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Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts

Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts. Or, Why the ‘Fly-Over’ States are More Important than We Thought. Phyllis Steckel, RG Earthquake Insight LLC Washington, Mo. Earthquake Risks in the Central US. Hazards . Risks. Ground-shaking Liquefaction Lateral spreading

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Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts

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  1. Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts Or, Why the ‘Fly-Over’ States are More Important than We Thought

  2. Phyllis Steckel, RG Earthquake Insight LLC Washington, Mo.

  3. Earthquake Risks in the Central US Hazards Risks • Ground-shaking • Liquefaction • Lateral spreading • Slumping • Landslides • Aftershocks • Direct loss of life & property • Business interruption • Uninsured losses • Loss of infrastructure • Loss of market • Loss of market share

  4. “Fly-Over States” East & West Coasts have • Most population • Economic power • Political heavyweights • International gateways • Technology centers • “Emerging” incubators

  5. “Fly-Over States” • Unique process facilities and industrial resources • Critical transportation corridors • National well-being depends on Central US

  6. Key Commodities

  7. New Madrid Area • Corporation’s largest soybean seed production plant • $60M investment, built in 2011 • 50-acre footprint; 129-acre site • 65 employees

  8. New Madrid Area • Primary aluminum – North America’s largest foil producer • Electrical and cable supply markets • Foundry alloy for vehicle wheels, hubs, & gas pump nozzles

  9. New Madrid Area • Coal-fired power plant • On banks of Mississippi River • Third-largest electric utility in Missouri

  10. Southeast Missouri • City-owned power plant • Coal-fired • Straddles liquefaction features from 1811-12 earthquakes

  11. ‘Swamp east’ Missouri

  12. Little River Drainage District • LRDD formed by landowners  many other drainage districts! • Designed and built 1908-1928  infrastructure • Many engineers & workers from Panama Canal project

  13. Little River Drainage District

  14. Little River Drainage District • Diverts runoff from the Ozarks to the Mississippi • Channelized surface waters between the Mississippi and the St. Francis rivers • Productive industrialized agriculture now

  15. “The Delta” of Missouri & Arkansas • Water table near surface • Near-flat surface topography • Shows evidence of past uplifts & downdrops from earthquakes

  16. Northeast Arkansas • Mini-mills  steel recycling • Second-largest steel producing area in the US • Mostly structural steel • New $1.1B+ steel “super project” begun in 2013

  17. Northeast Arkansas • Steel industry suppliers • Arkansas Aeroplex – one of longest runways in US • Engineered drainages

  18. Regional Critical Facilities • Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant – located in floodplain • Opened in 1952 as only US-owned uranium enrichment facility • Owned by US Dept of Energy; privately operated • Closure, decontamination & demolition in progress

  19. Regional Critical Facilities • Critical National Geospatial Intelligence Agency facilities are located in St. Louis and Arnold, Mo.

  20. Critical Transportation • Air transport & logistics • Railroad • Trucking • River barge • Pipeline

  21. Air Transport • Memphis: world’s busiest cargo airport • Cargo super-hub • ‘America’s Distribution Center’ • FedEx (30,000+) in MEM • 17% of Memphis workers in transportation – highest in the country

  22. Critical Rail Transportation • Rail transport system at/near capacity • Critical concentration in central US • Memphis Intermodal serves 26% US population, 30% of US output

  23. Critical Highway Transportation • Memphis, Little Rock, & St. Louis: busiest east-west trucking corridors in US • Interstates 55, 44, 64, 57, 70, 40 • Hundreds of trucking terminals

  24. Critical River Transportation • Moves commodities within one-third of US • Memphis is fourth-largest inland port in US • St. Louis is second-largest by ton-miles

  25. Critical River Transportation • Memphis #1 in foreign import tonnage • ~20,000+ jobs • ~$10B+ economic impact • Coal, grain, ores, steel, cotton,

  26. Critical Pipeline Transportation

  27. Critical Inventory Exposure • Memphis inventoriessurgical supplies, house-hold goods, auto parts, pharmaceuticals, etc. • Order by midnight, next-day delivery • Headquarters & customers elsewhere

  28.  ‘Fly-Over’ States Critical Much of the country’s inventory and resources are located in or travel through the central US.

  29. Much of the country’s inventory and resources are exposed to earthquake hazards and earthquake risks that are generally unrecognized.

  30. Sustainable Disaster Recovery • Depends on recognizing potential big-picture impacts • Depends on leadership to take action to mitigate big-picture impacts

  31. Any questions? Phyllis Steckel psteckel@charter.net

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