Outline

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop,Paraguay, August 14-18 2006Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones

2. Outline • Drivers & impacts on coastal areas • Adaptation options • V&A tools & data sources • Integrating mechanisms • Conclusions

3. Drivers & impacts on coastal areas

4. Climate Change and Coastal Resources • Coastal resources will be affected by a number of consequences of climate change, including: • Higher sea levels • Higher sea temperatures • Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff • Changed oceanic conditions • Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities

5. Table 5.2. The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002). Biogeophysical effect Other relevant factors Climate Nonclimate Inundation, flood and storm damage Surge Wave and storm climate, morphological changes, sediment supply Sediment supply, flood management, morphological changes, land claim Backwater effect (river) Runoff Catchment management and land use Wetland loss (and change) CO2 fertilization Sediment supply Sediment supply, migration space, direct destruction Erosion Sediment supply, wave and storm climate Sediment supply Saltwater intrusion Surface waters Runoff Catchment management and land use Groundwater Rainfall Land use, aquifer use Rising water tables/impeded drainage Rainfall Land use, aquifer use The Main Biophysical Effects of Relative Sea Level Rise

6. Biogeophysical effects Climate factor Direction of change Some Climate Change Factors Table 5.1. Some climate change and related factors relevant to coasts and their biogeophysical effects (taken from Nicholls, 2002) Sea water temperature (of surface waters) Increase Increased coral bleaching; migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes Precipitation intensity/run-off Intensified hydrological cycle, with wide regional variations Changed fluvial sediment supply; changed flood risk in coastal lowlands; but also consider catchment management Wave climate Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Changed patterns of erosion and accretion; changed storm impacts Storm track, frequency, and intensity Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Changed occurrence of storm flooding and storm damage Increased productivity in coastal ecosystems; decreased CaCO3 saturation impacts on coral reefs Atmospheric CO2 Increase

7. Current Global Predictions of Sea Level Rise • IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) range for global-mean rise in sea level is between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100 • Change outside this range is possible, especially if Antarctica becomes a significant source • There is a “commitment to sea level rise” even if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized

8. Global-Mean Sea Level Rise 1990 to 2100 (SRES scenarios) Houghton et al., 2001

9. Processes Controlling Sea-LevelChange • Relative sea-level changes

10. Land Subsidence Mexico City Source: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html

11. Subsidence in Mexico City and the Chalco Plain Source: Adapted from Ortega et al., 1993

12. Factors in Local Predictions • Relative sea level rise: global and regional components plus land movement • Land uplift can counter any global sea level rise • Land subsidence can exacerbate any global sea level rise • Other dynamic oceanic and climatic effects cause regional differences (oceanic circulation, wind and pressure, and ocean-water density differences add additional component)

13. Sea Level Rise at New York City1850 to 2100 IPCC TAR range due to SRES emission scenarios McCarthy et al., 2001

14. Other Climate Change(Hurricane Katrina) Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/aug/hazards.html

15. Gulfport, Mississippi, July 05

16. Grand Casino, Gulfport 21 Sept 2005

17. Caman, Peru, and Tsunami Vulnerability http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

18. Atolls, Belize Source: http://home.swbell.net/skyisles/islands.html

19. Coral Impacts • “Recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate. • While the net effects of climate change on coral reefs will be negative, coral reef organisms and communities are not necessarily doomed to total extinction. • Multiple environmental management strategies, from local to global, will be necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of the world’s coral reef ecosystems.” Buddemeier et al, 2004

20. Population and Population Density vs. Distance and Elevationin 1990

21. Tianjin Dhaka Seoul Osaka Istanbul Tokyo New York Shanghai Los Angeles Manila Bangkok Lagos Mumbai Lima Karachi Madras Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Buenos Aires Calcutta Coastal Megacities (>8 million people)Forecast for 2010

22. Rio de Janeiro's waterfront, 1919 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro%27s_waterfront%2C_1919.jpg

23. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro-Ipanema_Beach.jpg

24. Havana, Cuba http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

25. Controls on Coastal Position antecedent sea-level littoral sediment change physiography supply (±ve) boundary conditions (external) fluvial-delta inlet bypassing C D resuspension & inlet bypassing lagoon basin mud mid-shelf mud lower shoreface backbarrier marine sand wedge inner-shelf sand A B cross-shelf bypassing upper shoreface inlet transport coastal tract

26. Rio de la Plata http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

27. SeaWiFS: sediment plumes off the coast of Chile http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

28. Beach Erosion, Barbados Before Storm After Storm Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

29. Biogeophysical Effects of Sea Level Rise • Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands • Increased coastal erosion • Increased flooding (frequency and depth) • Salinization of surface and groundwaters • Plus others

30. Ecosystem Loss • Inundation and displacement of wetlands • e.g., mangroves, saltmarsh, intertidal areas • Areas provide • Flood protection • Nursery areas for fisheries • Important for nature conservation • Loss of valuable resources, tourism

31. Coastal Ecosystems at Risk • KEY: • mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs

32. Reefs and Mangroves, Latin America and Caribbean http://www.unep-wcmc.org/marine/data/coral_mangrove/marine_maps_main.html

33. United Nations Environment Programme Interactive Mapping Tool Source: http://bure.unep-wcmc.org/imaps/marine/mangroves/viewer.htm

34. Mangroves as indicators of coastal change, Brazil

35. Coastal Squeeze (of coastal wetlands) Sea Level Rise (a) no hard defenses (b) hard defenses

36. Socioeconomic Impacts • Loss of property and land • Increased flood risk/loss of life • Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure • Loss of renewable and subsistence resources • Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats • Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality

37. Adaptation Options

38. Responding to Coastal Change(including sea level rise) • Retreat • Accommodation • Protect • Soft • Hard

39. Adaptation Methods • Retreat • Managed retreat • Relocation from high risk zones • Accommodation • Public awareness • Natural disaster management planning

40. Adaptation Methods (continued) • Protect • Hard options • Revetments, breakwaters, groins • Floodgates, tidal barriers • Soft options • Beach/wetland nourishment • Dune restoration

41. Beach Nourishment, Nevis Eroded Beach Re-nourished Beach Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

42. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures • Climate change predictions • Rise in sea level • Increase in number and intensity of tropical weather systems • Increase in severity of storm surges • Changes in rainfall

43. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued) • Coastal impacts • Damage to property/infrastructure • Damage/loss of coastal/marine ecosystems • Destruction of hotels and tourism facilities • Increased risk of disease • Damage/loss of fisheries infrastructure • General loss of biodiversity • Submergence/inundation of coastal areas

44. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued) • Adaptation (retreat, protect, accommodate) • Improved physical planning and development control • Strengthening/implementation of EIA regulations • Formulation of Coastal Zone Management Plan • Monitoring of coastal habitats, including beaches • Formulation of national climate change policy • Public awareness and education

45. Shoreline Management and Adaptation

46. V&A Tools & Data Sources

47. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment • Principles • Older tools • Top down • Bottom up

48. Methods to Assess Impacts of Sea Level Rise • Sea level rise & climate change scenarios • Screening assessment • Erosion • Flooding • Top-down • Bottom up

49. Screening Assessment • Rapid assessment to highlight possible impacts of a sea level rise scenario and identify information/data gaps • Qualitative or semiquantitative • Steps • Collation of existing coastal data • Assessment of the possible impacts of a high sea level rise scenario • Implications of future development • Possible responses to the problems caused by sea level rise

50. Step 1: Collation of Existing Data • Topographic surveys • Aerial/remote sensing images – topography/ land cover • Coastal geomorphology classification • Evidence of subsidence • Long-term relative sea level rise • Magnitude and damage caused by flooding • Coastal erosion • Population density • Activities located on the coast (cities, ports, resort areas and tourist beaches, industrial and agricultural areas)