2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

1. 2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast 11 May 2011 Ronnie Johnson Strategic Planning United Launch Alliance veronica.c.johnson@ulalaunch.com Cover art by Phil Smith, The Tauri Group

2. Agenda • Membership and Methodology • Statistics • Market Assessment and Trends • Summary

3. Working Group Members Ronnie Johnson (2011 GSO Forecast Chair) United Launch Alliance John Sloan FAA AST Ken Davidian FAA AST Eric Laursen Lockheed Martin Tom Martin Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne Peter Stier Sea Launch Tom Monroe Space Systems/Loral Alan Keisner SpaceX Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance

4. Forecast Methodology • Purpose • To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general • Requested information from ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers, • Received responses from 22 companies in 2011 (14 in 2010; 21 in 2009) • Individual and comprehensive responses • International competitive procurements only • Used US inputs only for forecast • International inputs used for validation

5. Forecast Methodology (cont’d) • Sorted satellites by mass categories • Small < 2,500 kg • Medium 2,500 to 4,200 kg • Large 4,200 to 5,400 kg • Extra Large > 5,400 kg • Determined satellite/launch vehicle demand • Near-term manifest (2011-2013) • Long-term forecast (2014-2020) • Summarized responses to questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans • 14 satellite operators responded in 2011 (11 in 2010; 13 in 2009) • 12 new responders in 2010 • 2 operators responded in both 2010 and 2011

6. 2010 Commercial GSO Satellites and Launches Number of Launches in 2010 Ariane: 6 launches Proton: 8 launches Number of Satellites Launched in 2010 Proton: 8 satellites Ariane: 12 satellites * = Dual Manifest Launch

7. 2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Summary Average 20.5 satellites per year Average 15.6 launches per year 2011 forecast essentially unchanged from 2010 forecast

8. Forecast Sensitivities • Numerous factors impact launch forecast • Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues • Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather) • New launch vehicles • Business planning / financing • Regulatory / licensing issues • Hosted payloads • ITAR-free satellites • Realization factor assesses previous forecasts • Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted demand over 5-year rolling period • Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity

9. Realization Factor In 2010 the Forecast and the Actual Number of Satellites Launched Were Identical

10. Mass Category Forecast

11. Dual Launch Forecast

12. 2010-2011 Forecast Comparison

13. Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts Last four reports show consistent results

14. Satellite Operator Market Assessment

15. Forecast Trends • Near term (Years 1 to 3) • Satellites – stable • Launch demand – slight increase from 2011 to 2013 reflecting lower pace in 2010 • Natural “bow wave” • Satellite mass – some redistribution toward heavier mass classes • Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease • Long term (Years 4 to 10) • Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year) • Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year) • Natural decrease over time with lack of information

16. Forecast Summary • Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.5 satellites on 15.6 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years • Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market • New markets and new applications continue to emerge • Forecast methodology is robust, but need to reinforce responsiveness from industry • GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information