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NAHB National Survey

NAHB National Survey. Key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011. Neil Newhouse. Robert Blizzard. Celinda Lake. Jonathan Voss. #11190. Methodology.

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NAHB National Survey

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  1. NAHB National Survey Key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011. Neil Newhouse Robert Blizzard Celinda Lake Jonathan Voss #11190

  2. Methodology

  3. On behalf of the National Association of Home Builders, Public Opinion Strategies and Lake Research Partners conducted a national survey of N=2,000 likely 2012 voters. The survey was conducted May 3-9, 2011 and has a margin of error of +2.19%. Due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among both homeowners and renters. Fully 73% of voters in our survey identified themselves as homeowners, which is slightly higher than recent public polls among adults. However, this is not surprising as voters tend to be a higher educated, higher income audience than the adult population. In addition, due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among key political “swing areas.” Throughout this presentation, we have broken out the data by seats held by House Republican freshmen, Charlie Cook’s Swing House & Senate seats, as well as among Washington Post Reporter Chris Cillizza’sPresidential Swing states.

  4. House GOP Freshman Seats:

  5. Cook Report House and Senate Swing Seats: U.S. House U.S. Senate

  6. Chris Cillizza’s Presidential Swing States: Swing States

  7. The Value of Home Ownership

  8. Despite the housing crisis, ups and downs in the market and the decline in the value of homes, owning a home is still very much a part of the American dream. • Even in this weak housing market that some may describe as risky, those Americans who do not currently own a home, especially those under the age of 50, overwhelmingly say they want to buy a home. • Americans consider their homes as their single best investment. • What Americans are saying is that despite the ups and downs of the housing market and the risks, home ownership is worth the risk – clear and simple.

  9. Americans believe that owning their own home is as important as being successful at their job or being able to pay for a family member’s education. %One of Most/Very Important Staying out of debt or getting out of debt. Saving enough for retirement. Being successful at your job. Owning your own home. Being able to pay for yours or a family member's education. Being able to provide your family with more than you had when you were younger.

  10. Which ONE of these would you say is your best investment? Home ownership and a retirement savings program are considered by voters to be their best investments. A home A retirement savings program like an IRA or 401 (K) A savings account Stock market investments Ownership of a business Rental property

  11. Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? An overwhelming number of Americans say owning a home is worth the ups and downs of the housing market. +52 43% Strongly 9% Strongly Agree Disagree

  12. Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? By Residence Type That sentiment is strong among renters and those who currently owe more than their home is worth. Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth +53 +64 +36 +46 +31 50% Strgly 42% Strgly 40% Strgly 39% Strgly 29% Strgly 15% Strgly 13% Strgly 13% Strgly Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Agree Agree Agree Agree Agree

  13. Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? And, there is agreement across age groups. By Age +59 +46 +50 +49 +61 50% Strgly 45% Strgly 42% Strgly 41% Strgly 41% Strgly Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Dis-agree Agree Agree Agree Agree Agree

  14. Attitudes of Homeowners

  15. Almost every homeowner is happy with their decision to own a home. How happy would you say you are with your decision to own a home? (N=1,460) Happy 83% Unhappy 17% Among Those "Under Water" 82% Very Happy Unhappy

  16. And, would you advise a member of your family or a close personal friend just starting out to buy a home in order to build long-term assets, or do you think owning a home is too risky of an investment? (N=1,460) Fully 80% of homeowners would advise a close friend or family member just starting out to buy a home. (That’s true even among those homeowners “under water” on their mortgage.) Total and Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth Yes, Would Advise to Buy Yes, Would Advise to Buy No, Too Risky No, Too Risky

  17. Attitudes of Non-Homeowners

  18. Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517) Nearly three-fourths of voters who do not currently own a home say that it is a goal of theirs to eventually buy one. +48 Yes No

  19. Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517) Younger voters (those most likely to be in the market for a home in the next few years), overwhelmingly say buying a home is a goal of theirs. By Age 18-54 83%-14% 55+ 33%-66% Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

  20. And, which one of the following would you say is your biggest barrier to buying a home? Is it... (N=376) The biggest barrier for those who want to own a home is money for a down payment and closing costs. Saving for a down payment and closing costs Job uncertainty Your credit score Inability to get a loan Your current debt Concerns that if home prices drop, your investment could be worth less than what you paid

  21. The Politics of Housing: Encouraging Home Ownership

  22. There is a consensus across party lines and among voters in all swing areas that it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership. • Voters’ message to Washington: Leave the mortgage interest deduction alone. By a two-to-one margin, voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to eliminate the MID.

  23. Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea? By Tea Party Support By Party Total Americans across party lines believe it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to encourage home ownership. Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

  24. By Ethnicity Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea? This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity. Yes No Yes No Yes No

  25. Among GOP Freshman Seats And, voters in America’s key "swing areas" also agree. Among Cook Report House Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States Among Cook Report Senate Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea? Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

  26. The Politics of Housing: Raising the Down Payment Requirement

  27. Have you seen, read or heard anything about proposals being considered in Washington regarding raising down payment requirements when purchasing a home? Few voters have heard anything about proposals to raise the down payment requirements when buying a home. -62 Yes No

  28. And, do you believe these proposed changes will make it easier or more difficult to buy a home? (N=188) But, fully 92% of those who have heard believe that will make it more difficult to buy a home. -87 38% Much More Easier More Difficult

  29. Total Opinions are divided on this issue; those most opposed tend to be Americans who would be in the market to purchase a home in the future. By Residence Type/Age Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… Requiring that home buyers put a (minimum) of twenty percent down when they purchase a home. -0- -17 +6 +16 +32 -20 +13 29% Strg 28% Strg Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp

  30. The Politics of Housing: The Mortgage Interest Deduction

  31. All proposals to change the home mortgage interest deduction are opposed by a majority of Americans. % Strongly Oppose %Total Oppose Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans. Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year. Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more. Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.

  32. Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. A strong majority of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction. Total By Party 58% Strongly 53% Strongly 52% Strongly 50% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  33. Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns. By Party And, “lowering” the mortgage interest deduction is also rejected by voters across party lines. Total 45% Strong 38% Strong 39% Strong 35% Strong 21% Strong 12% Strong 15% Strong 11% Strong Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  34. Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans. By Party Total Americans also reject eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans. 42% Strong 36% Strong 36% Strong 30% Strong 17% Strong 14% Strong 13% Strong 12% Strong Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  35. Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home. By Party Total And, a majority oppose eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home. 33% Strongly 29% Strongly 28% Strongly 27% Strongly 26% Strongly 22% Strongly 23% Strongly 17% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  36. A majority even oppose “scaling back” the home mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with large mortgages or those with higher incomes. Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more. Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year. Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one… 33% Strongly 30% Strongly 22% Strongly 19% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  37. When voters are read two opposing points of view on eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction... Now, I’d like to read you two different opinions on eliminating the mortgage interest deduction... Those who favor this proposal say that the benefits of this deduction go disproportionately to high income Americans and that eliminating it will help reduce the deficit by increasing government revenue. Opponents of this proposal say that the mortgage interest deduction helps families achieve home ownership, which helps owners build assets for the middle class and provides stability to families. …while…

  38. Do you favor or oppose a proposal to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction? Nearly two-thirds of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, with strong intensity in opposition. Total By Party 44% Strongly 13% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

  39. A majority of voters across party lines say they would be less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction? By Tea Party Support By Party Total 33% Much More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less

  40. And, voters in America’s “swing seats” would be less likely to support a candidate who wanted to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction? Among GOP Freshman Seats Among Cook Report House Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States Among Cook Report Senate More Less More Less More Less More Less

  41. Voter Beliefs

  42. Owning a home is part of the American dream. • A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities. • Voters link homeownership to retirement security.

  43. Homeownership as part of the American Dream and the housing industry's linkage to jobs resonates strongly with voters. %Total Convincing For many people, owning a home is part of their American Dream: It creates a stronger community, a place to raise a family, and is their most valued stable investment for their children’s college education and their own retirement and well-being. We need to strengthen the housing market so that more Americans can achieve homeownership. A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities. Every new single-family home built creates three full-time jobs and increases the property tax base that supports local schools. We need to strengthen the housing market to keep our local economies growing and creating jobs.

  44. Homeownership as an investment and as a middle class value also touch voters. %Total Convincing Many Americans have planned their retirement by being able to live in the homes they have now paid off, and many others plan to use their investment in their homes to live on in retirement. To help ensure secure retirement for millions, we need to stabilize the housing market. Home ownership is key to having a strong middle class and helping people build toward the American dream. The recent housing crisis threatened to keep that out of reach for too many Americans. We need policies that encourage home ownership if we want to rebuild the middle class.

  45. Bottom Line

  46. Owning a home is a core value and still part of the American dream. • Voters want the government to develop policies that will encourage growth in the housing market. • And, they do NOT want the government to make it harder for people to achieve the American dream.

  47. For More Information: NAHB Communications communications@nahb.org 1-800-368-5242 x8409

  48. 214 North Fayette Street Alexandria, Virginia 22314 Phone: (703) 836-7655 Web: www.pos.org Celinda Lake Jonathan Voss Neil Newhouse Robert Blizzard 1726 M St., NW, Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 776-9066 Web: www. lakeresearch.org #11190

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