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February 2008 Tornado Outbreak: Analysis and Warning System Performance Review

The February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak led to 63 confirmed tornadoes, including 11 fatalities and 5 EF-4 tornadoes, resulting in extensive destruction across five states. Despite advanced warning communications from the National Weather Service, the event revealed gaps in awareness and preparedness. This report analyzes the performance of the warning systems, detailing the effectiveness of forecasts and alert dissemination. Findings include an average tornado warning lead time of 16 minutes and suggestions for future improvements in radar technology and communication strategies.

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February 2008 Tornado Outbreak: Analysis and Warning System Performance Review

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  1. National Weather Service February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak Performance – Warning Systems Kenneth E. Graham Chief Meteorological Services Division

  2. Busy 2008 Greensburg, KS

  3. Super Tuesday • In terms of loss, the numbers are devastating: • 63 confirmed tornadoes • 11 killer tornadoes • 5 very violent EF 4 tornadoes with more than 166 mph winds • 57 people killed and more than 350 injured in five states • Extensive damage across the affected areas • Worst outbreak in over 20 years • Other Impacts to the Nation • Economic loss due to damage • Large storm that included winter weather

  4. Super Tuesday Even with advanced notice of the event and individual severe storms, there was still a large loss of life

  5. Communication Prior to Outbreak SPC Day 6Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Jan. 30, 2008 Valid: Feb 5-6, 2008 Tornado, Wind, Hail Reports NWS began publicizing the potential for severe weather 6 days in advance of the outbreak.

  6. Communication Prior to Outbreak Hatched area depicts the potential for significant EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Sun (2am), Feb 3. Valid: Feb 5-6 Day 1TornadoProbability Issued and Valid Tue, Feb 5 NWS forecasts were further refined leading up to February 5, 2008

  7. Communication Prior to Outbreak • NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) advertised the potential for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks (HWOs) as early as Thurs., January 31, 2008. • Subsequent HWOs throughout the weekend refined the timing and magnitude of the threat. • WFOs used conference calls, Go-To Meeting, email/text alerts, and graphical HWOs to provide awareness. • WFOs used IEM Chat and 800MHz to communicate with media and emergency manager partners.

  8. What Happened?

  9. What Happened?

  10. What Happened?

  11. What Happened?

  12. What Happened?

  13. Storm Based Warnings Previously

  14. Fujita vs Enhanced Fujita

  15. Jackson, TN: Tornado through Union University at 7:15pm damaging several buildings, including two women’s dorms. 51 people injured, 9 seriously Tornado warning issued at 6:36pm (39 min lead time) Westmoreland, Castilian Springs, TN: Long track supercell tornadoes caused widespread damage, and a massive gas explosion occurred at Columbia Gulf Transmission Pipeline. 22 fatalities were reported in three counties (Sumner, Trousdale, Macon) Tornado warning issued at 9:41pm and expanded at 10:08pm (26 min lead time at gas plant, average 12 min lead time for 3 counties) Clinton, AR: Tornado destroyed 27 homes and several businesses Emergency management reports 3 deaths/ 70 injuries Tornado warning issued at 5:23pm (19 min lead time) Initial Findings These particular events received extensive media coverage:

  16. Initial Findings • Local WFO experts and national assessment teams have surveyed the impacted areas, talked to victims, local EMs, and media. • Preliminary findings show people knew they were in danger but thought they were in a safe place. • The event was well advertised • It was a night/evening event and people were in their homes • With an EF 4 or higher tornado, the best way to survive is to be underground • Most didn’t have tornado shelters or bunkers to seek shelter

  17. Initial Findings • Performance: • 217 tornado warnings over 2 day period with accuracy of 87% • Average lead time for entire event was 16 minutes • Average lead time for the killer tornadoes was 20 minutes • Lead time for tornado that struck women’s dorm at Union University in TN was 39 minutes • Lead time for tornado that struck gas plant in TN was 26 minutes

  18. Arkansas A license plate was driven into a tree by an EF4 tornado in Izard Co. on Feb 5. The plate has been modified for privacy.

  19. Tennessee

  20. Alabama Jackson County Lawrence/Morgan County

  21. Future Improvements • Improving Services for Future: • Radar Advancements • Super Resolution Doppler Radar • Dual-Polarization Radars • Phased Array Radar • Warning Dissemination • Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) • Cell Phone • Reverse 911 • In Car Information • GIS • Storm Decision Aids • Uncertainty Communication

  22. Future Improvements PAR PAR KTLX KTLX Advancements In Radar Technology Phased Array compared to WSR-88D

  23. Future Improvements • Improved Social Science Integration • WAS*IS • Strong Emergency Management Ties • Target Those At Risk • Continue Strong Partnerships Related to NOAA Weather Radio • Transmitters • Receivers • Weather Radio Improvement Project (WRIP)

  24. Continue to Grow Our All Hazards Partnership… …Incident Support

  25. Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov 301-713-1858 x105

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