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2006 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

2006 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. May 2006 Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group lisa.m.hague@boeing.com. Cover art by John Sloan/FAA. Overview. COMSTAC commercial GSO launch demand forecast Updated annually since 1993

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2006 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

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  1. 2006 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2006 Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group lisa.m.hague@boeing.com Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

  2. Overview • COMSTAC commercial GSO launch demand forecast • Updated annually since 1993 • Methodology has been consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to final product • 10-year forecast horizon (2006-2015) • 2006 commercial GSO satellite demand forecast effectively the same as the 2005 forecast • 10-year demand for 208 satellites vs. 205 satellites last year • 167 launches vs 164 forecast last year • 2006 report presents updates on: • Estimate of “realization” of forecast demand • Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite • Industry developments that may affect demand • Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand

  3. 2006 Technology & Innovation WG Lisa Hague (2006 GSO Forecast Chair) - The Boeing Company Dr. Alexander Liang (T&IWG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation Dr. Malina Hills / Dr. I-Shih Chang - Aerospace Corporation Doug Howe / Josef Lore - The Boeing Company Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV Chris Sanders - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne Bill Hayes / Kathy Shockey - Space Systems / Loral John Sloan - FAA AST Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Facktor Lepore - AirLaunch LLC Chris Kunstadter - XL Insurance MSgt Phil LeMaitre - HQ AFSPC/A3RS

  4. 2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Data Request • Individual and comprehensive GSO satellite launch demand was requested for the period 2006-2015 from 85 companies worldwide in the satellite and launch industry • 6 U.S. and 3 international satellite manufacturers / launch service providers submitted comprehensive inputs • 11 individual demand inputs were received from satellite operators • Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand • 16 satellite operators responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites

  5. Forecast Methodology • Compile inputs for 10-year projection of commercial GSO satellite demand from industry • Comprehensive market forecast from satellite manufacturers and launch vehicle providers • Individual demand requirements from satellite operators • Develop Long-Term (2008-2014) Demand Forecast • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories • Develop Near-Term (2006-2008) Mission Model • “Bottoms-up” forecast of planned satellite launches by name • Timing and likelihood of launches determined by members of WG • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement

  6. 2006 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

  7. Near-term Forecast (2006-2008)

  8. 2006 Commercial GSO Forecast By Satellite Mass Class • 2006 forecast indicates growth in average satellite mass will continue • On average 60% of satellites to be launched will be >4,200 kg • Number of satellites in the below 2,200kg category continues to shrink

  9. Historical Demand Forecast Comparison Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Has Leveled in Recent Years Following Years of Dramatic Decline

  10. 2005 Actual Launches vs Forecasted Demand • 2005 GSO Report forecasted demand of 22 satellites to be launched in 2005 • 16 addressable commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2005 • 5 satellite launches were delayed due to satellite issues • 1 satellite launch was delayed due to launch vehicle issues • 1 satellite launch was delayed due to both satellite & launch vehicle • 1 satellite launch projected for 2006 launched early • Actual number of satellites launched in 2005 was within the predicted realization band of 13 to 19 satellite launches

  11. Satellite Launch “Realization” vs Demand • The COMSTAC GSO forecast projects demand for satellite launches • Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year, including: • Satellite delays • Launch vehicle delays • Manifesting delays • A “realization” factor is calculated based on an historical analysis of forecast vs actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast • Funding • Weather • Regulatory delays

  12. 2006 GSO Demand Forecast with Realization Since first implementation of the realization factor in 2002, actual satellites launched has fallen within adjusted band

  13. Spacecraft Trends: Transponders 50% More Transponders Predicted To Be Launched in 2006

  14. Spacecraft Trends: Mass Record Satellite Mass Predicted To Launch in 2006 Due To Satellite Launch Delays From 2005

  15. Factors Affecting Demand • Economic conditions have been improving in some areas and low interest rates have increased access to low cost capital • Availabilty of insurance still an issue • Rollout of new services • Ka-band systems providing HDTV and broadband services (e.g. DIRECTV; Wildblue) may foster growth in demand • New MSS systems (ICO, TerreStar, MSV) rolling out • Digital audio radio systems successful in U.S. • Satellite operator consolidation • Recent merger of Intelsat and PanAmSat and SES Global acquisition of New Skies Satellites • Consolidation of satellite capacity may reduce the demand for new satellites

  16. 2006 COMSTAC Survey Questionnaire Summary

  17. 2006 COMSTAC Feedback Response Summary • Are the four payload mass category breakdowns appropriate? • Majority of respondents agreed they are appropriate • Working Group has discussed abandoning smallest mass category, as this mass class decreases in number • Which GSO forecast would be more useful to your company: the addressable commercial launch demand forecast or a total worldwide commercial launch demand forecast? • Majority of respondents believe total commercial GSO satellite launch demand is most useful • For U.S. launch vehicle manufacturers, addressable satellite launch demand defines market

  18. Summary of Findings • 2006 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast • Average annual satellite launch demand of 20.8 per year • 2006 demand for 23, with realization band between 13 and 20 • Forecasted satellite demand by mass class shows continued trend towards heavier satellites and decrease in demand of <2,200 kg satellites • Ability to obtain licenses and affordable insurance, as well as consolidation of service providers, negatively impacting satellite demand • The success of HDTV, DARS, and new broadband services may spur growth in demand in coming years

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