1 / 18

MOS

MOS. What does acronym stand for ? MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS What is the difference between the NGM and NGM MOS ?. NGM MOS. BUF EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 9/26/01 1200 UTC DAY /SEPT 26 /SEPT 27 /SEPT 28 /

lori
Télécharger la présentation

MOS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. MOS • What does acronym stand for ? • MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS • What is the difference between the NGM and NGM MOS ?

  2. NGM MOS • BUF EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 9/26/01 1200 UTC • DAY /SEPT 26 /SEPT 27 /SEPT 28 / • HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 • MN/MX 44 54 45 59 • TEMP 51 52 49 48 47 46 46 51 52 51 49 48 48 48 48 53 57 56 53 • DEWPT 40 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44 45 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 44 • CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC • WDIR 22 23 25 24 26 28 25 27 27 26 25 28 30 33 36 02 36 35 30 • WSPD 16 13 09 07 07 07 07 08 09 10 09 08 05 05 06 06 07 08 07 • POP06 70 61 61 72 60 55 47 23 24 • POP12 82 79 64 35 • QPF 1/ 1/ 1/1 2/ 1/2 1/ 1/1 0/ 0/0 • TSV06 10/ 0 7/ 0 9/ 0 3/ 1 26/ 0 21/ 0 10/ 0 10/ 0 9/ 0 • TSV12 14/ 0 9/ 1 33/ 0 16/ 0 • PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R • POZP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • POSN 0 0 0 1 5 9 2 2 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 • SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 • CIG 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 • VIS 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 • OBVIS N N N N N F F N N N F N N

  3. NGM MODEL • Station: BUF Lat: 42.93 Lon: -78.73 Elev: 217 Closest grid pt: 13.5 km. • Initialization Time: 01-09-26 1200 UTC • PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 • ----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ • DAY / HOUR 26/12 26/18 27/00 27/06 27/12 27/18 28/00 28/06 28/12 • ----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ • TEMPS • 1000 MB (C) 7 12 13 11 9 12 14 15 13 • 950 MB (C) 4 9 10 8 6 9 11 12 10 • 900 MB (C) 1 4 6 4 3 4 6 7 7 • 850 MB (C) -2 0 1 0 -1 1 2 3 3 • 800 MB (C) -9 -10 -9 -10 -11 -12 -10 -8 -6 • 1000-500 THCK 5405 5418 5419 5404 5381 5386 5411 5439 5459 • MOISTURE • 1000 MB DP(C)/RH 6/93 4/59 5/57 6/75 9/95 7/73 7/63 7/60 8/68 • 850 MB DP(C)/RH -3/92 -1/91 0/91 0/97 -1/97 0/97 1/93 1/89 2/91 • 700 MB DP(C)/RH-10/93 -10/98 -10/97 -11/95 -12/90 -12/97 -11/94 -10/82 -9/78 • 500 MB DP(C)/RH-22/76 -25/64 -28/60 -24/77 -24/92 -24/99 -25/94 -24/86 -26/61 • PRCPABLE WTR (I 0.64 0.59 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.64 0.68 0.68 0.69 • CONV PRECIP (IN 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 • TOTAL PRECIP (I 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 • WIND DD/FFF (Kts) • 1000 MB 21/014 21/009 26/011 30/009 30/009 28/007 30/008 36/011 01/016 • 850 MB 23/025 23/021 25/017 28/011 30/011 31/013 32/011 36/014 01/017 • 700 MB 23/036 24/029 25/028 26/022 29/013 34/017 35/020 01/024 02/026 • 500 MB 22/049 23/045 25/039 25/034 27/021 33/016 00/027 02/038 03/044 • 250 MB 22/050 23/054 23/048 24/044 25/027 29/011 00/026 02/039 03/050

  4. MOS • NGM = Dynamical Model • Seven fundamental equations ! • NGM MOS = Statistical Model • No seven fundamental equations ! • Equations are statistical, not dynamical !

  5. MOS • Why even have MOS ? • Predicts parameters that dynamical models don’t • Visibility • Cloud ceilings • Predicts some parameters better than models (averaged over all cases) • Surface temperature • Surface wind • Surface dewpoint

  6. MOS • How does MOS make its predictions? • Uses technique of association • Objectively relates (associates) model output to observed weather using statistical technique of linear regression

  7. MOS • Two steps to MOS ………. • Equation Development • Equation Application

  8. MOS • Equation Development ->> • PREDICTOR • Variable that is doing the PREDICTING • PREDICTAND • Variable that is getting PREDICTED • Linear Regression • Relates PREDICTOR to PREDICTAND

  9. MOS: Equation Development Y1 = mx1 + b1

  10. MOS: Temperature • Predictors • Model low level temps (i.e. 850mb) • Model relative humidity • Accounts for clouds • Model wind direction /speed • Climatology • Previous days min (max) • Single site development

  11. MOS: Precipitation • Predictors • Model mean relative humidity (i.e. 1000-500mb layer average) • Precipitation output of model • Model vertical velocity (i.e. 700, 500, 850mb) • Model low level wind direction (i.e. 10m) • Regional development

  12. MOS: Wind • Predictors • Low level wind direction/speed output of model (i.e. 10m, 850mb wind) • Single site development

  13. MOS Characteristics • Requires large sample size • Several years of model output • Increases statistical significance

  14. MOS • Partially removes systematic model errors (i.e. biases) • If model has a cool bias at 850mb, MOS will account for/remove model bias • Works best when models are not tweaked (i.e. no change to physics)

  15. MOS: Equation Application

  16. NGM MODEL • Station: BUF Lat: 42.93 Lon: -78.73 Elev: 217 Closest grid pt: 13.5 km. • Initialization Time: 01-09-26 1200 UTC • PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 • ----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ • DAY / HOUR 26/12 26/18 27/00 27/06 27/12 27/18 28/00 28/06 28/12 • ----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ • TEMPS • 1000 MB (C) 7 12 13 11 9 12 14 15 13 • 950 MB (C) 4 9 10 8 6 9 11 12 10 • 900 MB (C) 1 4 6 4 3 4 6 7 7 • 850 MB (C) -2 0 1 0 -1 1 2 3 3 • 800 MB (C) -9 -10 -9 -10 -11 -12 -10 -8 -6 • 1000-500 THCK 5405 5418 5419 5404 5381 5386 5411 5439 5459 • MOISTURE • 1000 MB DP(C)/RH 6/93 4/59 5/57 6/75 9/95 7/73 7/63 7/60 8/68 • 850 MB DP(C)/RH -3/92 -1/91 0/91 0/97 -1/97 0/97 1/93 1/89 2/91 • 700 MB DP(C)/RH-10/93 -10/98 -10/97 -11/95 -12/90 -12/97 -11/94 -10/82 -9/78 • 500 MB DP(C)/RH-22/76 -25/64 -28/60 -24/77 -24/92 -24/99 -25/94 -24/86 -26/61 • PRCPABLE WTR (I 0.64 0.59 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.64 0.68 0.68 0.69 • CONV PRECIP (IN 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 • TOTAL PRECIP (I 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 • WIND DD/FFF (Kts) • 1000 MB 21/014 21/009 26/011 30/009 30/009 28/007 30/008 36/011 01/016 • 850 MB 23/025 23/021 25/017 28/011 30/011 31/013 32/011 36/014 01/017 • 700 MB 23/036 24/029 25/028 26/022 29/013 34/017 35/020 01/024 02/026 • 500 MB 22/049 23/045 25/039 25/034 27/021 33/016 00/027 02/038 03/044 • 250 MB 22/050 23/054 23/048 24/044 25/027 29/011 00/026 02/039 03/050

  17. NGM MOS • BUF EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 9/26/01 1200 UTC • DAY /SEPT 26 /SEPT 27 /SEPT 28 / • HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 • MN/MX 44 54 45 59 • TEMP 51 52 49 48 47 46 46 51 52 51 49 48 48 48 48 53 57 56 53 • DEWPT 40 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44 45 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 44 • CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC • WDIR 22 23 25 24 26 28 25 27 27 26 25 28 30 33 36 02 36 35 30 • WSPD 16 13 09 07 07 07 07 08 09 10 09 08 05 05 06 06 07 08 07 • POP06 70 61 61 72 60 55 47 23 24 • POP12 82 79 64 35 • QPF 1/ 1/ 1/1 2/ 1/2 1/ 1/1 0/ 0/0 • TSV06 10/ 0 7/ 0 9/ 0 3/ 1 26/ 0 21/ 0 10/ 0 10/ 0 9/ 0 • TSV12 14/ 0 9/ 1 33/ 0 16/ 0 • PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R • POZP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • POSN 0 0 0 1 5 9 2 2 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 • SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 • CIG 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 • VIS 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 • OBVIS N N N N N F F N N N F N N

  18. MOS ERRORS: Who’s at fault? • Model’s fault • Garbage In = Garbage Out • MOS’s fault • Imperfect statistical relationships (i.e. lines of best fit are not line of prefect fit!)

More Related