Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance

1. Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

2. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? • Need to assess inter-model variability. • The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison • of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in • EastAsia Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

3. Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type Main model focus S.-B. Kim, T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea) YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model) 3D Eulerian Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation H. Hayami, O. Hertel, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark) ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation I. Uno, E.S. Jang Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan) RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami Osaka Prefecture University (Japan) OPU-Model (Osaka Prefecture Univ.) 3D Eulerian Long-term deposition S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa STEM 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term studies G. Calori, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa ATMOS-2 Lagrangian multi-layer Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships. M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute MATCH 3D Eulerian Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

4. Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.

5. Monitoring station location and emission distribution at Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right) Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom

6. Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for the month of January. (Task A)

7. Correlation between observed and predicted data by monitoring site. (Task A)

8. Example of 10 day- averaged surface SO2 concentrations (January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)

9. Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

10. Total sulfur depositions for both months (January and May together) and contributions due to each process over selected target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China) Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.

11. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Inter-model Variability

12. 5 day iso-sigma back-trajectories arriving in Taichung Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.

14. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Interannual Variability (10-yrs)

15. Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than Changes in Emissions! Is there climate feedback link?

16. Long-range transport: Northern China  Korea  Japan  North America (?!) Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx with the involvement of CO and CH4 Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg Regional Air Pollution Issues

17. Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance Tracey’s Work

18. Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance % of Total Deposition as Nitrate Tracey’s Work

19. Deposition of Dust Plays an Important Role in Neutralizing Acid Deposition Observed pH S/Ca>1

20. NASA-Seawifs The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200 mgrams/m3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations (http://www.ess.uci.edu/~oliver/tracep/airqual/index.html). The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20010409/395181.htm

21. ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA) Spring 2001 Experiments NASA/GTE DC-8

22. The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia--- Pollution is Transported the Same Way!! Dust (Pink) and Sulfate Dust and CO

23. AOD (dust=color, BC+OC=line) April 08, 2001 AOD SO4

24. A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI) http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/Perfect_Storm_Pres.html

25. The Changing Air Quality of the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Basin • Pressures are from the Pacific Rim Countries and beyond. • Changing patterns and growth rates of energy use and resulting emissions are the primary forcing factors -- with East and West following different paths. • Impacts are local, regional (East and West), basin - wide, and global. • Complexities in transport and chemistry over the Pacific greatly challenge present modeling and measurement efforts.

27. UNEXPECTED DECREASES IN CHINA’S SULFUR EMISSIONS BAU – ca 1990’s Actual New Two-Zone Control Policy SEPA

28. The importance of black carbon has only recently been recognized

29. China Emissions in 20001 (Tg) Din China’s emissions (2000 – 1995) (Tg) Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995 (Tg) Change in China’s emissions as % of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion (%) Temp. Response function DT/DEmissions (K/Tg) 2,4 Estimated Change in global temperaturesdue to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000 (K) 3,4 SO2 20.8 -4.95 134 -3.7% -8.2 10-3 +0.04 BC 0.91 -0.43 5.1 -8.4% 6.5 10-2 -0.026 CO2 3,218 -109 29,700 -0.037% 3.0 10-5 -0.003 CH4 33.4 +1.16 360 +0.32% 7.5 10-4 +0.001 Net change: S = +0.012 Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked

30. Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000.

31. Sounding height Flight path obs. point The Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance • Field Campaign Planning • Field Observation Design • Traffic (Aviation) Management • Visibility • Environmental Management • Health Alerts Simulated Kosa Onset April 98 Annual averaged Surface level SO42-

32. Considerations for Future MICS Studies • Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models? • Nitrate & longer-term have been identified as important next steps • I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, AOD, and even extending to ozone.

33. Thank You !!!

35. Annual Sulfur Deposition South Korea

36. Comparison of TOMS-AI and Surface Obs