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ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview. Background/Establishment 1969 Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1975 ECMWF convention in force 1978 Headquarters building completed Start of operational activities

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ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

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  1. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

  2. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Background/Establishment 1969Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1975ECMWF convention in force 1978Headquarters building completed Start of operational activities 1978Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1983T63 (320 km) / L16 spectral model 1991T213 (95 km) / L31 spectral model 1993Ensemble prediction system 1996 Fujitsu VPP300-C and VPP700-46 19974D-Var data assimilation 2000 Fujitsu VPP 5000/100, T511/L60 model 2001Web site enhanced: RMDCN extended to 33 States: 2002IBM p690 HPCF and new Data Handling System installed 2006T799 (25 km) 2010T1279 (16 km) 2010 New convention has been entered into force

  3. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Belgium Ireland Portugal Denmark Italy Switzerland Germany Luxembourg Finland Spain The Netherlands Sweden France Norway Turkey Greece Austria United Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with: Czech Republic Lithuania ACMAD Croatia Montenegro ESA Estonia Morocco EUMETSAT Hungary Romania WMO Iceland Serbia JRC Israel Slovakia CTBTO Latvia Slovenia CLRTAP

  4. Main Objectives • Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including ocean waves) • R & D activities in forecast modelling • Data archiving and related services • Operational forecasts for the coming month and season • Advanced NWP training • Provision of supercomputer resources • Assistance to WMO programmes • Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN)

  5. Organisation of ECMWF Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members COUNCIL 18 Member States Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Finance Committee 7 Members DIRECTOR-General Prof. Alan Thorpe UK Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-31 Members Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 12 Members Operations Administration Research Meteorological Division Computer Division Model Division Data Division Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division

  6. Budget Spain 7.95% Main Revenue 2010 Member States’contributions £36,703,200 Co-operating States’contributions £861,600 Other Revenue £1,275,000 Total£38,839,800 Germany 20.20% France 15.46% Luxembourg 0.23% Denmark 1.87% Greece 1.74% Belgium 2.71% Ireland 1.23% Main Expenditure 2010 Staff £15,199,900 Leaving Allowances& Pensions £3,298,600 ComputerExpenditure £15,809,000 Buildings £3,647,700 Supplies £884,600 Total £38,839,800 United Kingdom 16.43% Italy 12.66% Turkey 2.38% Netherlands 4.61% Sweden 2.66% Norway 2.13% Finland 1.42% Austria 2.16% Switzerland 2.89% Portugal 1.29% GNI Scale 2009–2011

  7. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview ECMWF is world leading centre in medium range forecasting

  8. ECMWF Forecast Products Atmosphere global forecasts • Forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 16 km resolution and 91 levels • 50 ensemble forecasts to fifteen days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution Ocean wave forecasts • Global forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 28 km resolution • European waters forecast to five days from 00 and 12 UTC at 11 km resolution 51-member ensemble prediction system • To day 15 from 00 and 12 UTC (to day 32 on Thursdays at 00 UTC) • 32 km resolution up to day 10, then 65 km • 62 vertical levels • 12 UTC with persisted SST up to day 15, 00 UTC with persisted SST up today 10 and then coupled ocean model • Coupled ocean has horizontally varying resolution (⅓ to 1°), 9 vertical levels. • Coupled wave model Seasonal forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model • Global forecasts to seven months:atmosphere: 1.125° resolution, 62 levelsocean: horizontally-varying resolution (⅓° to 1°), 29 levels

  9. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview • Reanalyses (ERA-15, ERA-40, ERA-Interim) • Boundary conditions for Limited Area Models (LAM) • Data Services • Provision of real-time data • Provision of archived data and products • Provision of software

  10. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview • Training Courses • Numerical methods • Data assimilation & use of satellite data • Parametrization of diabatic processes • Predictability, diagnostics and long-range forecasting • Use and interpretation of ECMWF products • Computer user training courses • Seminars • Research Seminars (annually) • Meteorological Operational Systems (biennial) • Large-scale Computing (biennial) • Workshops

  11. Current computer configuration ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview June 2010

  12. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview RMDCN

  13. RMDCN Connections ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview RMDCN Global Coverage (March 2010)

  14. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Z500,N.Hem, T+72

  15. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Verification of TC predictions from the operational deterministic forecast for 12-month periods ending on 14 July. The latest period, 15 July 2008 to 14 July 2009, is shown in red.Within each year, the sample size is the same at each forecast step (but the number of cyclones varies from year to year).

  16. ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members Services Conventional GTS, ftp data downloads, WEB plots, EUMETCast Data resolution 0.5°× 0.5° global, (tropic belt for vorticity and divergence parameter) “Essential” ProductsMSL pressure 850 hPa temperature and winds 500 hPa geopotential height EPS mean and standard deviation of all above parameters Validity: Analysis, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168, 192, 216, 240 hour forecasts FrequencyTwice per day, based on 00 and 12 UTC data FormatWMO FM92-Ext GRIB edition 2http://www.ecmwf.int/about/wmo_nmhs_access/conditions.html

  17. ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members “Additional” Products700, 500, 200 hPa winds 850, 700 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa vorticity and divergence Significant wave height, wave mean period, wave mean direction EPS event probabilities total precipitation >10/20 mm, 10m wind gusts >15/25m/s, significant wave height > 2/4/6/8m Seasonal System sea surface temperature anomalies Tropical Cyclone Tracks (WMO FM-92 BUFR) Products only available as WEB Products Extreme Forecast Indices EPSgrams (site specific forecasts of near surface weather parameters up to 10 days)

  18. Data sources for the ECMWF Meteorological Operational System (EMOS)

  19. Satellite data used by ECMWF

  20. Operationalmodel levels(91-level model) ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

  21. Operational model grid ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

  22. Model grids for T799 (25 km) and T1279 (16 km) ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

  23. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Starting Forecasts • The observations are used to correct errors in the short forecast from the previous analysis time. • Every twelve hours we process 6 – 10,000,000 observations to correct the 80,000,000 numbers that define the model’s virtual atmosphere. • This is done by a careful 4-dimensional interpolation in space and time of the available observations; this operation takes as much computer power as the 10-day forecast.

  24. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Importance of observations(Analysis) for medium range forecast

  25. Data assimilation THE FORECAST is continuously compared against a variety of meteorological measurements. If we imagine the whole world encapsulated by a grid, the grid points are the locations where the forecast is computed. The meteorological measurements can be taken in any location in the grid. A short-range forecast (blue ‘F’) provides an estimate of the atmosphere that can be compared with the measurements (yellow crosses). The two kinds of information are combined to form a corrected representation of the atmosphere (green ticks). Corrections are computed and applied twice per day. This automatic process is called ‘Data Assimilation’.

  26. ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Thanks for your attention…

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