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Hurricane Products

Hurricane Products. By John Metz NWS Corpus Christi, TX. Current Storm Situation How strong will it get? Where is it going? When will it hit? Forecast Confidence? What are the odds? Landfall Impacts?. Everything You Want to Know. Dean. www.nhc.noaa.gov. Everything You Want to Know.

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Hurricane Products

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  1. Hurricane Products By John Metz NWS Corpus Christi, TX

  2. Current Storm Situation How strong will it get? Where is it going? When will it hit? Forecast Confidence? What are the odds? Landfall Impacts? Everything You Want to Know Dean www.nhc.noaa.gov

  3. Everything You Want to Know Current Storm Situation How strong will it get? Where is it going? When will it hit? Forecast Confidence? What are the odds? Landfall Impacts? Hurricane Local Statements Public Advisory Forecast Advisory Discussion Wind Speed Probabilities

  4. www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.wml Moble: www.nhc.noaa.gov Look For Floater Images

  5. www.nhc.noaa.gov

  6. Tropical Weather Outlook Issued 4 times daily at 10am, 4pm, 10pm, & 4am Genesis forecasts provided to near 10%

  7. www.hurricanes.gov

  8. NHC Product Review Once a Depression Forms - Routine Advisory Products Begin

  9. Public Advisories Latest information on the storm Current Storm Situation • BULLETIN • HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 42 • NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 • 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 • ...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... • ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST... • SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION • ----------------------------------------------- • LOCATION...25.5N 88.4W • ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS • ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF GALVESTON TEXAS • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR • PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES • WATCHES AND WARNINGS • -------------------- • CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... • A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. • A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. • SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... • A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... • * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS • A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... • EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN . • * SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD • A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE • RUSHED TO COMPLETION. • A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. • FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. • DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK • ------------------------------ • AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED • NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE. IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE... A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ABOUT 10 MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. RAINFALL...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEXT ADVISORY -------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

  10. 5 Day Forecast Dean Forecast

  11. Inside the 4-5 day Error Cone? You are within the NHC Forecast Track plus the 5 year average error. No watches or warnings are in effect yet and may never be issued for your area for this storm. You should start thinking about what you would do if the threat increases!

  12. NHC Forecast Discussion Reasoning behind the forecast and forecaster confidence Forecaster Confidence HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENCOUNTERED A SMALL BAND OF FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 85 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 04Z...BUT MORE RECENTLY COULD ONLY FIND 55 KNOT WINDS IN THE SAME AREA. THE 85 KNOT OBSERVATION COULD BE USED TO UPGRADE DEAN TO A HURRICANE. BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED TO 1004 MB AND THE HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN TRANSITORY...THE OFFICIAL ONE-MINUTE SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS DEAN TO 76 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER 48 HOURS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CDO FEATURE DISTORTED...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE WEST SIDE OUTFLOW BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE RISE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE SIGNS OF INHIBITING THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ...BUT THEN STRENGTHENING MAY RESUME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/22. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 4 WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS BRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO BY TELEPHONE TO COORDINATE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 75.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.7N 78.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 82.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 85.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 88.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 92.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 93.0W 55 KT

  13. Wind Speed Probabilities What are the odds? Takes into account uncertainty in the forecast track, intensity, and size.

  14. Storm Surge Probabilities

  15. Experimental Storm Surge Probability - Ike Issued 5PM Thu Sept 11, 2008 Landfall 2AM Sat Sept 13, 2008

  16. New SLOSH – Storm Surge Height Above Ground Level (Inundation)

  17. Everything You Want to Know Current Storm Situation How strong will it get? Where is it going? When will it hit? Forecast Confidence? What are the odds? Landfall Impacts? Hurricane Local Statements www.hurricanes.gov Public Advisory Forecast Advisory Discussion Wind Speed Probabilities

  18. NHC Mobile www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile Basic HTML format cell.weather.gov WAP format

  19. NHC Operational Changes • Hurricane Watch issuance times extended to 48 Hours • Hurricane Warning issuance times extended to 36 Hours

  20. Local NWS Offices Lake Charles Austin/San Antonio Houston/ Galveston Corpus Christi Brownsville

  21. Local WFO Products Routine Products Area Forecast Discussion Hazardous Weather Outlook Zone Forecasts Coastal Waters Forecasts Digital Text Forecasts Graphical Forecasts Non Routine Products Hurricane Local Statement Inland Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch/Warning Extreme Wind Warnings Flood Watch/Warnings Flood Statements Tornado Warnings Severe Weather Statements Local Storm Reports Short Term Forecasts

  22. Hurricane Local Statement Produced by local NWS Offices Issued every 2 hours as soon as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane watch or warning is issued. Includes all local information including, flood potential, storm surge, tides, wind information and tornadoes Can be a lengthy product. Broadcasters recommended to read excerpts. HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 707 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003 ...HURRICANE DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND... .NEW INFORMATION... DETAILS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DEAN ARE DESCRIBED HERE. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 230 MILES TO THE EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN COULD BECOME A MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. DEAN HAS SOWN SIGNS OF TAKING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND AT 700 PM IT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. A CONTINUED GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS FORECAST TRACK... DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT OCONNOR ON TUESDAY EVENING. .PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM KLEBERG TO CALHOUN SHOULD COMPLETE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY TODAY. .STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS... AT 700 PM CDT...TIDES WERE AVERAGING AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AS DEAN APPROACHES THE COASTLINE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... TIDES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE…. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAVACA BAY MAY SEE STORM TIDES AS HIGH AS 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. HIGH TIDES AT PORT ARANSAS WILL OCCUR AT 745 AM ON TUESDAY AND 817 AM ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT PORT OCONNOR WILL BE AT 259 PM ON TUESDAY AND 400 PM ON WEDNESDAY. .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS ON TUESDAY MORNING. MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LAVACA BAY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND BEE COUNTIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH TEXAS BEACHES. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. .TORNADO IMPACTS... THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS CALHOUN... REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. .FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF A ROCKPORT TO COTULLA LINE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 PM CDT. $$ MJG

  23. E-Mail Updates

  24. 3 minute Weather Briefing Updated Daily by 10am. More Often During Tropical weather

  25. Hootsuite http://hootsuite.com

  26. NWSChat

  27. Extreme Wind Warning Produced by local NWS Offices Issued when the eyewall of a Cat 3+ hurricane is making landfall Sustained Winds greater than >115 mph within 1 hour. Take Immediate shelter to avoid onset of extreme wind conditions! TXC015-071-132100- /O.NEW.KHGX.EW.W.0013.040813T1938Z-040813T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED EXTREME WIND WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON - TX 338 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON HAS ISSUED AN * EXTREME WIND WARNING FOR THE ONSET OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH OR GREATER FOR... GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 335 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED EXTREME WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE CHARLIE...WERE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR NORTH GALVESTON ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 140 MPH...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION...CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE EYEWALL PASSES OVERHEAD. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTER WALLS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS. LAT...LON 2672 8226 2644 8213 2702 8174 2702 8207 $$

  28. Swells from Dean Buoy 42019 Measured 14 Ft Swells 4am Thursday Wave Watch III Model 14 Ft Swells Waves in Meters

  29. www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

  30. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

  31. Bob Hall Pier

  32. http://Lighthouse.tamucc.edu/Forecasts/WaterLevelForecasts

  33. Questions / Comments John.metz@noaa.gov 361-299-1354

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