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World Energy and Future : PLENARY LECTURE

World Energy and Future : PLENARY LECTURE. The 4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DE VELOPMENT (IASME/ WSEAS - EEESD'08 ) Faro-Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008.

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World Energy and Future : PLENARY LECTURE

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  1. World Energyand Future:PLENARY LECTURE The 4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT(IASME/WSEAS - EEESD'08)Faro-Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008 Importance of Energy Conservation and Renewable and Alternative Energy Resources Prof. M. Kostic Mechanical Engineering NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY www.kostic.niu.edu

  2. EnergyEverywhere … “From the sovereign Sun to the deluge of photons out of the astounding compaction and increase of power-density in computer chips … www.kostic.niu.edu

  3. Global Energy and Future: Importance of Energy Conservation and Renewable and Alternative Energy Resources Solar 1.37 kW/m2, but only 12% over-all average 165 W/m2 2000 kcal/day100 Watt World over 6.5 billion 2,200 Watt/c300 Wel/c USA over 0.3 billion 11,500 Watt/c 1,500 Wel/c www.kostic.niu.edu

  4. Humanity’s Top Ten Problemsfor next 50 years • ENERGY (critical for the rest nine) • Water • Food • Environment • Poverty • Terrorism & War • Disease • Education • Democracy • Population 2006: 6.5 Billion People 2050: 8-10 Billion ( 1010 ) People www.kostic.niu.edu

  5. What Are We Waiting For? • (1)An Energy Crisis ? • (2)A Global Environmental Problem? • (3)An Asian Technology Boom? • orLeadership www.kostic.niu.edu

  6. The biggest single challengefor the next few decades by 2050 • (1)ENERGY for 1010 people • (2)At MINIMUM we need additional 10 TeraWatts (150 Mill. BOE/day) from some new clean energy source • We simply can not do this with current technology! • We needLeadership www.kostic.niu.edu

  7. YES! Thermodynamicsan almost forgotten science will provide vision for the future energy solutions … a science of ENERGY … the Mother of all sciences … check-and-balance ENERGY accounting … Energy efficiency enhancement and optimization … provides VISION and future ENERGY solutions FUNDAMENTALS & APPLICATIONS of ENERGY www.kostic.niu.edu

  8. I am a Thermodynamicist www.kostic.niu.edu

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  10. EEE-Global & Physics articles • More Encyclopedia Articles www.kostic.niu.edu

  11. Material system structure and related forces and energies www.kostic.niu.edu

  12. ENERGY Property and Transfer/Exchange • "... Energy is the ‘‘building block’’ and fundamental property of matter and space and, thus, the fundamental property of existence. • Energy exchanges or transfers are associated with all processes (or changes) and, thus, are indivisible from time." www.kostic.niu.edu

  13. Nanotechnology potentials … • Enabling Nanotech Revolution(s)Nanotech to the rescue … (1) Nano multifunctional materials (2) Nano electronics & super-computers (3) Nano sensors & actuators (4) Nano devices & robotics (5) Nanophotovoltaics & photocatalitics (6) Nano super-conductors (adv. transmission and el. motors) (7) Nano energy-storage (adv. batteries & hydrogen) (8) Nano bio-materials (synthetic fuels, pharmaceuticals, …) Some examples:Armchair Wire Project: electrical conductivity of copper at 1/6 the weight with negligible eddy currentsSingle Crystal Fullerene Nanotube Arrays … (Etc.) Wet-Nanotechnology:nanofluidsat NIU In collaboration with ANL www.kostic.niu.edu/DRnanofluids www.kostic.niu.edu

  14. The two things are certain • (1)the world population and their living-standard expectations will substantially increase(over 6 billion people now, in 50 years 10-11 billion - energy may double) • (2)fossil fuels’ economical reserves, particularly oil and natural gas, will substantially decrease(oil may run out in 30-50 years) www.kostic.niu.edu

  15. The Growth Curve Population & Energy: Unrestricted Exponential Growth • About one million years ago our own species, homo sapiens, first appeared, strived most of the history and boomed with agricultural and industrial revolution. We are over 6 billion now. • Standard of living and energy use have been growing almost exponentially due to abundance of resources. • The growth will be naturally restricted with overpopulation and resource depletion as we know it. www.kostic.niu.edu

  16. Source: Basic Research Needs To Assure A Secure Energy Future, ORNL Report, 2003 Earth Energy Balance: • All energy to Earth surface is 99.98 % solar, 0.02% geothermal, and 0.002% tidal-gravitational. • About 14 TW world energy consumption rate now (0.008% of solar striking Earth) is about 6 times smaller than global photosynthesis (all life), the latter is only 0.05% of total solar, and global atmospheric water and wind are about 1% of solar. www.kostic.niu.edu

  17. W/m2 % 144% www.kostic.niu.edu

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  19. Some Headlines…: • It took World 125 years to consume the first trillion barrels of oil – the next trillion will be consumed in 30 years. • The World consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered. • Only “Human Power” can deliver MORE energy with LOWER emission www.kostic.niu.edu

  20. Growing Petroleum Consumption Environmental Pollution Economic Competitiveness The challenges facing us… www.kostic.niu.edu

  21. A short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), Hubber’s Peak: www.kostic.niu.edu

  22. Million barrels per day Military Projected Actual Shipping Domestic Production Air Rail Off-Road Heavy Trucks Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002), Dec 2001 Passenger Vehicles Light Trucks Automobiles • Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day. • The U.S. imports 55% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo. • Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel. Oil consumption by U.S. transportation continues to grow www.kostic.niu.edu

  23. Major fraction of the world’s oil reserves is in the OPEC countries 26% 12% 2% 7% 41% 77% 67% 47% 21% Source: DOE/EIA, International Petroleum Statistics Reports, April 1999; DOE/EIA 0520, International Energy Annual 1997, DOE/EIA0219(97), February 1999. www.kostic.niu.edu

  24. World automobile populationis expected to grow substantially Source: OTT Analytic Team www.kostic.niu.edu

  25. World Fuel Mix 2001 25.00 oil World Energy Demand total 20.00 coal 15.00 gas TW-yrs industrial 10.00 developing renew nucl US 5.00 ee/fsu 0.00 1970 1990 2010 2030 85% fossil EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Use 2100: 46 TW 2050: 30 TW Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998 1 TWyr=31.56 EJ=5.89 bbl www.kostic.niu.edu

  26. Coal Energy Must Be Efficientto be competitive … from 35% Classical … to 60% Combined Cycle Gas/Steam Turbine Power Plant or even 85% Combined Power-Heat Plant www.kostic.niu.edu

  27. Vehicle Energy Efficiencies … from 15-25 MPG Classical … to 50 MPG Hybrid It is possible !!! www.kostic.niu.edu

  28. About 20% About 0.2 % … also first steam engine www.kostic.niu.edu

  29. Low efficiencyIndirectly Regenerated Heat & CO2 Directly Regenerated Heat & CO2High Efficiency Efficient: do MORE with LESS Improve true (2nd Law) efficiency by conserving energy potentials: REGENERATEbefore “diluting” and loosing it! Power “Waste” Heat & CO2 www.kostic.niu.edu

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  38. about 20%efficiency about 33%efficiency about 50%efficiency about 75%efficiency www.kostic.niu.edu

  39. 46% of 6%=2.8 % www.kostic.niu.edu

  40. World Oil Production 2037 bbl/yr 2016 50 2% demand growth ultimate recovery: 3000 bbl 40 30 20 2100 2000 2050 1900 1950 10 Energy Challenges: Supply Hubbert’s Peak when will production peak? production peak supply falls short of demand oil becomes precious price increases global tension EIA: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/ presentations/long_term_supply/index.htm 1 TWyr = 31.56 EJ = 5.89 bbl find alternate sources nuclear renewable Oil: 30-50 yrs? gas: beyond oil? coal: > 200 yrs? Distinguish between “Estimated” (above) and “Proven” reserves (next slide) www.kostic.niu.edu

  41. World now: 13 TWyr /yr  410 EJ/yr About 88 years: 60 coal, 14 oil, and 14 gas. Distinguish between “Proven” (above) and “Estimated” reserves www.kostic.niu.edu

  42. acid rain Energy Challenges: Local/Regional Pollution the six principal air pollutants(not including CO2) pollution zones near sources urban areas, power plants www.kostic.niu.edu

  43. So, what are we going to do? Do we need CASH for ALCOHOL research? www.kostic.niu.edu

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  49. The renewable biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons … • The renewable biomass energy (BM) and development of synthetic hydro-carbons (SynHC)will be very important if not criticalfor substitution of fossil fuels… • … since they are naturalextensions of fossil fuels, the existing energy infrastructure could be easily adapted • global CO2emission will be balanced during renewable biomass production. • BM&SynHC particularly promising for energy storage and use in transportationto replace fossil fuels, www.kostic.niu.edu

  50. Hydrogenversus Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons … … especially considering the Hydrogen facts: • (1)hydrogen does not exist in natureas primary energy source • (2)hydrogenproduction (from hydrocarbons or water) is energy inefficient(always net-negative, energy storage only) • (3)hydrogen storageand distribution are facing a host of problems that cannot be economically resolved with present state of knowledge www.kostic.niu.edu

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