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Electricity for ICT4D:

Patrick Murphy Program Director, Notre Dame Initiative for Global Development pmurphy8@nd.edu ; http://ndigd.nd.edu. Electricity for ICT4D:. Estimating the cost of reliable electricity from grid extension and distributed energy resources. Agenda.

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Electricity for ICT4D:

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  1. Patrick Murphy Program Director, Notre Dame Initiative for Global Development pmurphy8@nd.edu; http://ndigd.nd.edu

    Electricity for ICT4D:

    Estimating the cost of reliable electricity from grid extension and distributed energy resources
  2. Agenda Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  3. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  4. No electricity = poor (New York Times, 2010)
  5. ~ low HDI (http://chartsbin.com/view/5352, 2013)
  6. ~ no connectivity (ITU, 2013)
  7. ~ higher corruption (Washington Post, 2012)
  8. US Transmission Grid > 10,000 kWh/cap (GENI, 2013)
  9. ~ distribution > 10,000 kWh/cap (NASA, 2013)
  10. vs. Africa’s Transmission Grid http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/re2naf.html < 1,000 kWh/cap* SA 3,000 (Szabo, et. al, 2013)
  11. ~ distribution <1,000 kWh/cap *SA 3,000 SSA– despite transmission infrastructure, little use NASA, 2013
  12. Even where the grid reaches, it is not always reliable (data from Enterprise Surveys, 2013)
  13. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  14. Grid Reliability/Availability Absent DER can provide affordable power for communities and small enterprises, but are preferred to grid extension only where distance from the grid is large. Levin and Thomas’ (2010) Nandi and Ghosh (2010) Turkayand Telli (2011) Bernal-Agustin and Fufo-Lopez (2011) Twaha et al (2010) presented PV systems as an alternative to diesel in grid-connected distributed generation. PV was not cost competitive with grid-only solutions No consideration of an grid reliability (Resilience value of DER?)
  15. Where does grid extension make sense?High population density regions close to existing grid But what if the grid isn’t reliable? (Szabo, et. al, 2013) http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/re2naf.html
  16. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability with Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  17. Simulating Outages hr
  18. Simulating Outages To simulate random up/down time, we generate an exponential random variables E1andE2 from: R1= using excel R2 = using excel λf= 1/MTBF (Kumareet al, 1999) , the arrival time of the next failure: (Winston, 2003; Ross, 1972) Generate a matrix of up/down times when Ij-1,k,l= 1 (the grid is ON for the last hour), simulate whether power is on hour j such that if E1 > 1 hr, no failure occurred and: Repeat for E2, arrival time of next repair if Ij-1,k,l= 0 using λr= 1/MTTR
  19. Integrate Outage Simulation in HOMER (HOMER, 2013)
  20. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  21. HOMER Inputs – Cost of Reliability (Twaha et al, 2010)
  22. Cost of Reliability (Murphy et al, 2014)
  23. Price Sensitivity (Murphy et al, 2014)
  24. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  25. HOMER Inputs – Economic Distance Limits If KGE = $100,000 km-1 is the cost for grid extension, then the cost per km per year: km-1yr-1) Where: iis the interest rate (0.048) nis the number of yrs (25) Justifications for KGE = 100K $50,000 to $150,000/km (Levin and Thomas, 2012) 2.5 cEur/kWh/km (~$US 0.034) (Szabo et al, 2013) 225K kWh/yr* 0.034 = $7,650/yr -> KGE=$110K km-1 e = 225K kWh/yr (annual average electricity consumption)
  26. Simulation of Various Outage Rates (a) Â = 1 (b) MTBF = 58.10, MTTR = 10.10, E[A] = 0.852, Â = 0.834 (c) MTBF = 29.05, MTTR = 10.10, E[A]= 0.744, Â = 0.759 (d) MTBF = 58.10, MTTR = 20.20, E[A] = 0.744, Â= 0.751 (e) MTBF = 14.50, MTTR = 10.10, E[A] = 0.592, Â = 0.573 (f) MTBF = 6.0, MTTR = 18.00, E[A] = 0.250, Â = 0.240 (g) Â = 0
  27. Sim Consistent with Calculation
  28. Economic Distance Limit (EDL) The EDL occurs where the stand alone electricity cost equals the grid extension cost: LCOE (A,EDL) = CSA Solving for EDL: EDL = [CSA – Cg]Ae/kGE = [8.23]A
  29. Observation Availability in scenarios (c) and (d) are similar, why the difference in LCOE, EDL?
  30. Optimal System Configurations Availability in scenarios (c) and (d) are similar, why the difference in LCOE, EDL? Why is there a “greener” optima at A=0.59 vs A=0.74?
  31. Progress Lack of Electricity Access and Correlation to Development Challenges Analyzing the Impact of Grid Availability Review Method Simulating outages and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Achieving higher reliability through Hybrid Connected DER Grid Extension vs. DER vs. Hybrid Connected DER Summary and Conclusion
  32. Summary This analysis provides a simple linear models for estimating the costs of reliable electricity as a function of grid availability A grid electricity cost Cg grid extension distance D annual electricity consumption e cost of grid extension KGE or kGE the cost of stand alone generation CSA LCOE(A,0) = [Cg– CSA]A + CSA LCOE(A,D) = [Cg– CSA]A + CSA+ DkGE/e EDL = [CSA– Cg]Ae/kGE Determination of optimal system components still require detailed simulation
  33. Conclusion Policies that promote grid extension w/o considering grid availabilty are flawed. existing grid R/A must be included even where the grid reaches, DER needed Optimal hybrid generation components may not be the same, even w/ similar A: Actual outage MTBF and MTTR must be considered A, MTBF and MTTR can vary within a country or a region, just as fuel cost, insolation, … New tools will be needed to expand the analysis of unreliable grid impacts on DER options ability to easily simulate (fully) stochastic grid failures potential non-linearities in component costs (Szabo, et. al, 2013)
  34. Backup and Extra
  35. LCOE for Ad = 0.95 at various Grid Availabilities
  36. Compare Simulation to Closed Form Calculation Find LCOE( A, D=0), where: A = grid availability D = distance from the grid CG= cost of grid electricity = $0.171 kWh-1 CSA= cost of stand-alone electricity = $0.426 kWh-1(from scenario (g)) Assuming that components scale linearly in cost, and are available at all sizes, then: LCOE(A, 0) = [A] CG + [1- A]CSA = [CG - CSA] [A] + CSA In this case: = [-0.255]A + 0.426
  37. LCOE(Ag,0)
  38. LCOE(A,D) LCOE( A,D), where A = grid availability D = distance from the grid CG = cost of grid electricity = $0.171 kWh-1 CSA = cost of stand-alone electricity = $0.426 kWh-1(from scenario (g)) e = annual electricity consumption = 225K kWh kGE= cost of grid extension = 6,954 km-1yr-1 LCOE(A,D) = [CG - CSA] [A] + CSA + D[kGE/e] Which, in this case is: LCOE(A,D) = [-0.255]A + 0.426 + [0.031]D
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