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2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction

This forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of commercial GSO satellite and launch vehicle demand over a 10-year horizon, categorizing satellites by mass. The report, produced annually by COMSTAC, incorporates inputs from industry experts to generate reliable projections. The methodology, consistent since 1993, is continually enhanced and informed by global space transport and satellite industry data. Interested parties can participate in the Technology & Innovation Working Group to contribute to future forecasts.

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2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction

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  1. 2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group October 26, 2005

  2. GSO Forecast Background • Forecast predicts commercial addressable GSO satellite and launch vehicle demand over 10-year horizon • Broken down into four satellite mass categories • Produced annually by COMSTAC since 1993 • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements as needed • Incorporates inputs from global space transportation and satellite industry • Comprehensive inputs from satellite and launch vehicle manufacturers • Individual inputs from satellite operators

  3. Technology & Innovation WG Members FAA/AST Tecolote Research, Inc Industry Experts From Launch Vehicle and Satellite Manufacturers, USG Civil Servants and Consultants

  4. Technology & Innovation WG Members Dr. Alexander Liang (WG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation Lisa Hague (Forecast Chair) - The Boeing Company I-Shih Chang - Aerospace Corporation Ethan Haase - Lockheed Martin/International Launch Services Bernard Hawkins - Aerospace Corporation William Hayes - Space Systems Loral Joe Hopkins - Industry expert Doug Howe - The Boeing Company Michael Izzo - Industry expert David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Facktor Lepore - Kistler Aerospace Corporation Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research, Inc Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch, Inc Dave Pollock - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne John Richards - ATK Kathy Shockey - Space Systems Loral John Sloan - FAA AST William Tosney - Aerospace Corp

  5. 2006 COMSTAC GSO Forecast Schedule Meetings COMSTAC Fall 05 Meeting COMSTAC Spring 06 Meeting Working Face-to-Face Meeting Telecon Kick-off Telecon Telecon Data Collection Operator and International Inputs Due FAA Issues Data Requests Comprehensive Inputs Due Data Analysis & Evaluation • Review data responses • Near-term forecast • Long-term forecast • Final report format Report Final Draft Report Draft #1 Report to COMSTAC members for review Reporting COMSTAC Approval

  6. Forecast Methodology • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide • Individual demand requirements from operators • Comprehensive market inputs from satellite and launch manufacturers • Develop Long-Term (last 7 years) Forecast • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories • Develop Near-Term (1st 3 years) Mission Model • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name • WG consensus based on most recent information & individual operator inputs as available • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement

  7. Results from 2005 Forecast: Satellite Demand by Mass 2005 Forecast Indicated Continued Trend In Growth of Average Satellite Mass

  8. Interested in Joining Tech & Innovation WG? • Contact: Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services Lisa.m.hague@boeing.com 714-896-5603 -or- Dr. Alex Liang Aerospace Corp Alexander.c.liang@aero.org 310-336-4388 • 2005 Forecast Report: http://ast.faa.gov/files/pdf/Forecast_05-05_GSO_NGSO_Comm_Launch.pdf

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