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Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation

Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation. Michael Obersteiner. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model. AGRICULTURE. FOREST. OTHER. =. DEMAND. SUPPLY. Livestock. Bioenergy. Forest Products. Ind.Roundwood Firewood Biomass 4 Energy. 60 Crops

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Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation

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  1. Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation Michael Obersteiner

  2. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model AGRICULTURE FOREST OTHER = DEMAND SUPPLY Livestock Bioenergy Forest Products Ind.Roundwood Firewood Biomass 4 Energy 60 Crops 6 Input Systems Modèles biophysiques G4M EPIC Land (type de sol, altitude, inclinaison, climat,système d’exploitation)

  3. Globally Consistent REDD++

  4. Presentation of the model • With a focus on Congo Basin • 1550 Simulation Units from10*10km to 50*50 km • Detailed infrastructure network Global coverage • 28 regions • Endogenous prices • Bilateral trade flows

  5. Model application Simulation horizon: 2000–2030 Scenarios • Biofuels • Mead • Technological change • Infrastructure improvement Sensitivity analysis : REDD policy • 50%, 75%, 90% reduction of global deforestation compared to the situation Business As Usual (BAU)

  6. Model application • Infrastructure scenario Transport time with completed Trans-African Road network Transport time with existing infrastructure Scenario Average = 40 hours Average = 23 hours

  7. Deforestation after infrastructure improvement [1000 ha/SimU/10 years] I: Regional zooming - CongoBIOM Green = low Red = high

  8. Deforestation Impact • Deforested area in Congo Basin in 2030 (Mio. Ha)

  9. Marginal REDD++ costs

  10. Food Security • Crop price index

  11. Global Mitigation and Trade

  12. Mitigation through Yield Improvements • Input neutral yield growth • Plant material • Pest and disease management • Input based yield growth • Subsistence, extensive, intensive, irrigated intensive • Productivity gains by geographic allocation of production • Trade

  13. REDD+ and Agriculture based Mitigation 100% 71% 52% 41%

  14. Global Wheat Trade 2050 % of Baseline % of total production

  15. Crop Price Index

  16. Bioenergy & Mitigation

  17. Global Energy Portfolio – 1.5-2DG target Source: Azar et al. 2010

  18. Bioelectricity from CHP Heat&Cooking 2ndGennTransportfuels

  19. Impact of BiofuelsMarginal Analysis - 2050 100%

  20. Challenges • Embodied technology transfer through FDI • International capital transfer • Trade liberalization • Get supply chains climate smarter such that funding reaches the ground improved agricultural practices (e.g. roundtables and certification [CGF]) => lower prices and price volatility • more environmental services not only GHGs • adaptation co-benefits

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