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African Economic Outlook 2003/2004

African Economic Outlook 2003/2004. Outline. Background information Macroeconomic projections Poverty outlook Energy focus. Background Information. A joint project by ADB & OECD Development Centre Structure Overview Country Notes Statistical Annex Country coverage.

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African Economic Outlook 2003/2004

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  1. African Economic Outlook 2003/2004

  2. Outline • Background information • Macroeconomic projections • Poverty outlook • Energy focus

  3. Background Information • A joint project by ADB & OECD Development Centre • Structure • Overview • Country Notes • Statistical Annex • Country coverage

  4. Country coverage, 2003/04

  5. The 2003/2004 outlook A modest recovery, due to both internal and external factors

  6. Growth rates in OECD area

  7. ODA to Africa

  8. On the negative side: US dollar depreciation

  9. Average growth rates of African countries

  10. Best and worst performers

  11. Inflation is under control (with a few exceptions)Agregate CPI inflation (%)excluding hyper-inflation countries

  12. Fiscal situation of many countriesis still weakFiscal balance as % of GDP, 2003 estimate

  13. Poverty sub-Saharan Africa will miss the 2015 MDGs target by a large extent

  14. The income poverty target

  15. Progress toward achieving MDGs

  16. Energy focus The energy sectors may play significant role in poverty alleviation and development: • Energy contributes to improving people’s lives • Energy contributes to the development of economic activities • Energy contributes to the efficiency of economic management

  17. Energy focus However, the African energy sectors hardly play such a role; they are characterized by: • too heavy reliance on traditional energy sources (biomass), related to inadequate supply of modern energy • underutilization of potential sources of energy • mismanagement of resources that are utilized

  18. World structure: Biomass 14% Electricity 16% Petroleum 44 % Structure of energy consumption in Africa (2001) Coal 7 % Gas 16%

  19. Oil and NGLs

  20. Gas

  21. Hydroelectric power

  22. Supply of motor gasoline in Nigeria (2001)

  23. Observed taxation on oil export

  24. Electricity losses in 2001

  25. Thank you

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