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Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe

Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii. Alessandro Cini, UPMC, FEM & Gianfranco Anfora, FEM. cini.ales@gmail.com. Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe

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Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe

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  1. Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii Alessandro Cini, UPMC, FEM & Gianfranco Anfora, FEM • cini.ales@gmail.com Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe Wädenswil, Switzerland 26-27 March 2013 COST-Action FA 1104 Meeting – WG3 Crop Protection

  2. Talk overview • What’s going on in Trentino? • MONITORING IN TRENTINO • Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) • alberto.grassi@fmach.it • What’s going to happen in the future? • MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) • Markus Neteler, Duccio Rocchini, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) • markus.neteler@fmach.it • Where did the pest arrive and spread? • TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION • Alessio Papini, Ugo Santuososso (Univ. of Florence) • cini.ales@gmail.com

  3. Talk overview • What’s going on in Trentino? • MONITORING IN TRENTINO • Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) • alberto.grassi@fmach.it

  4. MONITORING Apple vinegar Seasonal dynamics of D. suzukii captures in Trentino # ADULTS / TRAP / WEEK APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 2012: 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP

  5. 2012: 36850 fruits analysed: 3780 were infected (10%-16% in 2011) MONITORING

  6. MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? a- PREVENTION AND CONTROL PROCEDURES b- CLIMATE a Mass trapping (about 50000 traps) Sanitation procedures Better tuned used of chemicals b Mean daily temp. (°C) – San Michele Winter Winter-Spring Summer

  7. MONITORING A more difficult winter for flies? CLIMATE – winter - Lower Temperatures - Fewer precipitations Mean daily temp. (°C) – San Michele • Possible increase in mortality of OVERWINTERING individuals •  High mortality of spontaneous blueberry plants in the wild (blueberry is a summer host of SWD)

  8. MONITORING CLIMATE – Winter/Spring .1 • Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females)

  9. MONITORING CLIMATE – Winter/Spring .1 • Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) • A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. Confirmation of movements in the lowlands 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females)

  10. MONITORING CLIMATE – Winter/Spring .2 • Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) • A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) • 2) Rapid drop of temp.  slow down of DD accumulation • Interference with already active individuals ? • Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%. • Effects on first generations development?

  11. MONITORING CLIMATE – Winter/Spring .2 • Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and whole March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) • Likely, a strong stimulus for adults to leave overwrintering site and exit the diapause. Supported by a delayed and reduced presence on cherries (FIRST KEY HOST) 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) • 2) Rapid drop-down of temp  slow down of DD accumulation • Interference with already active individuals ? • Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%. • Effects on first generations development?

  12. MONITORING CLIMATE- Summer - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD?

  13. MONITORING CLIMATE- Summer - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD? - Increase in average temperatures - Higher max temp. in 2012 - Reduced precipitations

  14. MONITORING FATTORICLIMATICI – estate Stasis in population growth: A critical period for SWD? FEMALE BIASED SEX RATIO - Increase in average temperatures - Higher max temp in 2012 - Reduced precipitations Reduction in available males for mating? Reduction in reproduction Reduced pop. growth & reduced infestations?

  15. MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? Mean daily temp. (°C) – San Michele Winter Winter-Spring Summer Precocious activation followed by unusual late cold climate Colder & drier Higher max Temp. OW Summer matings OW / First generations

  16. MONITORING «DROSKIDRINK» in RED BOTTLES: A HIGH-PERFORMANCE TRAP # ADULST / TRAP / WEEK APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. DROSKIDRINK APPLE VINEGAR 55 TRAPS 62100 ADULTS CAUGHT 1129 ADULTS/TRAP 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP

  17. Talk overview • What’s going on in Trentino? • MONITORING IN TRENTINO • What’s going to happen in the future? • MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)

  18. MODELING MODIS satellite sensor derived LST mapsmicroclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. Reconstructed daily land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites have been successfully used to predict areas of short term invasion of the invasive species [e.g. tiger mosquito, Neteler et al., 2011; Roiz et al., 2011) Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps allow temperature-based indicators to be derived in a GIS framework. We coupled information from DD models (Damus 2009, Coop 2010) with Modis derived LSt map with a GIS approach. • To build predictive model with high resolution at the local geographic scale - First egg laying; first emergence…

  19. MODELING FIRST EGG LAYING BY FEMALES 2011 Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map

  20. MODELING FIRST ADULTS EMERGENCE 2011 Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map

  21. MODELING 2012

  22. MODELING 2012 Again, good overall fit with field data from 2012

  23. Talk overview • What’s going on in Trentino? • MONITORING IN TRENTINO • What’s going to happen in the future? • MODELLING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) • Where did the pest arrive and spread? • TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION

  24. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Tracking the origin of introduction in Europe • Understanding the introduction pathways • -preventing new/recurrent colonization Simultaneous reports from Italy and Spain Calabria et al. 2012 Cini et al. 2012

  25. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geographic profiling: a new technique to identify the probable spreading center The Geographic Profiling function generates a surface where each pixel has a different priority score indicating the optimal search pattern for the sources of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012). Gp outperforms traditional techniques to find source population of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012).

  26. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geoprofiling approach Parameters: from Stevenson et al. 2012 Python program Geoprof1_3.py Data: C. Baroffio, A. Escudero + published reports and papers (e.g. Calabria et al., 2012, Suss & Costanzi 2011 …) Spatial resolution: Heterogeneity in reports  not possible to use GPS data  standardized using a 30X30 km grid. One point per cell. More than 70 locations (2008-2010) and more than 100 (2008-2011) Temporal resolution: we used presence data for years from 2008 to 2010 and 2008 to 2011. Before 2010 too few data to produced reliable results, after 2012 too much data: high monitoring campaign in some but not all region. The early post invasion period is crucial.

  27. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 20082010 distribution

  28. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 20082010 distribution Red=95%Yellow=90%

  29. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 20082010 distribution Variation in algorithm parameters changes the area but not the localization Red=95%Yellow=90%

  30. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 20082011 distribution Again, slightly different area but same localization

  31. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Only those countries where SWD is reported. e.g. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, India....

  32. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits

  33. TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits Propagule pressure (tons of potentially infested hosts imported) is higher in France

  34. Talk overview • What’s going on in Trentino? • MONITORING IN TRENTINO • Importance of climate; support for modelling, new trap protocol • What’s going to happen in the future? • MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) • GIS based predictive model can be reliable, but should be implemented • Where did the pest arrive and spread? • TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION • - France as origin of spread?  prioritizing investigation areas for population genetics

  35. Thanks for your attention

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