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Michigan Land Resource Project

Funding provided by:. The W.K. Kellogg Foundation of Battle CreekThe Frey Foundation of Grand Rapids. Participants in the Study. Oversight: Public Sector Consultants, Inc., LansingLand Use Projections: Michigan State UniversityStuart GageBryan PijanowskiDavid SkoleEconomic Impact Assessments:

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Michigan Land Resource Project

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    1. Michigan Land Resource Project A look at the future of land use in Michigan and the impacts on its land-based industries Simply introduce the project.Simply introduce the project.

    2. Funding provided by: The W.K. Kellogg Foundation of Battle Creek The Frey Foundation of Grand Rapids State our funding sources. The W.K. Kellogg Foundation was established in 1930 to help people help themselves through the practical application of knowledge and resources to improve their quality of life and that of future generations. Its programming activities center around the common vision of a world in which each person has a sense of worth; accepts responsibility for self, family, community, and societal well-being; and has the capacity to be productive and help create nurturing families, responsive institutions, and healthy communities. The foundation targets its grants toward specific areas, including health; food systems and rural development; youth education and higher education; and philanthropy and volunteerism. Within these funding areas, grants are targeted toward promoting leadership; information systems/technology; efforts to capitalize on diversity; and family, neighborhood, and community development programming. Grants are concentrated in the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and southern Africa. The Frey Foundation, based in Grand Rapids, is one of Michigans largest family foundations. Grants are provided primarily to nonprofit organizations in southwestern Michigan for projects to enhance childrens development, protect natural resources, promote the arts, and expand philanthropic and civic action. The Frey Foundation was established in 1974 by the late Edward J. and Frances T. Frey. Mr. Frey was longtime chief executive officer of Union Bank (now Bank One) and founded Foremost Insurance Company in Grand Rapids. Trustees of the Frey Foundation are David G. Frey, Edward J. Frey, Jr., John M. Frey, and Mary Caroline (Twink) Frey. State our funding sources. The W.K. Kellogg Foundation was established in 1930 to help people help themselves through the practical application of knowledge and resources to improve their quality of life and that of future generations. Its programming activities center around the common vision of a world in which each person has a sense of worth; accepts responsibility for self, family, community, and societal well-being; and has the capacity to be productive and help create nurturing families, responsive institutions, and healthy communities. The foundation targets its grants toward specific areas, including health; food systems and rural development; youth education and higher education; and philanthropy and volunteerism. Within these funding areas, grants are targeted toward promoting leadership; information systems/technology; efforts to capitalize on diversity; and family, neighborhood, and community development programming. Grants are concentrated in the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and southern Africa. The Frey Foundation, based in Grand Rapids, is one of Michigans largest family foundations. Grants are provided primarily to nonprofit organizations in southwestern Michigan for projects to enhance childrens development, protect natural resources, promote the arts, and expand philanthropic and civic action. The Frey Foundation was established in 1974 by the late Edward J. and Frances T. Frey. Mr. Frey was longtime chief executive officer of Union Bank (now Bank One) and founded Foremost Insurance Company in Grand Rapids. Trustees of the Frey Foundation are David G. Frey, Edward J. Frey, Jr., John M. Frey, and Mary Caroline (Twink) Frey.

    3. Participants in the Study Oversight: Public Sector Consultants, Inc., Lansing Land Use Projections: Michigan State University Stuart Gage Bryan Pijanowski David Skole Economic Impact Assessments: Agriculture: Jake Ferris (MSU) Forestry: Michael Moore (UM) Mining: Mark Roberts & Gary Campbell (MTU) Tourism/Recreation: Charles Nelson (MSU) Communication: Pace & Partners, Inc., Lansing Evaluation: Planning & Zoning Center, Inc., Lansing Explain who was responsible for what tasks for the project.Explain who was responsible for what tasks for the project.

    4. Participants in the Study (cont.) Advisory Council Crystal Mountain Resort Chris MacInnes International Paper Mark Pontti Michigan Chamber of Commerce Jim Barrett and Kevin Korpi Michigan Farm Bureau Al Almy Michigan State University Gordon Guyer and William Taylor Michigan United Conservation Clubs Dennis Fox and Jim Goodheart The Frey Foundation John Frey and Milt Rohwer We would like to recognize members of the Michigan Economic and Environmental Roundtable (MEER) and the advisory council who assisted with the project. The advisory council consisted of representatives from the resource-based industries and other stakeholders. The advisory council helped ensure that project goals and outcomes are appropriate for their respective industries and interests and can be effectively communicated to them. Both groups oversaw and were engaged in the entire project. We are particularly grateful for their input. Feel free not to go through all the names.We would like to recognize members of the Michigan Economic and Environmental Roundtable (MEER) and the advisory council who assisted with the project. The advisory council consisted of representatives from the resource-based industries and other stakeholders. The advisory council helped ensure that project goals and outcomes are appropriate for their respective industries and interests and can be effectively communicated to them. Both groups oversaw and were engaged in the entire project. We are particularly grateful for their input. Feel free not to go through all the names.

    5. Participants in the Study (cont.) MEER Members MEER President - James DuBay AFL/CIO Tim Hughes East Michigan Environmental Action Council Elizabeth Harris Greater Downtown Partnership, Inc. Larry Marantette Hanson Cold Storage Company Jordan Tatter Michigan Environmental Council Lana Pollack and Conan Smith Michigan Farm Bureau Al Almy Michigan Municipal League George Goodman Michigan Retailers Association Larry Meyer Michigan State University Gordon Guyer and William Taylor Michigan United Conservation Clubs Dennis Fox and Jim Goodheart The Dow Chemical Company Joy Hutchison The Nature Conservancy Helen Taylor Traverse City Area Chamber of Commerce Hal VanSumeren Washtenaw County Drain Commissioner Janis Bobrin

    6. Introduction Michigans land-based industries agriculture, forestry, mining, tourism and recreation contribute $63 Billion (30%) to the states economy Land use change is a significant issue, which could have a profound impact on these industries in the future Land-based industries contribute to our scenic landscape and quality of life Polls show that citizens care about land use change: 72% are concerned about loss of agriculture land, 65% believe that loss of forests is a serious problem $64 Billion is 30% of the states economy. This figure is an estimate that combines several years of data. Quality of life typically drives business re-location decisions among all sectors of businesses. Citation for the last bullet: Shaping our Future: A report to the W.K. Kellogg Foundation on Land Use Issues in Michigan Public Sector Consultants, Inc. December 15, 1997.$64 Billion is 30% of the states economy. This figure is an estimate that combines several years of data. Quality of life typically drives business re-location decisions among all sectors of businesses. Citation for the last bullet: Shaping our Future: A report to the W.K. Kellogg Foundation on Land Use Issues in Michigan Public Sector Consultants, Inc. December 15, 1997.

    7. Goals Provide through quantitative distribution a credible estimate of the future land use map for the entire state. Evaluate the impact of land use change on Michigans land- based industries if current trends continue for 2020 and 2040. Determine what would be the cumulative impacts of current land use trends for Michigans economy. Hit home bullet #2: For those in their twenties and thirties, we are talking about the Michigan that their children will experience. And for those in their forties, fifties, and sixties we are talking about the Michigan that their children and grandchildren will inherit. Other objectives include assisting the resource-based industries in understanding (1) their role in land-use decision making and the impact of that role and (2) Michigans changing landscape in the land-based industries. The underlying goal is to cultivate a common understanding and a heightened sense of awareness of how land-use decision making may affect the future of these industries. Ultimately, it is our hope that the land-based industries will be empowered to take a more active role in the forces that will shape our landscape in the future and to help decision-makers think about these industries in the context of land use debates. Hit home bullet #2: For those in their twenties and thirties, we are talking about the Michigan that their children will experience. And for those in their forties, fifties, and sixties we are talking about the Michigan that their children and grandchildren will inherit.

    8. Approach and Method Land use classes: Built (residential, commercial, industrial), Agriculture, Forest, Other Vegetation (non-forest non-agriculture), Wetland, Water Used existing digital maps of land use and landscape features, including: MiRIS land use data from 1980 (last statewide data) 17 (out of 83) countywide updates for 1995 Considered roads and infrastructure in place as of 2000, rivers and lakes, and other mapped features The 17 key counties were used to extrapolate the entire state for 1980-1995. Here, we are explaining how the projections were made: 1) used DNR-produced, 1980 base land use covers this is the last known, complete dataset. Also explain that built does not mean urban and that other veg can be thought of as open space. 2) used updates from 17 counties (include SEMCOG region, Grand Traverse, and Muskegon) to discover trends from 1980-1995. 3) used those 1980-1995 trends to extrapolate to entire State, so the set is skewed by these counties growth trends. There is no UP or northern lower counties. 4) The model was then checked for accuracy. When the model was checked against periods for which data were available, it did well. For example, data were checked against the 1980-1995 period for the 17 counties and the data compared well. continues on next slide Here, we are explaining how the projections were made: 1) used DNR-produced, 1980 base land use covers this is the last known, complete dataset. Also explain that built does not mean urban and that other veg can be thought of as open space. 2) used updates from 17 counties (include SEMCOG region, Grand Traverse, and Muskegon) to discover trends from 1980-1995. 3) used those 1980-1995 trends to extrapolate to entire State, so the set is skewed by these counties growth trends. There is no UP or northern lower counties. 4) The model was then checked for accuracy. When the model was checked against periods for which data were available, it did well. For example, data were checked against the 1980-1995 period for the 17 counties and the data compared well. continues on next slide

    9. Approach and Method Using the trends identified from 1980 to 1995, current geographic relationships, and demographic & economic projections, projected a map of future land use Utilized computer simulation models to estimate the future map of land use for Michigan Changes in land use conversion of forests, farms, and other landscapes to sprawl for 2020 and 2040 The rate of land development is 8 times the population growth rate i.e. an 8-to-1 ratio 5) Those trends from 1980-1995 were also used to make estimates of land use change for 2020 and 2040. 6) The result are digital maps showing the land use change in each time period. On the 8:1 ratio or last bullet: Changes in the amount of built area between the 1980 and 1995 were calculated in relationship to population change during the same period. In this 15-year period, the amount of built area in those counties with updated information increased by 25 percent. During this same time period, the total population of these counties increased by about 3 percent. This ratio (25:3) represents more than an eight-fold increase of urban land usage in relation to the population increase. In the SEMCOG region for a 20 yr. period, there was a 5% population increase and a 40% land increase. This rate is comparable to the 10-acre lot syndrome. Historical perspective: rate in the 1930s = 1:1, 1960s =3:1, 1978 = 5:15) Those trends from 1980-1995 were also used to make estimates of land use change for 2020 and 2040. 6) The result are digital maps showing the land use change in each time period. On the 8:1 ratio or last bullet: Changes in the amount of built area between the 1980 and 1995 were calculated in relationship to population change during the same period. In this 15-year period, the amount of built area in those counties with updated information increased by 25 percent. During this same time period, the total population of these counties increased by about 3 percent. This ratio (25:3) represents more than an eight-fold increase of urban land usage in relation to the population increase. In the SEMCOG region for a 20 yr. period, there was a 5% population increase and a 40% land increase. This rate is comparable to the 10-acre lot syndrome. Historical perspective: rate in the 1930s = 1:1, 1960s =3:1, 1978 = 5:1

    10. Southeast Michigan Population The next series of slides show real population change over time. Please note that there are projections to 2020. This slide shows population data for Livingston, Macomb, Wayne, and St. Clair Counties. One would assume that Wayne county loses population to the other counties. Wayne County loses population and Macomb County appears to be plateauing. While it appears that there is only modest growth in St. Clair and Livingston Counties. A closer look reveals otherwise. The next series of slides show real population change over time. Please note that there are projections to 2020. This slide shows population data for Livingston, Macomb, Wayne, and St. Clair Counties. One would assume that Wayne county loses population to the other counties. Wayne County loses population and Macomb County appears to be plateauing. While it appears that there is only modest growth in St. Clair and Livingston Counties. A closer look reveals otherwise.

    11. Southeast Michigan Population: Livingston & St. Clair counties What we had was a problem of scale. By taking Wayne and Macomb Counties out of the picture, we see that these 2 counties are experiencing rapid growths in population numbers. These two counties are experiencing growth in a manner that is reminiscent of Wayne and Macomb Counties in the 1950s. Livingston is the fastest growing county in terms of population in Michigan.What we had was a problem of scale. By taking Wayne and Macomb Counties out of the picture, we see that these 2 counties are experiencing rapid growths in population numbers. These two counties are experiencing growth in a manner that is reminiscent of Wayne and Macomb Counties in the 1950s. Livingston is the fastest growing county in terms of population in Michigan.

    12. West Michigan Population In West Michigan, Allegan, Kalamazoo, and Muskegon Counties are all plateauing, while Kent and Ottawa Counties are fast growing. Interestingly, Ottawa County is the 2nd fastest growing county in population in Michigan and is the top rated county in farm product value. In West Michigan, Allegan, Kalamazoo, and Muskegon Counties are all plateauing, while Kent and Ottawa Counties are fast growing. Interestingly, Ottawa County is the 2nd fastest growing county in population in Michigan and is the top rated county in farm product value.

    13. Northern Lower Michigan Population In other parts of Michigan similar trends are occurring. Leelanau County population is skyrocketing, while Grand Traverse population and Clare slightly plateauing.In other parts of Michigan similar trends are occurring. Leelanau County population is skyrocketing, while Grand Traverse population and Clare slightly plateauing.

    14. This chart compares the central, core cities to their larger Metropolitan Statistical Area in terms of percent of population change between 1990 & 2000. MSAs are conglomerations of population that are based on counties, typically surrounding an urban area. The Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids MSAs are the only ones that gain in population. All others are experiencing the typical sprawl symptom of hollowing out of the core cities in terms of population.This chart compares the central, core cities to their larger Metropolitan Statistical Area in terms of percent of population change between 1990 & 2000. MSAs are conglomerations of population that are based on counties, typically surrounding an urban area. The Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids MSAs are the only ones that gain in population. All others are experiencing the typical sprawl symptom of hollowing out of the core cities in terms of population.

    18. This slide and the next show the 8:1 elasticity ratio I spoke about earlier. This phenomenon epitomizes the problem of sprawl, which is our population growth is not commensurate with our land consumption rates and illustrates further why we needed to use the 8:1 rate. The larger disparity between the bars, the more severe the sprawl. Again, we are comparing MSA areas, not central core cities.This slide and the next show the 8:1 elasticity ratio I spoke about earlier. This phenomenon epitomizes the problem of sprawl, which is our population growth is not commensurate with our land consumption rates and illustrates further why we needed to use the 8:1 rate. The larger disparity between the bars, the more severe the sprawl. Again, we are comparing MSA areas, not central core cities.

    19. Land to Population Growth Ratios 1960-1990 From 1990-2000, 17 counties had a population increase of 3% and a land increase of 25% which is where the 8:1 ratio is born. It is reinforced by looking at the average of Michigan cities. Again, we are comparing MSA areas, not central core cities. From 1990-2000, 17 counties had a population increase of 3% and a land increase of 25% which is where the 8:1 ratio is born. It is reinforced by looking at the average of Michigan cities. Again, we are comparing MSA areas, not central core cities.

    20. Economic Impact The map of land use projections used in economic analyses to evaluate the impact on each of these major land-based industries: Agriculture Forestry Mining Tourism Evaluated both the loss of land and the fragmentation of the landscape Related these factors to productivity and economic changes within the targeted industries. Why the Michigan Land Resource Project is Important The land-based industries of agriculture, forestry, tourism and recreation, and mining account for almost $63 billion (29 percent) of Michigans economic output: Agriculture contributes for $15 billion directly to Michigans economy and an additional $22 billion indirectly through support and related services. Tourism accounts for 350,000 jobs and $12 billion. Forestry provides 150,000 jobs to Michigan citizens and $9 billion to its economy. Twenty-one minerals are mined here in Michigan and the non-fuel sector of the industry provides 9,000 jobs and $1.6 billion to the economy. Oil and gas provide 11,500 jobs and $600 million to Michigans economy. The land-based industries contribute immensely to the character of Michigans landscape. The land-based industries supply many products that sustain our quality of life. Why the Michigan Land Resource Project is Important The land-based industries of agriculture, forestry, tourism and recreation, and mining account for almost $63 billion (29 percent) of Michigans economic output: Agriculture contributes for $15 billion directly to Michigans economy and an additional $22 billion indirectly through support and related services. Tourism accounts for 350,000 jobs and $12 billion. Forestry provides 150,000 jobs to Michigan citizens and $9 billion to its economy. Twenty-one minerals are mined here in Michigan and the non-fuel sector of the industry provides 9,000 jobs and $1.6 billion to the economy. Oil and gas provide 11,500 jobs and $600 million to Michigans economy. The land-based industries contribute immensely to the character of Michigans landscape. The land-based industries supply many products that sustain our quality of life.

    21. This is the land use map for 1980, which is based on real data. No update since 1980 is available statewide. If there is one policy recommendation we make out of this study, it is that there must be comprehensive, regular, and uniform land use updates on a statewide basis. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look. This is the land use map for 1980, which is based on real data. No update since 1980 is available statewide. If there is one policy recommendation we make out of this study, it is that there must be comprehensive, regular, and uniform land use updates on a statewide basis. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look.

    22. Note the development occurring along the transportation corridors. We hypothesize that the other vegetation or open space class is land slated for urban development that will be converted from forest or agriculture, purchased by speculators, and left idle until sewage and water amenities are available. This land (other vegetation class) will then transition into the built class. Note the development occurring along the transportation corridors. We hypothesize that the other vegetation or open space class is land slated for urban development that will be converted from forest or agriculture, purchased by speculators, and left idle until sewage and water amenities are available. This land (other vegetation class) will then transition into the built class.

    24. Results: Future Trends What those maps graphically show are the results presented here. The bottom line is: Ag = -17 = may be conservative, there are other methods of projecting that produce higher losses, but the bottom line is that almost 2 million acres will be lost. Built= +178 Forest = -8 = only private forestland. The model assumes that public land will remain public and undeveloped Other Vegetation/Open Space = -24 Wetlands = -10 These figures dont include the impact of fragmentation on loss of land classes.What those maps graphically show are the results presented here. The bottom line is: Ag = -17 = may be conservative, there are other methods of projecting that produce higher losses, but the bottom line is that almost 2 million acres will be lost. Built= +178 Forest = -8 = only private forestland. The model assumes that public land will remain public and undeveloped Other Vegetation/Open Space = -24 Wetlands = -10 These figures dont include the impact of fragmentation on loss of land classes.

    25. Built 1980 This next series of slides show only the built land use category from 1980 to 2040. In the next three slides, the built category is in yellow here and all other land use classes are green. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look. This next series of slides show only the built land use category from 1980 to 2040. In the next three slides, the built category is in yellow here and all other land use classes are green. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look.

    26. Built 2020

    27. Built 2040 You can see expansion of the built category expanding tremendously around our urban areas and connectedness between urban patches along major transportation corridors.You can see expansion of the built category expanding tremendously around our urban areas and connectedness between urban patches along major transportation corridors.

    28. New Built Area (+178%): 1980-2040 This slide shows the amount of land (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 178% increases will occur. This is where the NEW developed land will be.This slide shows the amount of land (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 178% increases will occur. This is where the NEW developed land will be.

    29. Agriculture 1980 The next three series of slides show the same analyses for agriculture. Here agriculture is represented as yellow, while all other land uses are in green. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrows to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look. The next three series of slides show the same analyses for agriculture. Here agriculture is represented as yellow, while all other land uses are in green. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrows to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look.

    30. Agriculture 2020

    31. Agriculture 2040

    32. Lost Ag. Land (-17%): 1980 - 2040 This slide shows the amount of agricultural land (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 17% decreases will occur. Note again that Ottawa County is the highest farm product value county and the 2nd fastest growing in terms of population in Michigan. This slide shows the amount of agricultural land (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 17% decreases will occur. Note again that Ottawa County is the highest farm product value county and the 2nd fastest growing in terms of population in Michigan.

    33. Forest 1980 The next three series of slides show the same analyses for forests. Here, forest land type is green and all other land uses are yellow. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrows to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look. The next three series of slides show the same analyses for forests. Here, forest land type is green and all other land uses are yellow. Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrows to move quickly between this and the next slides to show a time lapse look.

    34. Forest 2020 With 7.5 million acres of this forested area in public ownership, the fragmentation and loss of land from sprawl will be intense on the remaining land. While the forestry maps do not appear frightening, given the context, there certainly is cause for pause.With 7.5 million acres of this forested area in public ownership, the fragmentation and loss of land from sprawl will be intense on the remaining land. While the forestry maps do not appear frightening, given the context, there certainly is cause for pause.

    35. Forest 2040

    36. Lost Forestland (-8%): 1980-2040 This slide shows the amount of forested land, including farm woodlands (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 8% decreases will occur. It should be noted that this is private land only. The model assumes that all public land will remain public and undeveloped. Therefore the pressure on forestland will be more intense than is represented. This slide shows the amount of forested land, including farm woodlands (in red) that converted to built during 1980 to 2040 and represents where the 8% decreases will occur. It should be noted that this is private land only. The model assumes that all public land will remain public and undeveloped. Therefore the pressure on forestland will be more intense than is represented.

    37. Land Use from 1980-2040 in Southeast Michigan This time series shows land use in SE Michigan. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color. The next slides are a zoomed-in look.This time series shows land use in SE Michigan. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color. The next slides are a zoomed-in look.

    38. Southeast Michigan Region 1980 Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slide to show a time lapse look.Presenter note: toggle between the up and down arrow keys to move quickly between this and the next slide to show a time lapse look.

    39. Southeast Michigan Region 2040 Note the development along transportation corridors. This makes a strong case for the need for mass transit.Note the development along transportation corridors. This makes a strong case for the need for mass transit.

    40. Land Use from 1980-2040 Southwest Michigan This time series shows land use in SW Michigan. Here are the built and forest classes of land use for the three snapshots in time. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color.This time series shows land use in SW Michigan. Here are the built and forest classes of land use for the three snapshots in time. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color.

    41. Land Use from 1980-2040 Northwest Lower Michigan This time series shows land use in NW Lower Michigan. Here are the built and forest classes of land use for the three snapshots in time. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color. Note the shoreline development.This time series shows land use in NW Lower Michigan. Here are the built and forest classes of land use for the three snapshots in time. Here the built land use class is in red, forest in green, water in blue, and all others in the grayish color. Note the shoreline development.

    42. General Impacts on All Industries Conflicts between neighbors and industries will likely increase. Distances between support industries and businesses will increase and transportation costs will rise, potentially cutting profits. Most of the assets of the land-based industries are in the land. They will be easily priced out of the area, while development fragments land once dedicated to those activities. Loss of open space that the land-based industries provide for our quality of life, rural landscape, and wildlife habitat. n As now-rural areas become more populated, we can reasonably expect further confrontations from residents who are unfamiliar with the individuals and companies who gain their livelihood from the land, or with industry practices and procedures (e.g. cutting of forestland, manure spreading on agricultural fields, excavation of minerals, trucking associated with these industries). There will also be growing societal intolerance for participation in some natural resource-based recreation. n Growing distances between supporting industries and businesses make it more difficult to conduct business efficiently. Transportation and production costs are a major economic factor for these industries. If those costs increase, the profitability of the industry declines. From an economic perspective, an important analysis will be to determine the smallest, industry size viable for production. This would depend upon the value of the commodity being produced and might suggest that as fragmentation increases, shifts in the type of commodity produced should change to maintain economic viability. This is supported, at least, by the census of farms and farm size. The number of farms in Michigan is projected to decline by 57% from 2000 to 2040. Dramatic reductions will be noted in farms of 50 to 500 acres, while farms over 1,000 acres will increase significantly. For example, farmers may need to travel equipment farther between their own farms to do business. In the mining industry, hauling construction materials more than 40 miles becomes uneconomical. n Most of the assets of the land-based industries are not in products or facilities, but in the land. While the value of products may fluctuate, the value of the land for its development potential is steadily increasing in both absolute and real terms. Much of that development potential relates to opportunities to live in or near natural resources. We are experiencing a phenomenon where agriculture, forestry, and mining are unable to compete with the value of the land and therefore get priced out of the area, while development fragments land once dedicated to those activities.n As now-rural areas become more populated, we can reasonably expect further confrontations from residents who are unfamiliar with the individuals and companies who gain their livelihood from the land, or with industry practices and procedures (e.g. cutting of forestland, manure spreading on agricultural fields, excavation of minerals, trucking associated with these industries). There will also be growing societal intolerance for participation in some natural resource-based recreation. n Growing distances between supporting industries and businesses make it more difficult to conduct business efficiently. Transportation and production costs are a major economic factor for these industries. If those costs increase, the profitability of the industry declines. From an economic perspective, an important analysis will be to determine the smallest, industry size viable for production. This would depend upon the value of the commodity being produced and might suggest that as fragmentation increases, shifts in the type of commodity produced should change to maintain economic viability. This is supported, at least, by the census of farms and farm size. The number of farms in Michigan is projected to decline by 57% from 2000 to 2040. Dramatic reductions will be noted in farms of 50 to 500 acres, while farms over 1,000 acres will increase significantly. For example, farmers may need to travel equipment farther between their own farms to do business. In the mining industry, hauling construction materials more than 40 miles becomes uneconomical. n Most of the assets of the land-based industries are not in products or facilities, but in the land. While the value of products may fluctuate, the value of the land for its development potential is steadily increasing in both absolute and real terms. Much of that development potential relates to opportunities to live in or near natural resources. We are experiencing a phenomenon where agriculture, forestry, and mining are unable to compete with the value of the land and therefore get priced out of the area, while development fragments land once dedicated to those activities.

    43. Land Conversion One aspect of the current development trends that does not appear on the maps is the concept of fragmentation. Equally devastating to the land-based industries and wildlife as the amount of land we are consuming is how we are using the land. Increasingly, smaller lots are being parceled off of larger ones. The land-based industries require large lots for production. Smaller lots mean potentially more neighbors that dont like industry practices, less potential land for expanding industries, and less profit. This and the next slide are a graphic representation of what happens to the land when it is divided.One aspect of the current development trends that does not appear on the maps is the concept of fragmentation. Equally devastating to the land-based industries and wildlife as the amount of land we are consuming is how we are using the land. Increasingly, smaller lots are being parceled off of larger ones. The land-based industries require large lots for production. Smaller lots mean potentially more neighbors that dont like industry practices, less potential land for expanding industries, and less profit. This and the next slide are a graphic representation of what happens to the land when it is divided.

    44. Fragmentation Wildlife depend on available, undeveloped land for transportation routes or corridors. Fragmentation creates islands of habitat for animals who have a difficult time traveling to their normal habitats. The bottom line is that our built areas will coalesce in a manner typical of sprawl, while our forest, agriculture, and open space land will become increasingly more broken up or fragmented.Wildlife depend on available, undeveloped land for transportation routes or corridors. Fragmentation creates islands of habitat for animals who have a difficult time traveling to their normal habitats. The bottom line is that our built areas will coalesce in a manner typical of sprawl, while our forest, agriculture, and open space land will become increasingly more broken up or fragmented.

    45. Economic Impacts: Agriculture Michigan will lose 15% of its farmland by 2040, with about a 25% loss in metropolitan areas. Agricultural diversity will diminish as the land in fruit declines by 25%, dry beans by 36%, potatoes by 16%, and vegetables by 13%; acreage in major field crops will remain about the same. The 40% of farmland in uses such as hay, pasture, woodland and idle, will drop by a third. Production will increase on most crops as rising yields per acre offset falling acreages, if, as assumed, the potential of biotechnology is realized. Dairying will remain viable even with a 25% decline in cow numbers, but all livestock sectors will need to adjust to meet environmental standards. Expansion of last bullet: The close interface between agriculture and urban areas has a positive influence on farm households but presents challenges for farmers to control nuisance factors, especially odor from livestock operations. This problem is intensified with urban sprawl. For the livestock industries to remain viable in Michigan, major adjustments will be needed to comply with environmental and nuisance restrictions. With rapid structural change, conversion to larger units, and with new technology, remaining producers will be more capable in making this adjustment. If not, production will shift to less populated areas in other states. Other conclusions from the paper are: As the Number 2 industry in the state, agriculture (including food processing) provides needed stability to the states economy and aesthetics associated with open spaces. The number of farms in Michigan is projected to decline from 42,000 in 2000 to about 24,000 by 2040. The number of very small farms will not change much, but dramatic reductions will be noted in farms of 50 to 500 acres. Farms over 1,000 acres will increase significantly. The output of Michigan agriculture will continue to increase as farmers extract more product from less land and less labor. A major dilemma is how to prevent conversion of farmland without diminishing farm equities. In the 1990s, the annual gain in farm real estate values was 65 percent greater than the average annual net farm income. Pressures for farmers to sell to non-farm buyers is illustrated by appraisers evaluation of farmland in the Southern Lower Peninsula in 2000: $1,839 per acre for farming, $7,423 per acre for residential, $19,495 per acre for commercial/industrial use, and $2,739 per acre for recreation. Expansion of last bullet: The close interface between agriculture and urban areas has a positive influence on farm households but presents challenges for farmers to control nuisance factors, especially odor from livestock operations. This problem is intensified with urban sprawl. For the livestock industries to remain viable in Michigan, major adjustments will be needed to comply with environmental and nuisance restrictions. With rapid structural change, conversion to larger units, and with new technology, remaining producers will be more capable in making this adjustment. If not, production will shift to less populated areas in other states. Other conclusions from the paper are: As the Number 2 industry in the state, agriculture (including food processing) provides needed stability to the states economy and aesthetics associated with open spaces. The number of farms in Michigan is projected to decline from 42,000 in 2000 to about 24,000 by 2040. The number of very small farms will not change much, but dramatic reductions will be noted in farms of 50 to 500 acres. Farms over 1,000 acres will increase significantly. The output of Michigan agriculture will continue to increase as farmers extract more product from less land and less labor. A major dilemma is how to prevent conversion of farmland without diminishing farm equities. In the 1990s, the annual gain in farm real estate values was 65 percent greater than the average annual net farm income. Pressures for farmers to sell to non-farm buyers is illustrated by appraisers evaluation of farmland in the Southern Lower Peninsula in 2000: $1,839 per acre for farming, $7,423 per acre for residential, $19,495 per acre for commercial/industrial use, and $2,739 per acre for recreation.

    46. Economic Impacts: Forestry Trees may increase on abandoned land, but net forestland loss will approach 10%, with greatest losses in southern lower Michigan by up to 25%. Forest lands will be increasingly fragmented into smaller, less manageable, and less economically viable blocks. Increased built area will force forest managers to alter management practices, restricting harvest frequencies and adding to production costs. Both wildfire danger to homes and local opposition to forestry and mill operations will likely increase as development moves into rural areas, especially in the northern Lower Peninsula. The primary effect of development on forestland in the future is fragmentation. As land is divided and sold, contiguous, large tracts of land become small parcels of many owners, who are not likely to manage a forest for harvesting. In order to keep harvesting costs down, access to large parcels is necessary. As the land becomes more fragmented, the price for harvesting Michigans timber will increase. The primary effect of development on forestland in the future is fragmentation. As land is divided and sold, contiguous, large tracts of land become small parcels of many owners, who are not likely to manage a forest for harvesting. In order to keep harvesting costs down, access to large parcels is necessary. As the land becomes more fragmented, the price for harvesting Michigans timber will increase.

    47. Economic Impacts: Mining Building and construction costs will rise as transportation of materials, such as sand, gravel, and stone, occurs over longer distances when local deposits are urbanized. Growth in the built area and land fragmentation will change ownership patterns and mineral rights, making future oil and gas exploration and recovery difficult and costly. Growth in the built area is increasingly co-located with existing clay, gypsum and other materials deposits, creating land use conflicts and increased production costs. Accessibility to land for mineral exploration, development, and production is a principle factor that is directly and negatively impacted by urbanization, sprawl, and land fragmentation. Expansion of 1st bullet. There is a clear link between urbanization and the production of sand and gravel and crushed stone. Their production is dependent on local economic patterns and therefore should be highly influenced by urbanization and local land use patterns. Construction materials cannot be economically transported more than about 40 miles. Increased urbanization and development will clearly create additional need for these building materials, but these industries are not welcome in urban, suburban, or resort areas. In a sense, these industries will build themselves out of business, as they are closed down or squeezed out of developed areas. Expansion of 2nd bullet. Conflicts with surface owners for oil and gas drilling add to the costs and difficulty of exploring for, developing, and producing oil and gas. Increased urbanization and land fragmentation will make it more difficult and costly for the industry to continue. Expansion of 4th bullet. Existing extraction sites come under pressure as urbanization occurs around them and their neighbors engage in increasing conflict with them over their operations and access. There is an even stronger impact on siting new mineral extraction operations. Potential mineral producers must compete against other land uses that are often perceived as having higher direct value to the local community and, accordingly, higher political value. Other conclusions from the paper are: Pressure on the ability to produce local minerals will certainly affect the states economy. These minerals will become more expensive if they must be shipped from farther away. This expense will raise the cost of building and construction activities as well as other industrial production, making for less profit and less competitive industries. Peat production is likely to be sensitive to land fragmentation and especially to perceptions about the environmental effects of its production. This is a problem since peat-producing counties are forecasted to have greater urbanization growth than the state average. Expansion of 1st bullet. There is a clear link between urbanization and the production of sand and gravel and crushed stone. Their production is dependent on local economic patterns and therefore should be highly influenced by urbanization and local land use patterns. Construction materials cannot be economically transported more than about 40 miles. Increased urbanization and development will clearly create additional need for these building materials, but these industries are not welcome in urban, suburban, or resort areas. In a sense, these industries will build themselves out of business, as they are closed down or squeezed out of developed areas. Expansion of 2nd bullet. Conflicts with surface owners for oil and gas drilling add to the costs and difficulty of exploring for, developing, and producing oil and gas. Increased urbanization and land fragmentation will make it more difficult and costly for the industry to continue. Expansion of 4th bullet. Existing extraction sites come under pressure as urbanization occurs around them and their neighbors engage in increasing conflict with them over their operations and access. There is an even stronger impact on siting new mineral extraction operations. Potential mineral producers must compete against other land uses that are often perceived as having higher direct value to the local community and, accordingly, higher political value. Other conclusions from the paper are: Pressure on the ability to produce local minerals will certainly affect the states economy. These minerals will become more expensive if they must be shipped from farther away. This expense will raise the cost of building and construction activities as well as other industrial production, making for less profit and less competitive industries. Peat production is likely to be sensitive to land fragmentation and especially to perceptions about the environmental effects of its production. This is a problem since peat-producing counties are forecasted to have greater urbanization growth than the state average.

    48. Economic Impacts: Tourism & Recreation Built area increases along transportation corridors will reduce the aesthetic appeal and draw of Michigans destination resorts and recreation areas. Small changes can have big impacts. Land use change and landscape fragmentation will reduce wildlife corridors and recreational trails. The tendency for land use change adjacent to lakeshores and streams will reduce water quality and habitat and create a decline in inland lake and cold-water fisheries. Land owner conflicts and safety zone requirements will impact and restrict access to recreational uses of huntable lands. Each 30x30 structure creates a 16 acre safety zone around it. Expansion of 1st bullet. As people move to destination resort areas to take advantage of the amenities and views, those areas may lose the character and quality that defined them as a destination. It is often reported that the journey to the destination resort is an important element of the entire trip. A few houses or one poorly-located commercial development along a rural road can significantly alter its aesthetic appeal. Expansion of 2nd bullet. Michigan has approximately 6,000 miles of snowmobile trails. Approximately half of those trails are on private lands with voluntary landowner permission formalized by short-term lease arrangements. The trail system is only continuous if every landowner leases his/her property. As land fragmentation increases, more and more easements are needed to connect trails. For motorized trail activities, breaks in trails due to non-renewed leases will be the legacy of fragmentation. Expansion of 3rd bullet. The amount of impervious surfaces, introduction of pollutants to waterways, rise and fall of floodwaters, and changes in water chemistry all damage aquatic environments and can reduce fish populations of desired species and species diversity. Cold water species are especially vulnerable to changes in environmental quality, such as increases in temperature and pollutants and decreases in dissolved oxygen levelsall of which are exacerbated by sprawl. Homes with poorly engineered septic systems constructed along northern Michigan streams coupled with the replacement of native vegetation with fertilized lawns can spark rapid deterioration of blue-ribbon trout waters. Expansion of 4th bullet. The great challenge for hunters will be finding huntable lands and gaining access. Opportunities for hunting will shift away from the countryside near major population centers as new neighbors arrive and safety zones are created. With a safety zone of 450 feet from a structure off limits to hunting without landowner permission, this means that every 30 x 30 foot structure constructed removes 15.6 acres of land for hunting. Other conclusions from the paper are: The importance of natural resource-based recreation and tourism to the quality of life in Michigan dwarfs its economic contributions. The golf industry will continue to expand, often becoming the last open space in many communities outside of public parks. Expansion of 1st bullet. As people move to destination resort areas to take advantage of the amenities and views, those areas may lose the character and quality that defined them as a destination. It is often reported that the journey to the destination resort is an important element of the entire trip. A few houses or one poorly-located commercial development along a rural road can significantly alter its aesthetic appeal. Expansion of 2nd bullet. Michigan has approximately 6,000 miles of snowmobile trails. Approximately half of those trails are on private lands with voluntary landowner permission formalized by short-term lease arrangements. The trail system is only continuous if every landowner leases his/her property. As land fragmentation increases, more and more easements are needed to connect trails. For motorized trail activities, breaks in trails due to non-renewed leases will be the legacy of fragmentation. Expansion of 3rd bullet. The amount of impervious surfaces, introduction of pollutants to waterways, rise and fall of floodwaters, and changes in water chemistry all damage aquatic environments and can reduce fish populations of desired species and species diversity. Cold water species are especially vulnerable to changes in environmental quality, such as increases in temperature and pollutants and decreases in dissolved oxygen levelsall of which are exacerbated by sprawl. Homes with poorly engineered septic systems constructed along northern Michigan streams coupled with the replacement of native vegetation with fertilized lawns can spark rapid deterioration of blue-ribbon trout waters. Expansion of 4th bullet. The great challenge for hunters will be finding huntable lands and gaining access. Opportunities for hunting will shift away from the countryside near major population centers as new neighbors arrive and safety zones are created. With a safety zone of 450 feet from a structure off limits to hunting without landowner permission, this means that every 30 x 30 foot structure constructed removes 15.6 acres of land for hunting. Other conclusions from the paper are: The importance of natural resource-based recreation and tourism to the quality of life in Michigan dwarfs its economic contributions. The golf industry will continue to expand, often becoming the last open space in many communities outside of public parks.

    49. Land Use Fragmentation So, if we look at fragmentation as a continuum over time and we plot increasingly urban counties on it, this is what it looks like. While this outlines Agriculture, this graph can be made for any industry along the Y-axis. What this shows us is that Wayne County is primarily urban, while Shiawassee is not. Livingston and Oakland Counties are on their way to being urban counties. Its all about choices and whether or not this is the path that these counties want to go down. The counties on the left side of the graph can still make a decision about their future. Does Shiawassee County value farmland enough to protect it into the future? Does Oakland County want to fill in its gaps and become a predominantly urban county? What we want to emphasize here is that we can still make choices about our futures and that we need to make conscious decisions about where we collectively want to go. So, if we look at fragmentation as a continuum over time and we plot increasingly urban counties on it, this is what it looks like. While this outlines Agriculture, this graph can be made for any industry along the Y-axis. What this shows us is that Wayne County is primarily urban, while Shiawassee is not. Livingston and Oakland Counties are on their way to being urban counties. Its all about choices and whether or not this is the path that these counties want to go down. The counties on the left side of the graph can still make a decision about their future. Does Shiawassee County value farmland enough to protect it into the future? Does Oakland County want to fill in its gaps and become a predominantly urban county? What we want to emphasize here is that we can still make choices about our futures and that we need to make conscious decisions about where we collectively want to go.

    50. The 37 million acres that are Michigan is all the Michigan we will ever have - Michigan Governor William Milliken Land is a finite resource and we have the ability and opportunity to make choices about our economic future and the way Michigan looks in the future. A litany of studies has been produced and debate has been extensive on the topic of land development and use. It is time to make decisions about Michigans future: either stay the course or make changes. If we collectively decide that the land-based industries indeed contribute mightily to Michigans economy and scenic landscape, then it is time to move on toward solutions. This document offers the background needed to make policy and regulatory changes. The next step is to identify alternatives to the status quo and begin implementing them. Are you satisfied with the trends presented? Do you want a better future for Michigan? What do you think are important follow-up actions that are needed given this information? What message do you want to convey to your elected officials? Do you think we need to alter our resource-development practices? What public policy choices can we make to change or enhance our future? What land use tools can we employ to promote better planning of our resources? There is still time to change our course if you an unsatisfied with our present one. Its never to late to lay out your future.Land is a finite resource and we have the ability and opportunity to make choices about our economic future and the way Michigan looks in the future. A litany of studies has been produced and debate has been extensive on the topic of land development and use. It is time to make decisions about Michigans future: either stay the course or make changes. If we collectively decide that the land-based industries indeed contribute mightily to Michigans economy and scenic landscape, then it is time to move on toward solutions. This document offers the background needed to make policy and regulatory changes. The next step is to identify alternatives to the status quo and begin implementing them. Are you satisfied with the trends presented? Do you want a better future for Michigan? What do you think are important follow-up actions that are needed given this information? What message do you want to convey to your elected officials? Do you think we need to alter our resource-development practices? What public policy choices can we make to change or enhance our future? What land use tools can we employ to promote better planning of our resources? There is still time to change our course if you an unsatisfied with our present one. Its never to late to lay out your future.

    51. View and download the report at: www.peopleandland.org

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