Migration Tracking: Assessing the Economic S ize and Impact of Snowbirds in Yuma, Arizona

1. Migration Tracking:Assessing the Economic Size and Impact of Snowbirds in Yuma, Arizona Jada Lindblom, Dr. Woojin Lee, Dr. Christine Vogt, Samuel Baik Arizona State University Center for Sustainable Tourism Presented at the Travel and Tourism Research Association Greater Western Chapter Annual Conference April 20, 2018

2. Outline Yuma overview Population and research questions Methods Initial findings (from event surveys) Discussion

3. Yuma County, AZ • Agricultural, desert county in southwestern Arizona, adjacent to Mexico and California • Population: 196,000 (est.); 93,000 in Yuma city • Popular destination for “snowbirds” (winter seasonal visitors who stay more than 30 days) • Hosts an estimated 21,728mobile home and RV lots • 45 RV parks are members of Visit Yuma, plus others! • Known for pleasant winter climate, affordability, golf courses, attractive scenery and historic main street

4. Yuma County Location – sand, lettuce, and views of Mexico YUMA

5. Research Impetus • Yuma County government and tourism office staff were beginning to see signs of: • A downtown in visitation • Changing visitor interests and needs • With these shifts in mind, what does the era of retirement of the baby boomer generation mean for a snowbird-dependent destination such as Yuma?

6. Research Questions • Primary question: • What is the economic impact of winter seasonal visitors in Yuma County, AZ? • Subquestions: • What are the demographics of these visitors and their travel parties? • When do most visitors arrive and depart?/How long do they stay? • Which activities, lodging, and transportation do snowbirds prefer? • Are visitors satisfied with their experiences in Yuma? • What more could Yuma offer to attract visitors or gain repeat visitors?

7. Previous Arizona Research • Yuma, AZ: Yuma Visitor Survey: Characteristics and Economic Impacts of Hotel Visitors (Kerna, A., Duval, D., and Frisvold, G., 2016) • Explored the potential for growing and diversifying the Yuma visitor base • Did not consider visitors who stayed in non-hotel accommodations • Very important! Yuma has a very broad array of accommodation types, especially RV/mobile homes

8. Previous Arizona Research (continued) • Mesa, AZ: Arizona Winter Visitor Pilot Study (Institute for Social Science Research at ASU with Arizona Office of Tourism, 2007) • Provided a foundation for structuring research that includes different strata of accommodation types • Shared many concerns and recommendations about studying winter visitors • No further studies were completed • Key issue: Lack of a population list (i.e. from county, community, or P.O.) from which to sample mobile homes, visiting friends and relatives (VFR), RVs and campers • For some of these, businesses may have lists, but other visitors may not be as well documented (visiting friends, staying at campgrounds, etc.)

9. Not really a hotel kind of town?

10. Source: https://youtu.be/1r9TzoHHKWo

12. Methodology The challenge: How to adequately sample a transient, potentially multi-home population of winter visitors who may not be found at typical tourist locations (such as hotels) Our approach: Locate visitors through a variety of strategies and random sampling techniques for a well-rounded and more representative sample Our goal: Collect economic data so that Yuma County and Visit Yuma can more fully understand seasonal visitor population volume and spending profiles

13. Methods: Four Surveys

14. Yuma Visitor Center Survey • Yuma Visitor Center staff/volunteers helped to inform visitors about the survey • Collection December 2017 through May 2018 • So far, 446 visitor groups (based on travel parties) have participated • Email addresses collected for follow-up survey with spending questions

15. Yuma Events

16. Event Surveys A total of 314 surveys were collected from attendees, one per household/travel party: • Medjool Date Festival • January 27, 2018 • 93 surveys collected • Yuma Lettuce Festival • February 24, 2018 • 132 surveys collected • Midnight at the Oasis • March 2 & 3, 2018 • 89 surveys collected

17. Follow-Up Survey • Emailed to short version survey participants who opted to provide their email for follow up • Surveys from three signature community events (102 eligible contacts) • Visitor Center survey (103 eligible so far) • Only those who were staying more than 30 days were included in the follow-up sample • So far, 43 out of 205 have responded (21% response rate following first invitation)

18. RV and Mobile Home Park Seasonal Residents • Four parks included in surveying: • The Palms RV Resort • Blue Sky Ranch Resort • WestwindRV & Golf Resort • Adobe Village RV Park • Total spaces at these 4 resorts: 1,738 (not all occupied) • Resort managers/admin staff serving as middlemen to residents/visitors • Electronic and paper versions made available, timed for mid-to-late season • So far, 253 survey responses received (reminders still being sent; may do blitz in person if needed)

19. Seasonal Property Owners • Final survey collection phase (end of winter season) – currently in progress • List compiled from county tax assessor’s records of property owners • Mailed paper survey with online option offered; Dillman process - reminder postcard and second mailing • List filtered for: • Out-of-county property owners (situs address different than mailing address) • U.S.-based permanent addresses only (for mailing cost purposes) • Properties with built improvements only • 1,000 surveys to be mailed Response rate: TBD

20. Initial Findings • The results from the event surveys (completed) have yielded some useful preliminary snapshots of our population of interest: • Visitor demographics • Travel party characteristics • Activity interests • Visitation patterns • Lodging types and transportation modes • The follow-up surveys emailed to event survey participants will include more questions regarding trip spending to better address economic considerations

21. A first look into our sample…

30. Discussion: Findings • Initial findings from the event surveys indicate that Yuma winter visitors have many commonalities, in general: • Vast majority are ages 60 through 80 • Nearly all are retired • From northern U.S. states or Canada • Mostly traveling in male/female couples • Most are annual repeat visitors • More than half stay at an RV park • …Yup, this is a classic snowbird destination! • This confirms that we are sampling at the right places to reach our population.

31. Discussion: Sampling Challenges • Identifying true “snowbirds”/“winter visitors” • Determining short-term visitors, year-round residents, non-visiting property owners, etc. • Visitors Center: often people passing through town, short-term visitors • Certain unknowns of using a tax assessor’s list to target a population • Counties/municipalities may label property types differently or with unique coding • The nature of property use can be difficult to predict • Ex.: In some neighborhoods in Yuma it is common for people to use an owned, unbuilt lot for long-term RV parking

32. Discussion: Sampling Challenges • Over-representing certain types of visitors • Are people who are likely to attend one event also likely to attend others? • Are event attendees a more social, spending-inclined subpopulation? • Access to a sample/identifying the gatekeepers • A responsive RV park manager or Visitor Center volunteer could make a large difference regarding how many surveys were collected • Collecting in-depth economic data in a constrained setting • Intercept approaches (such as at events) are best for short surveys • Most respondents preferred not to provide email address for the follow-up, more in-depth survey

33. Discussion: Sampling Challenges • …And as always, budget constraints • With more time and money, we could enlist more research team members to survey at more events, go door-to-door at RV parks, etc. • Many out-of-state property owners were Canadian, but this adds a considerable additional mailing expense • However, we were still able to account for Canadian visitors through the other surveys • Limited budget for incentives (prizes, participation stipend, etc.)

34. Discussion: Further Investigation • What can destinations learn and do now to be better prepared for the retirement of the baby boomer generation? • How will generational changes affect traveler demographics, preferences, and behaviors? • How can Yuma continue to be (and increasingly become) a viable and attractive destination?

35. Questions? To learn more about this and other research from the CST, visit: scrd.asu.edu/sustainabletourism www.facebook.com/ASUCenterforSustainableTourism