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Additional Enrollment Information by Region

This report outlines the findings of the SBCTC Mission Study Task Force regarding enrollment policies and strategies to maintain service levels while increasing support for underserved populations. The analysis indicates a modest population growth forecast, with unique participation rates varying across regions. Key focus areas include increasing ABE/GED enrollment, addressing disparities among racial/ethnic groups, and enhancing student achievement to meet workforce demands. Recommendations emphasize the importance of targeted efforts to raise participation rates and improve service availability, particularly for Hispanic, African American, and Native American communities.

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Additional Enrollment Information by Region

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  1. Additional Enrollment Information by Region SBCTC Mission Study Task Force July 16, 2009

  2. Overview • Enrollment policy: Maintain current level of service while bringing up level of service for underserved populations • Population driven enrollments (maintaining current level) • OFM population growth forecast varies by region • Apply current participation rates to OFM population forecast = enrollments level that maintains current level of service • Bringing up service to underserved populations • Underserved regions • Race/ethnic • ABE/GED rates lag “college-level” rates • Also need to increase students achievement to meet employer and transfer demand

  3. Population Growth Will Be Modest Compared to the Past – Between 0.4% to 1.2% a Year Based on OFM 2008 Forecast

  4. Population Growth Analysis Based on Six Sub-Populations Each sub-population has a unique population as a divisor to establish the Participation Rate & Service Levels (see slide 14 for details). For example ABE/GED students by age group are compared to adults by age group with less than HS education (American Community Survey (ACS), 2007). The American Community Survey is a new Census Bureau survey providing Census like data for regions within the state.

  5. Results by Region for Maintaining Current Level of Service: All Regions Grow More Than 5,000 Students

  6. Underserved Populations • SW & Central/East regions for “college-level” • Pierce, Spokane, Central/East for ESL • ABE/GED rates lag “college-level” rates • Hispanics lag other groups in all regions • Native Americans lag other groups in 6 regions • African Americans lag other groups in King County

  7. At the “college-level” Several Regions Have Lower Participation Rates • Rates are significantly lower in SW and Central/East regions • State average – 11.2%

  8. In ESL Several Regions Have Lower Participation Rates • Rates are significantly lower in Pierce, Spokane and Central/East regions • State average – 13.4%

  9. In Most Regions ABE/GED Participation Rates Lag “college-level” Rates

  10. Hispanics Participate at Lower Rates Across the State, Native American & African American Rates are Low in Some Regions

  11. Implications of Maintaining Level of Service & Bringing Up Underserved • Maintain service levels as population grows • 53,400 more students by 2030 - more than 5,000 in each region (includes Running Start) • 2,800 additional students per year • 1,100 additional FTES per year • Raising participation in SW & Central/East regions • 10,900 more students by 2030, including 4,000 more Hispanic students • 500 more students a year, 300 FTES more per year • Basic Skills - 8,100 more students by 2030 • Raise ABE/GED rate across the state • Bring up regions with lower ESL rates to average level • 8,100 more students by 2030 • 500 more students a year, 200 more FTE per year • Level of service to Hispanics would improve, but still be lower than average

  12. More Output Needed to Meet Workforce and Transfer Demand • Achieve with same students, but more success for students – Student Achievement Initiative • More reaching the tipping point and beyond – could produce 4,000 more transfers and prepared for work • Basic Skills transitions – 7,000 more students making a transition, mostly Hispanic • Increase transition rate to 25% • Hispanic participation rate would approach average • More applied baccalaureate options

  13. Possible Policy Choices Increase Enrollments in All Regions

  14. Technical Information on Participation Rates & Forecast by Sub-Populations Participation Rate & Service Levels based on … WR: Students/employed workers (OFM forecast) ABE/GED: Students by age group/adults by age group with less than HS education (American Community Survey (ACS), 2007) Associate +: Students by age group/adults by age group with an associate degree or bachelor’s degree (ACS, 2007) RS: Students/JR and SR in public high schools (Caseload forecast) ESL: Students by age group/adults by age group who speak a language other than English at home and speak English less than well – adults with less than an associate degree (ACS, 2007) “college-level”: Students with less than associate and not in ABE/ESL or WR by age group/adults with less than associate degree (ACS,2007)

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