of the Technical Program

  9. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 #2 Number of papers presented #1 Attendance, Min, Max, Avg

  10. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015

  11. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015

  12. 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 Statistics: • Rather well equilibrated among sessions • HVI - Protection A6.3 a bit weaker as usual, due to hyper-specialization • A6.2: 11 papers presented may be a bit to high but no withdrawal… • A6.6: #3 highest “maximal attendance” and #1 highest “minimal attendace” of the congress • Average of 57 participants, maximal, per session (not inc A6.10): good, but less than Toronto (73). • Globally 3 papers out of 4 presented: good figure at IAC level, but could be improved • Very poor Joint Session A6.10-V.5 with Young Professionals • All reports handled by Rapporteurs; thank you!

  13. 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of IAC abstracts since 2008 2716 2616 2015 2016 2716 abstracts = Slightly less than the average of the past 8 years From 78 countries (new IAC record)

  14. 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Rate of arrival of abstracts (for fun…) Days before deadline

  15. 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Abstracts per symposium 5th best (but used to bebetter…)

  16. 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of abstracts, Space Debris Symposium, since 2008 Statusbefore the selection, IPC March 24th meeting: 155 abstracts • Thankyou to all chairs and rapporteurs for proactive actions justbefore the official deadline; itreallyhelped…

  17. 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of Oral sessions, Space Debris Symposium, since 2000 + Interactive Presentation session, • Back to 9 Oral + IP this year: maximal number without overlaping • 1 Joint session with Space Security Committee • No YGVF or GNF

  18. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 A few inconsistencies between MoM of Jerusalem, IAF web site, and IAC Call for Papers A6: Space Debris Symposium Liou – Bonnal The Symposium will address the complete spectrum of technical issues of space debris: measurements, modelling, risk assessment in space and on the ground, reentry, hypervelocity impacts and protection, mitigation and standards, and Space Surveillance. A6.1: Measurements:Oltrogge - Schildknecht – Agapov This session will address advanced ground and space-based measurement techniques, relating processing methods, and results of space debris characterization. A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis:Pardini – Sorge – Bastida-Virgili This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance. A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection:Fitz-Coy – Schäfer – XXX The session will address passive protection, shielding and damage predictions. Shielding aspects will be supported by experimental and computational results of HVI tests. Use of HVI techniques for debris mitigation. A6.4: Mitigation and Standards:Krag – Cazaux – Yasaka This session will focus on the definition and implementation of debris prevention and reduction measures and vehicle passive protection. The session will also address space debris mitigation guidelines and standards that exist already or are in preparation at the national or international level.

  19. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues: Piergentili – Kibe – Santoni This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions and Identify implementation difficulties. A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts:Berend – Innocenti –Haussmann This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions and identify implementation difficulties. A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: Kelso – Dolado-Perez – Wiedemann This session will address the multiple aspects associated to safe operations in Space dealing with Space Debris, including operational observations, orbit determination, catalogue build-up and maintenance, data aggregation from different sources, relevant data exchanges standards and conjunction analyses. A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Economic Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal Plattard – Spencer – Soucek–Finkleman This session will deal with the non-technical aspect of space debris mitigation and removal. Political, legal and institutional aspects includes role of IADC and UNCOPUOS and other multilateral bodies. Economic issues including insurance, financial incentives and funding for space debris mitigation and removal. The role of international cooperation in addressing these issues will be considered A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation Jah – Klinkrad – XXX This session will address aspects of space debris orbit determination related to assessment of raw and derived data accuracy, optical measurements processing and modelling and risk analysis of space debris A6.P: Interactive Presentations,Yasaka – McKnight – Bonnal

  20. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 A6: Space Debris Symposium Number of Abstracts Total number of abstracts: 155 A6.1: Measurements: 19 A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis:22 A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection:8 A6.4: Mitigation and Standards:9 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues:18 A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts:30 A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: 15 A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Economic Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal: 16 A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation: 12 A6.P: Posters: 6

  21. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 • Recall of a few basic rules • Avoid the No-shows from Jerusalem: • A6.6: Alaa Hussein, Xin Qu • A6.8: Olga Stelmakh • Be cautious with withdrawn; try to make sure they will come: • A6.1: Wei Niu • A6.3: Japneet Singh • A6.4: Michèle Lavagna, Emma Kerr, Shraddha Gupta • A6.5: Braven Leung, Mariella Graziano • A6.6: Alessandro Chiesa, NevoTaaseh • A6.7: Noelia Sanchez Ortiz • A6.8: AnnamariaNassisi, Susumu Yoshitomi • A6.9: Joseph Gangestad, Piyush Mehta, MirkoTrisolini, John McVey, MichielZitterstein

  22. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 • Recall of a few basic rules • Selection process: • Check completeness of web site if you started preselection • Check equilibrium of your session • Not to many Americans, Europeans or Chinese • No duplication of subject, at least within one given session • Beware the “risky papers” or choose one more than recommended • Avoid “political” papers or very general roadmaps • Interactive Presentations: as many as you want, provided they are good • Dedicated zone • Competition for best Interactive Presentation Award • Be careful to follow the request of an author: O, IP, or open • Beware: 4 manuscripts are Interactive Presentation, although not in IP session •  To be transferred to IP session (2 from A6.1, 2 from A6.3) • Numerous students (54): keep a good equilibrium and select only if promising

  23. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 Recall of a few basic rules: how to fill the table Thursday morning • Normally 9 papers per session, but 10 is recommended considering one or more “risky” papers • In case of “merger”, identify the “prime” • Be sure that all abstracts submitted to your session are finally allocated or rejected • Comment when rejection a manuscript • Once finished, give to Christophe, please, and do not leave prior to cross-check.

  24. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016

  25. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016

  26. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 Plenaries: • Selected list (out of 29 proposals): Highlight Lectures:  Selected list not yet frozen – IPC SG meeting tomorrow - Could include: Pluto, Saturn, New Shepard Late Breaking News : - SpaceX • Others will be decided later

  27. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 Plenary Event PE 4: Projection and Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment in the Light of Planned Mega-Constellation Deployments • Prepared by Heiner and Jer-Chyi

  28. 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 2016 Plenary Event PE 4: Projection and Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment in the Light of Planned Mega-Constellation Deployments • Prepared by Heiner and Jer-Chyi

  29. 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 • Need to rotate a bit, and to find “fresh blood” • But, need to find colleagues who will effectively attend

  30. 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 A6: Space Debris Symposium Liou – Bonnal The Symposium will address the complete spectrum of technical issues of space debris: measurements, modelling, risk assessment in space and on the ground, reentry, hypervelocity impacts and protection, mitigation and standards, and Space Surveillance. A6.1: Measurements:DiPentino - Schildknecht – Cowardin This session will address advanced ground and space-based measurement techniques, relating processing methods, and results of space debris characterization. A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis:Pardini – Oltrogge – Sorge This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance. A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection:Fitz-Coy – Schäfer – Francesconi The session will address passive protection, shielding and damage predictions. Shielding aspects will be supported by experimental and computational results of HVI tests. Use of HVI techniques for debris mitigation. A6.4: Mitigation and Standards:Finkleman – Cazaux – Krag This session will focus on the definition and implementation of debris prevention and reduction measures and vehicle passive protection. The session will also address space debris mitigation guidelines and standards that exist already or are in preparation at the national or international level.

  31. 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues: Piergentili – Santoni – Bastida-Virgili This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions and Identify implementation difficulties. A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts:Berend – Innocenti – Haussmann This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions and identify implementation difficulties. A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: Kelso – Dolado-Perez – Wiedemann This session will address the multiple aspects associated to safe operations in Space dealing with Space Debris, including operational observations, orbit determination, catalogue build-up and maintenance, data aggregation from different sources, relevant data exchanges standards and conjunction analyses. A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Economic Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal Plattard – McKnight – Soucek This session will deal with the non-technical aspect of space debris mitigation and removal. Political, legal and institutional aspects includes role of IADC and UNCOPUOS and other multilateral bodies. Economic issues including insurance, financial incentives and funding for space debris mitigation and removal. The role of international cooperation in addressing these issues will be considered A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation Jah – Klinkrad – Lewis This session will address aspects of space debris orbit determination related to assessment of raw and derived data accuracy, optical measurements processing and modelling and risk analysis of space debris A6.P: Posters,Yasaka – McKnight – Bonnal

  32. 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 • Any ideas for Adelaide 2017? • Joint Session? • Could be interesting with B1 Earth Observation and/or B2 Space Communication and Navigation • Could be interesting with B4 Small Satellites, reviewing practices, identifying future trends => OK • Could be discussed with D2 Space Transportation to have a good status of the situation, if operators agree to explain what they do… • Could be worth a session with E7 = IISL • If we decide for such a joint session, Darren volunteers to start discussions and prepare the ground • Other ideas? • Keynote lecture at the beginning of one of our sessions in line with Host country (Australia and Space Debris…)

  33. 2.1. Past events • 6th Workshop on End of Life • CNES-HQ, Paris, 28 January 2016 • See presentation • Reinvent Space Conference • 9-13 November 2015, Oxford, UK • Small satellites, debris • Discussions on licensing by UK • Mining, NEO, …

  34. 2.2. Ongoing • IAA studies • Two following pages, for information • SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations • Dedicated meeting on Monday 21 March 2016 • See following pages

  35. 2.2. Ongoing

  36. 2.2. Ongoing

  37. 2.2. Ongoing • SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations

  38. 2.2. Ongoing • SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations (ctd)

  39. 2.3. On the agenda • 4th Workshop on Space Debris Modeling and Remediation • CNES-HQ, Paris, 6 – 8 June 2016 • - Modeling, including uncertainties and specificities coming from small satellites and constellations; • - High level actions, road-maps, associated to debris remediation; • - Remediation system studies, including those relative to small debris; • - Design of specific concepts; • - Associated technologies; • - GNC aspects, rendezvoussensors and algorithms, de-spin, control during de-boost, … ; • - Lasers; • - Economics, insurance, intellectual property; • - Policy, national security, international cooperation… aspects on aspects of debris remediation. • Program Committee: ESA-HQ (Luisa Innocenti), ESA-ESOC (Holger Krag), DLR (Manuel Metz), JAXA (Satomi Kawamoto), NASA-JSC (Jer-Chyi Liou), SWF (Brian Weeden), Roscosmos, (ValeriyTrushlyakov), UK Space Agency (Richard Crowther) , CNSA (Li Ming), and CNR-ISTI (Luciano Anselmo), in addition to 4 CNES, CNES-HQ (Pascal Faucher), CNES-Toulouse (Christian Cazaux & Marie-Christine Desjean) and CNES- Launchers (Bonnal)

  40. 2.3. On the agenda • 8th IAASS • Melbourne, Florida - USA, 18 – 20 May 2016 • See following pages • Small sats workshop • 23rd April 2016 • Cal Poly U in SLO • Some debris presentations • Small sats conference • Logan, Utah • http://www.smallsat.org/ • Space Risk Forum • Dubai • Coordinated by Insuranceorldspaceriskforum.com • Www.worldspaceriskforum.com

  41. 2.3. On the agenda

  42. 2.3. On the agenda

  43. 2.4. New achievements

  44. ECSS SDWG & ISO items ISO TC20/SC14 ORBITAL DEBRIS MITIGATION STANDARDS WG1 DESIGN WG2 INTG & TEST WG3 OPERATIONS WG4 ENVIRON. WG5 MANAGEMENT WG6 MATERIALS WG7 (ODWG) Process-Based implementation of M/D Env. Models (14200) transfer to WG7 Disposal at GEO (26872) Space Debris Mitigation(24113) Tests of small-scale satellites (19683) Disposal in LEO (16164) SDM Design and Operation Manual for S/C (18146) Earth atmosphere density (14222) Estimating mass remaining usable propellant(23339) • Notes • As of February 2015 • Abbreviated titles used • Text colour code: • Green: IS published • Brown: FDIS stage • Red: DIS stage • Blue: CD stage • Black: WD stage • Items of ECCS high priority underlined • Controversial items not shown. • To be added: TR – SDM Design and Opes Manual for LV Test procedures for S/C material ejecta upon HVI (11227) Re-entry Risk Magment for unmanned S/C (27875) Estimation of orbit lifetime (27852) Orbit determination and estimation (11233) Survivability of unmanned S/C against SD and MM impacts (16126) Avoiding collisions with orbiting objects (16158 TR) Disposal of Orbital Launch Stages (16699) Prevention of Break-up of of un-manned S/C (16127)

  45. 2.4. New achievements

  46. 2.5. Round table – Open discussion • Space Orbital objectbehavioral Sciences • See Appendix • Why Should We Estimate the Future Costs of Orbital Debris? • Discussion proposed by Joe Carroll: see Appendix • Business model for ADR – Preliminary ideas: See Appendix • Proposed Series of Orbital Debris Remediation Activities • Risks of atmospheric re-entries on aircraft • See Appendix

  47. 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report Goal Reference status of the Space Debris problematic, acting as an update of the IAA Position Papers 1993 and Revision from 2001, taking into account the IAA Position Papers on Space Debris Mitigation (SG5.1) and on Space Debris Remediation (SG5.5). Available elements from on-going SG5.10 devoted to Policy, Legal and Economic Issues in Orbital Debris Removal will also be included.  Progress in past six months: • Good progress these last days!... • Finalization of the paper ongoing Today: 132 pages, Completed at 99%

  48. 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report Structure Co-Editors: Darren McKnight & Christophe Bonnal Executive summary Darren McKnight 3 pages Table of contents 2 pages 1. Introduction, recall of scope and past studies: Darren McKnight 3 pages 2. Present status: Heiner Klinkrad 12 pages 3. Measurements: Thomas Schildknecht & Vladimir Agapov 6 pages 4. Space surveillance: Cazaux, Finkleman, Alby, Oltrogge 15 pages 5. Collision risks: Cazaux, Finkleman, Alby, Oltrogge 4 pages 6. Reentering space objects: Holger Krag & Marlon Sorge 13 pages 7. Future environment: Paula Krisko & Juan-Carlos Dolado-Perez 16 pages 8. Debris mitigation: Manuel Metz & J-C. Liou 11 pages 9. Remediation: Darren McKnight & Seishiro Kibe 10 pages 10. Protection: Frank Schäfer 12 pages 11. Legal: Tanja Masson-Zwaan 9 pages 12. International aspects: Charlotte Mathieu & MYS Prasad 6 pages 13. References & Standards: Christophe Bonnal 7 pages Appendixes 3 pages Total 132 pages Status before the meeting Internal reviews from Akira, Carmen, Richard, Luciano, Hedley...

  49. 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report • General remarks: • Thank you to all contributors, including last-minute… :o) • Current text includes reviews from Akira, Carmen, Hedley, Luciano • Choice is made to write 1,000 km, rather than 1 000 or 1,000km (Acta Astronautica style) • Choice is made to duplicate references throughout the chapters • All numerical data will have to be harmonized prior to publication (not done yet) • More generally, harmonization (figures, tables, references) will be done during polishing • We should add much more references; don’t hesitate to put your own! • For future revisions, we need inputs from other contributors (China, India, S-Korea, …) • Status report to IAA distributed, as requested, on Feb. 23rd; additional discussions in Commission V: • PDF version freely accessible on IAA web-site • Revision of the pdf version whenever considered adequate  “permanently” updated “living” document, acting as Reference • Initial hard-copy publication agreed by CNES • Once the text is complete, Darren and Christophe will do polishing, then send to IAA for Peer Reviewing (July 2016?)

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