Global Warming Tim Cooper Chilliwack 2007
Global Warming discussions involve • Science (Phys, Chem, Bio) • Technology (Clean Energy etc) • Economics (Carbon Taxes etc) • Politics (Fossil Fuel Subsidies for Votes)
Jan 24th 2006 Data from NASA Note: 0.8C rise over 125 years
Anthropogenic CO2 sources Oil (gasoline etc) Coal (electricity) And Natural Gas
Climate Models The laws of Physics and Chemistry at work
The Physics of Climate The Four Main Players (i) The Sun’s Energy input to Earth. (ii) The Greenhouse Gases (iii) Aerosols; Sulphur Dioxide, Dust, Water Drops (iv) Ice (Albido)
The sun is responsible for <15% of the observed temperature increase
Ice and Snow Ice reflects 90% of light energy Water Absorbs 90% of light energy Hotter => ice becomes water => less sunlight reflected => hotter Earth
Jan 24th 2006 Data from NASA Note: ice-melt feedback near poles Don’t ask about the black spot in Africa
Aerosols A cooling agent Fossil Fuels => Aerosols => sunlight reflected => Cooler Earth
What have humans done to the climate? Greenhouse Gasses (CO2+others) => 2.3 W/m2 of warming Aerosols => 1.2 Watts/m2 Cooling Overall 1.1 Watt per square metre Warming Source: IPCC 2007
In fact, the power of storms IS increasing Solid line:- Total Power of Storms Dashed line:- Average Water Surface Temperature
1953 vs 2005. Ice is 40% (1.3m) thinner It decreased by 14% over last two years! Arctic to be ice free in summer by 2040-2080
Rigg’s Glacier: Muir Inlet. Alaska’s Glacial Bay Nat. Pk; (1941.. 2000 feet thick)
2km shorter Pasterze Glacier 2004
Pine Beetle Effects ($??) In Sept 2006 it was announced that all the province will be affected
If we freeze CO2 levels at present day (382 ppm) The earth will continue to warm another 0.6C in 100 years Most of our children and grandchildren will survive.
If we continue with present government policies Dangerous runaways starts at about 2C rise Amazon Rainforest=>Savannah+CO2 Permafrost Melts => CO2 (50x annual) Poles Melt => More heating Water Warms => More CO2 Hanson (NASA 2004) => We have 10 years.
With the current government policies Land warms more than water
Does our generation have the right to do this to our descendents?
What can an individual do? (I) • Install solar water heating for house • Car pool or public transport • Buy most efficient appliances/cars • Insulate attic • Turn off electrical equipment not in use • Go to web for more ideas
What Can Government Do? Most carbon emitted by industry/service sector Government can bring about massive carbon reduction with very small effect on economy (1% +/- 2% reduction in GDP) by… Tax Shifting! Stop discouraging work by taxing income/payroll Start discouraging carbon mining by taxing carbon mining** Or at least stop $1.4G subsidy to the fossil fuel industries! **Have faith in our young Physicists, Chemists and Engineers!
What can an individual do?(II) • Write to your MP. • Tell them • “No carbon tax, no vote”. • Then Vote • Vote as if your life depended on it!
News From 2006 • 1- Greenland is now losing mass (fast sliding). Melting has become ‘irreversible’ with 50% probability. • 7m sea level rise in few hundred years (or 20years???).
GRACE measured from 2003->2005 lost 155 GT/year (blue) gained 54 GT/year (red) In 1990s the loss/gain were in balance. NASA 19/Oct/06
2-Grace measurements show Antarctic Ice melting too, but other measurements contradict this. But if warming continues and Ice does melt….
- Cyclone Larry at 300kph winds hits Australia • July “Temperatures on buses in the hottest parts of Britain hit 52C yesterday while the London Underground reached 47C. EU guidelines state that cattle should not be transported at temperatures exceeding 27C” • – Oct: Australia experiences worst drought in at least 100 years, agriculture down by 2/3. Population furious with PM January 2007. Hottest Month EVER for the planet.
But to end on a positive note…Kyoto by Sep 25th 2006 Signed and Ratified Signed with Ratification Pending
The End Of the talk, but not the warming! The planet is 0.0000015C warmer than when I began For more info: See Al Gore’s Movie “An Inconvenient Truth” www.climateark.com www.realclimate.org http://www.metoffice.gov.uk http://www.pewclimate.org http://cutcarbonnow.com (info and local petition). Or NASA, or your friendly neighbourhood Physics Department
Summary Science: Burning Coal, Oil and Natural Gas puts Carbon Dioxide in the air. Carbon Dioxide traps heat, we are getting hotter quickly, Even with most warming delayed and hidden by Aerosols. Action: Move economy away from Coal, Oil and Gas as quickly as possible, Carbon tax is most efficient way… needs Government action.
Possible Solutions…Conservation! Electricity: Nuclear Breeder, Solar, Wind, HydroTransportation: Hydrogen, Electric vehiclesIce House Cooling/Smart meters Carbon Tax!!!! Smokescreens “Clean Coal” Ethanol/Biofuels Non-Breeder Nuclear Natural Gas Disasters Looming -Alberta Tar-Sands -China/India with old technology -Coal to Oil conversion -Coal in any form