Goals

1. Goals • Develop models to relate “stream health” to land use change and climate change • Parameterize models using data from study sites, past work, and newly proposed experiments

2. Ecosystem structure Ecosystem function What do we mean by stream health? Includes human values: ecosystem servicesclean water for drinking, agriculture, recreation, etc. (fishable/swimmable waters) supported by biota and ecological processes

3. Ecosystem structure Ecosystem function Ecological Metrics Structure water quality Biotic diversity & abundance habitat diversity Function nutrient uptake primary production decomposition

5. Ecological model development • This project: Ecological structure • Habitat Models • Proposed project: Ecological Function • Primary production • Decomposition

6. The Big Picture Climate Change Land Use Change Riparian Vegetation Sediments Nutrients Light Temperature Flow I D Light PP PP I F D I F D PP PP I F D D PP Primary Production Inverts Fish Decomposition

7. Three Modelling Tasks • Step 1: Model the inputs • Temperature, substrate, siltation, • High flows, low flows, nutrients, organic matter • Step 2: Use the inputs to model habitat • Step 3: Simulate spatial linkages • One-way flow • Hierarchical structure • Watershed and Buffer inputs

8. Umbrella Suite of Species Lambeck 1997: “Focal Species: a Multi-Species Umbrella for Nature Conservation” • Siltation: Rosyside Dace • Algae: Central Stoneroller • Inverts: Tessellated Darter

9. 0 Suitability 1 Turbidity 0 Suitability 1 Avg water temp Habitat Suitability Models Estimates of “Suitability” of various conditions e.g., • Current velocity • Depth • Percent riffles, pools • Substrate composition • Temperature • Percent cover • pH, oxygen • Turbidity

10. Example: Longnose Dace HSI = minimum score = 0.5 1 SI 0 40 75cm/s Avg current velocity 1m Max riffle depth 50% % riffles 10 20 30 Avg max temp in riffles 1 SI 0 50% % appropriate substrate 50% % cover

11. Rosyside Dace A drift-feeder, sensitive to siltation and flooding Riparian zone:  Leafy Debris inputs  Wood / Roots / Flow obstructions Siltation Particle Size: gravel  constrains spawning Flood events: frequency, intensity, timing, refuges  impose mortality Baseflow: velocity distributions  determines energetic costs and feeding success • Temperature • affects growth rate and reproduction

12. Going beyond Habitat Suitability Models • Want to evaluate habitat in a spatial context (land use change) • Want to evaluate habitat over time (climate change) • Want to estimate uncertainty / risk (chaining models) Spatially Explicit Index Models (SESI)

13. Three Modelling Tasks • Step 1: Model the inputs • Temperature, substrate, siltation, • High flows, low flows, nutrients, organic matter • Step 2: Use the inputs to model habitat • Step 3: Simulate spatial linkages • One-way flow • Hierarchical structure • Watershed and Buffer inputs

14. Spatial Structure of a Stream • One way flow

15. Spatial Structure of a Stream • One way flow • Hierarchical structure

16. Spatial Structure of a Stream • One way flow • Hierarchical structure • Watersheds

17. Spatial Structure of a Stream • One way flow • Hierarchical structure • Watersheds • Riparian Buffers

18. Spatial Structure of an Urban Stream • One way flow • Hierarchical structure • Watersheds • Riparian Buffers • Pipe network