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Prediction of Crash Frequency at Rural Multilane Intersections: A Comprehensive Analysis

This study focuses on predicting crash frequency at rural multilane intersections, specifically along IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street in Glen Ellyn. Utilizing established multilane intersection crash prediction models, we assess the predicted crash frequency against historical crash data from 1986 to 1988. The results aim to provide insights into intersection safety performance by comparing substantive crash rates with predicted frequencies, evaluating significant minor and major road intersections in the area.

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Prediction of Crash Frequency at Rural Multilane Intersections: A Comprehensive Analysis

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  1. HSM Applications to Rural Multilane Intersections Exercise III – Prediction of Crash Frequency Performance for Rural Multilane Intersections and Comparison to Substantive Crash Performance - Session #08

  2. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Apply Multilane Intersection Crash Prediction models • Compare predicted Crash Frequency performance to Substantive safety performance Learning Outcomes:

  3. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Intersection Information: MINOR ROADS: Three Signalized intersections with single left turn lanes (no right turn lanes): Bloomingdale Road 16,100 AADT Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT MAJOR ROAD: IL 64 North Avenue is 37,000 AADT

  4. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Unsignalized T- Intersections w/o left turn lanes: Mildred 700 AADT Virginia 700 AADT Bernice 700 AADT Western 700 AADT Pearl 1,500 AADT Diane 700 AADT Evergreen 700 AADT Amy 700 AADT Newton 700 AADT Signalized 4-Approach Intersections with left turn lanes: Bloomingdale Road 16,100 AADT Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT

  5. Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Intersections:Total Injury Day Night Mildred 9 2 6 3 Virginia 12 3 9 3 Bernice 16 3 11 5 Western 11 4 7 4 Pearl 22 6 16 6 Diane 16 5 11 5 Evergreen 11 4 7 4 Amy 7 4 4 3 Newton 12 5 8 4 Bloomingdale Rd 170 68 122 48 Shopping Center 18 5 13 5 Main St-Glen Ellyn 146 45 100 46 Totals: 450 154 314 136

  6. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Study Section: Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Total Injury Crashes Crashes Day Night Rdwy Segment 84 26 57 27 12 Intersections 450 154 314 136 Totals: 534 180 371 163

  7. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Bloomingdale Road (signalized) • Shopping Center (signalized) • Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) • Eight “T” non-signalized intersections (700 ADT) • One “T” non-signalized intersection (1,500 ADT) • Use Worksheet Exercise III

  8. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Total the Predicted Crash Frequency performance for all intersections Bloomingdale Road (signalized) Shopping Center (signalized) Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) Eight “T” non-signalized intersections (700 AADT) One “T” non-signalized intersection (1,500 AADT) ____ ____ ____ ____ ___ Total _____

  9. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Compare the Substantive Intersection Crash Frequency Performance to the Predicted Crash Frequency Performance: Substantive Safety Performance = 450 in 3 yrs ____ per year Predicted Crash Frequency Performance = ____ per year Substantive Safety Performance less than Predicted Crash Frequency? YES/NO

  10. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Applied Multilane Intersection Crash Frequency Prediction models • Compared predicted Crash Frequency performance to Substantive Safety performance Learning Outcomes:

  11. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Questions and Discussion

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