Arab Climate Resilience Initiative “ Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Erosion, and Human Development” Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate change Mohammed Karrou, ICARDA Cairo, Arab republic of Egypt 20-21 September 2010
Plan of the presentation • Challenges in Arab region due to Climate change (Agriculture) • Adaptation options (Inland): ICARDA experience • Adaptation options (Coastal areas): Some suggestions
Challenges • Temperature rise globally in the range • of 2 to 6 °C by 2100 (IPCC); • In dry areas, the absolute amount of • rain is expected to decrease (20% in • many countries of Arab countries); • Extreme weather events will most • likely amplify; • Periods of drought will become longer • and its severity will be higher
Challenges 2. Water resources • River flows and groundwater • recharge will be reduced • Limited opportunities to • expand irrigated areas • A little new water is expected • to be available; • Increased water quality • deterioration (salt intrusion • due to high water pumping & • sea level rise)
Challenges 3. Population growth and arable land availability
How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ? • Inland • Heat stress and reduction of the length of the • growing period of crops; • CC is likely to alter the abundance, intensity, • frequency & types of many pests & increase • pathogen growth rates; • Drought (at critical stages) and rainfall • variability (yield fluctuations); • Irrigation water scarcity; • Land and vegetation degradation (low • fertility, less organic matter, carbon emission).
How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ? • Coastal areas • Land degradation due to sea level rise • (reduction of cropped area); • Inundation of cropped areas (salinity, • water logging) • Salt intrusion due to sea level rise (salt • stress, less available freshwater); • Salt intrusion increase and water • scarcity due to excessive ground water • pumping (salt and water, drought • stress)
What Can Be done to Adapt to Climate Change? • Advances in S & T; • Strong TT systems; • Enhancement of NARES human capacity; • Enabling policy and political will; • Integration of adaptation strategies into • development plans and policies.
Adaptation Options (Inland) • Heat, drought and salt tolerant varieties or species and with • high water productivity; • Adapted and modern irrigation systems and techniques that • increase water productivity; • Early sowing; • Conservation agriculture and water harvesting; • Adapted farming systems and diversification; • Appropriate policies and institutional set-ups.
Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2006
Selection of Drought Tolerant Varieties using more efficient methods • Identification of “Drought” candidate genes with Microarray (DNA-microarrays is a modern method that permits analysis of genes during different growth stages) ; • Use of physiological and molecular markers in breeding for drought tolerance. X
Community-Based Optimization of the Management of Scarce Water Resources in Agriculture in West Asia and North Africa Project Project research approach • Community and participatory • Integration technologies/policy/institutions • Complementarities: BM & Satellite sites • Multidisciplinary, multi-institution teams • S. economic analysis • Benchmarking and out-scaling
Water and Land Management Drier environments with water harvesting Max WP Max Yield Rainfed systems with supplemental irrigation Irrigatedareas Increase water productivity BB RB IB
Zero-Till (Direct Sowing) to Conserve Water and Sequester C in the Soil • Used around the world • minimum soil disturbance (ZT) • stubble retention • many rotations (legumes, oilseeds) • Benefits • savings in time, fuel, machinery wear • better soil structure • soil-water dynamics (OM, porosity) • Timely sowing, C sequestration • higher yield potential • less erosion
Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems • Promotion of improved technologies for • producing value-added products, to • achieve higher income for rural • communities in the intensified/diversified • integrated crop/rangeland/livestock • production systems • Methodologies that focus on farming • communities with participatory and • gender-sensitive approaches
Integration of Crop, Rangeland & Livestock Production Systems Flock management and breeding Successful Technologies On-farm Feed Production By-products Feed Blocks Barley Production Cactus & Fodder Shrubs Natural Pastures Enhancement & Rangeland Management
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise • Sea level rise is caused by ocean • thermal expansion glacial melt • from Greenland and Antarctica • and change in terrestrial storage. • Low gradient coastal landforms • most susceptible to inundation • include deltas, estuaries, • beaches and barrier islands and • coral reefs.
Challenges due Sea Level Rise in Agriculture in the Arab Region • Sea level rise is a big risk in the Arab countries, since the region’s economic • activity, agriculture and population centers are in the coastal zone. • Agriculture will be affected by inundation and increasing salinity of soil and • available fresh water resources such as aquifers. • High salt intrusion is also observed in certain coastal areas due excessive • pumping to intensify crop production (horticultural crops). • Simulation carried out by AFED revealed that a sea level rise of only 1 m • would directly impact 41,500 km2 of the Arab coastal lands. The most • serious impacts of sea level rise would be in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, • Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE. • The effects on the region’s agricultural sector would mostly be felt in Egypt • where 1 m rise would put 12% of the country’s agricultural land at risk and • affect directly 3.2% of the population of the Arab countries.
Prevention • Enhance population awareness and develop/implement policies that • facilitate adequate protection and adaptation such as insurance; • Protect farmers’ lands from flooding and salt water intrusion • (breakwaters, …) • Take legal actions to restrict or prohibit agriculture development in hazard • -prone areas How to Cope with the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Agriculture?
Adaptation Strategies (Research is needed) • GIS and modeling to map the areas with high risk and evaluate possible • impacts; • Development of early warning system; • Development and introduction of irrigation techniques that improve • water productivity and hence reduce water pumping and intrusion of • salt (apply water at the right time and amount, drip irrigation) • Selection and introduction of crops/species that are tolerant to • salinity and with high water productivity; • Develop norms of fertilizers / amendment that can reduce salt • concentration; • Soilless / hydroponic cropping; • Transfer of water (cost, politics) + mixing of water; • Desalination (cost)