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GFDL's Climate Change, Variability and Prediction Group

GFDL's Climate Change, Variability and Prediction Group. Tom Delworth , Whit Anderson, Keith Dixon, Takeshi Doi, You-Soon Chang, Kirsten Findell, Rich Gudgel, Bill Hurlin, Tom Knutson, Hyun-Chul Lee, Chris Milly, Rym Msadek,

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GFDL's Climate Change, Variability and Prediction Group

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  1. GFDL's Climate Change, Variability and Prediction Group Tom Delworth, Whit Anderson, Keith Dixon, Takeshi Doi, You-Soon Chang, Kirsten Findell, Rich Gudgel, Bill Hurlin, Tom Knutson, Hyun-Chul Lee, Chris Milly, Rym Msadek, Tony Rosati, Joe Sirutis, Bill Stern, Gabe Vecchi, Mike Winton, Andrew Wittenberg, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, Shaoqing Zhang

  2. Climate Change, Variability and Prediction “Develop and use coupled ocean-atmosphere models to improve understanding of global climate and its predictability on seasonal to centennial scales, and work to improve climate forecasts.” 1. Patterns of response to climate change - Polar/land/winter amplification - Wet wetter, dry drier; weaker Walker Cell - Aerosols delay GHG warming in short term 2. Climate change and hurricanes - Past behavior and future risks - Stronger Atlantic storms by end-of-century (too early to detect)

  3. Climate Change, Variability and Prediction 3. Decadal climate variability & predictability - How might decadal phenomena confound climate change signals? - What are the most predictable signals, and how do they operate? - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Droughts/floods (cold Pacific, warm Atlantic → N. Am. drought) 4. Seasonal-to-interannual variability & prediction - How predictable are El Niño events and their long-term behavior? - How does ENSO respond to climate changes? - Tropical Atlantic & Indian Ocean variability - Coupled and 2-tiered forecasts → multi-model ensemble

  4. Climate Change, Variability and Prediction 5. Ocean observations & reanalysis - Observational data quality control, coupled data assimilation - State estimation, initialization, model evaluation - parameter estimation 6. Coupled model development - CMDT + (A/O/ES)MDT: CM2.1, CM3, ESM2M, ESM2G - CM2.5 (25 → 10km ocean; 50km atmosphere) - improved ITCZ - Southern Ocean sensitivity tempered by mesoscale eddies - CM2.6 (10km → 4km ocean; 50km atmosphere)

  5. To learn more: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-change-variability-and-prediction

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