Values Based Politics DLC National Conversation Presented by Mark Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. Inc July 17, 2001
The American Electorate Republican Base 22% Democratic Base 23% Swing II 28% Swing I 27%
Swing I Suburban Women Worried about children and families Swing II Wired Workers – Men Fiscally Conservative Socially Progressive Investing in stock market Work in suburbs – not downtown plant Want authenticity Who Are Predominately Swing I and Swing II Voters? Swing I Suburban Women Socially Progressive Strongly Pro-Choice Family-Centered Values Less Sensitive to Fiscal Issues Less Concerned Cand. Attributes
The voters Gore was able to attract at the end of the campaign were Swing I late breakers. • Bush captured all of the Swing II late breaking voters because they react very strongly to messages about small government, fiscal responsibility, and personal responsibility. Gore Failed To Woo Late Breaking Swing II Voters 5
Why Are Swing II Voters So Important? • They are the difference between tying and winning with a majority. • If Gore simply won the 27% of the Swing II late breaking voters that Clinton did, the popular vote would have looked like the following: 6
2000 Campaign Messages Gore failed to reach these Swing II voters because his message did not resonate with them. Bush’s did. Penn, Schoen & Berland/DLC Nov. 7 2000
Situation Analysis • Bush Values Shield: Democrats must penetrate the values shield Bush has put around himself. He must not be shown as just in tune with business interests but rather out of step on issues like the economy, budget, healthcare, energy. We should tie the House Republicans around Bush as they are weaker on values measures and up for reelection first. • Bipartisan Leadership:Bush took a tremendous but not fatal hit upon the Jeffords departure and there are signs he is beginning to rebound from this. Democrats must take pains to be bipartisan but stand on conviction. • Fiscal Responsibility: As the budget surplus wanes, Bush takes an enormous gamble being seen as spending the Medicare Trust Fund. Democrats must argue for a limited but activist federal government and oppose a “strangled” federal government that leaves everybody fighting for themselves.
Values Trump Economy Which is closer to your view – Economic issues concerning job creation and growth is of greater concern to me right now or I’m concerned with the decline in values and the moral fabric of society contributing to the breakup of the family and crime and violence? Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001 10 10
Bush Out Values Democrats on Many Attributes Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001 11
Congressional Ballot by VALUES INDEX • Values are indexed by attitudes towards homosexuality, sex before marriage, belief in God, pornography, sanctity of marriage, and importance of religion • The lower scores were given to the responses less tied to traditional religious attitudes. Whites Only 12 12
Electoral Targets Overview How do we reach a Democratic electoral majority? • Reaching out to Swing I and II Voters Reaching out to family values-oriented voters in border states and suburban swing districts. Reaching out to moderate men who are socially liberal and oppose the right wing of the Republican Party but who are economically conservative. • Cultivating our Growing Base As Hispanics and African American demographics grow, their values must be Democratic values.
Growth of Hispanic Population Makes Them A Powerful Political Force % Hispanic Voters of the Overall American Electorate *2050 is Total Population Estimate US Census Data VNS Data
Hispanics Are More Satisfied With The Country • Recent Gallup polling shows Hispanics as satisfied with the country as Whites. Blacks are overall negative by 20 points. Gallup, June 2001 17
Democratic Proposals Penn, Schoen & Berland Ass. April 16, 2001 20
Democratic Values Agenda • Valuing Fiscal Responsibility - We must preserve a balanced budget, make sure the debt is paid down or use a trigger and government must become more efficient and flexible. • Expanding America’s Econ. Opportunities – Economic development initiatives for rural areas and workers. • Meeting America’s Healthcare Needs – Adding prescription drugs, PBOR, low-income parents expansion. • Adopting a New Energy Policy – Emphasizing technology to end dependence on foreign energy sources. • Valuing Personal Responsibility -Government will do its part if citizens do theirs. Fatherhood, child support and gun safety, etc. • Valuing Tolerance and Doing What is Right. We stand for hate crimes bill, min. wage, equal pay, privacy, employer discrimination, genetic discrimination, mental health. • Preparing Americans for Retirement. Social Security, Medicare, IRAs, pensions/401Ks.