Multicriteria Decision Support for Coastal Aquaculture and Marine Site Evaluations

1. Multicriteria Decision Support for Coastal Aquaculture andMarine Site Evaluations Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station AquaNet IV

2. AN5: New AquaNet Project • Interdisciplinary team with background in management science, systems, oceanography, and fisheries • Developing tools for scenario analysis, long and short-term decision support, and governance related to aquaculture and other conflicting marine uses • Developing the basis for the complex ICZM • AN5 Project Website: http://www.aquanet.lixar.net AquaNet IV

3. Motivation/Objectives • Increasing emphasis on ICZM - Locally, nationally and internationally • Integrated science for integrated management, systematic evaluation, cumulative interactions • Spatial-temporal ecosystem evaluation includes aquaculture as well as other traditional marine uses • Multiple players with different perspectives • Required comparison of policies and biological and social impacts on governance • Multicriteria valuation, different perspectives of many participants in the decision process AquaNet IV

4. Case Study Focus • Lower Bay of Fundy • Fisheries and aquaculture interactions • Local coastal zone sites and habitat issues • Specific integration of ecosystem and socioeconomic aspects • Multiple, diverse, and overlapping marine spatial-temporal uses • Consideration of cumulative effects • Different perspectives to ecosystem inventory by different participants AquaNet IV

5. Participants’ Perspectives from Pairwise Comparisons Goal Resources, Habitat, Toxicology, Activities Herring, Scallops, Lobster, Urchins Salt Marshes, Rockweed Chemicals Weirs, Traps, Drags Site Evaluation Methodology and Model Summary Marine Site Components Multicriteria Analysis (Goal Hierarchy) Site Options: GIS Evaluations (participant independent) as function of the spatial-temporal inventory AquaNet IV

6. Model results: Sample overlays Grand Manan Island, N.B. T1 T2 Tg2 Tg1 Tg3 Tg4 T5 Selected areas for evaluation denoted as Ti. T5 T3 T3 T4 T6 T4 T6

7. Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different Participants AquaNet IV

8. Decision Support Scope • Spatial-temporal and marine site specific valuations • GIS and developed decision support model • SABS data on site interactions, inventory and use • Results from direct feedback and perspectives of multiple participants • Evaluation of novel multicriteria decision model with sensitivity analysis AquaNet IV

9. Work-to-date • Applications in N.B.-Bay of Fundy • Interaction cases - herring-lobster; herring-salmon; fish health • Potential involvement in Marine Planning Strategy (DFO/NBDAFA) • Critical analyses of multicriteria approaches • Alternative MCDM approaches • Acquisition and use of modelling software • Development of different strategies and approaches • M.Sc. thesis (Yanlai Zhao, Systems Science) • PDF work AquaNet IV

10. Conclusions-in-progress • Address conflicts by defining and evaluating them in a policy context • Develop measurable indicators of differences and impacts • Search for common ground via sensitivity analysis on data and hierarchy importance weights • Provide negotiable decision support framework for all participants in the uncertain, complex environment AquaNet IV