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Overview of Model Enhancements in Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting (Oct 2011)

This summary outlines significant enhancements made to the Genesys model as discussed in the Resource Adequacy Steering Committee meeting on October 4, 2011. Key changes include the modeling of hourly loads and wind as random draws from historical temperature and wind data. Enhancements to slice logic allow BPA's system to operate separately from the rest of the PNW, while hydro shaping and thermal commitment logic improvements enhance decision-making. New options for borrowed hydro and spot market purchases have also been implemented, along with potential future improvements to thermal logic and storage regulation.

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Overview of Model Enhancements in Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting (Oct 2011)

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  1. Genesys Model Enhancements October 4, 2011 NW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting Gwendolyn S Shearer

  2. Summary of Model Changes • Hourly Loads & Wind • Slice Logic • Operating Year Changed • Hydro Shaping • Borrowed Hydro • Purchases • Thermal Commitment • Transmission losses • New Outputs Gwendolyn S Shearer

  3. Hourly Loads & Wind Change • Changed to random draws from temperature years for loads and wind years for wind • Wind is modeled as a nameplate capacity at a site and wind capacity factors by hour • Draws can be random, sequential, or lockstep with water condition • Wind is a load reduction resource Gwendolyn S Shearer

  4. Hourly Loads Gwendolyn S Shearer

  5. Hourly Wind Gwendolyn S Shearer

  6. Slice Logic – Fed Only • Can now model BPA’s system separate from rest of PNW because of slice logic • Slice logic mimics BPA’s contractual obligation to Slice customers • User specifies which resources are sliced or not sliced • Amount of generation going to sliced customers calculated Gwendolyn S Shearer

  7. Hydro Shaping Improved • Look ahead decision-making improved • Day average hydro shaped to meet hourly load improved • Hourly hydro logic improved to better meet load Gwendolyn S Shearer

  8. Hydro Shaping Gwendolyn S Shearer

  9. Borrowed Hydro Option • Borrowed Hydro is hydro that is below firm rights and can be used under certain conditions, specified by the user • Measure of when borrowing hydro improved Gwendolyn S Shearer

  10. Borrowed Hydro Gwendolyn S Shearer

  11. Purchase Options • Spot market purchases are available in all hours specified by the user at a given price • Purchase ahead resources are available looking ahead two days Gwendolyn S Shearer

  12. Thermal Logic Option • Coal can be modeled as must run for a day (important for overgeneration spill calculation) Gwendolyn S Shearer

  13. Possible Future Improvements • Thermal commitment logic • Treaty Storage Regulation • Better shaping of hydro within month • Incorporate LOLP calculation within model Gwendolyn S Shearer

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