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Asian climate change workshop-introduction

Asian climate change workshop-introduction. Julian Hunt Trinity College Cambridge University College London TU Delft . Themes –Asian and global. Science ---CC phenomena; --- Modelling ;Concepts Impacts/hazards Causes – emissions ( ghg ; pollutants) - land surface ;

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Asian climate change workshop-introduction

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  1. Asian climate change workshop-introduction Julian Hunt Trinity College Cambridge University College London TU Delft .

  2. Themes –Asian and global • Science ---CC phenomena; --- Modelling ;Concepts • Impacts/hazards • Causes – emissions (ghg; pollutants) - land surface ; • Policies –Integrated approaches? • Research and future collaboration

  3. Not widely known By politicians And policy makers -people live on land! Note IPCC-WMO Curve presented at International meetings. And to policy makers .

  4. Global Climate Data Trends 2011UKMet Office

  5. Global, Snow and Ice (UK Met Office) Modelling of ice edge /extent is not reliable. Effects of varying ice edge on ocean winds and currents could be significant (studies at UCL)

  6. SCHEMATIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESSES-note geographic var’n More convection in moister atmosphere Less snow/ice -> more volcanoes?

  7. _UPSLOPE Unusual  Usual -> us uusual Deeper convection? • Buoyancy + upslope (Ls) upslope turn right • Triggers convective upwind flow • (Note Lu Luc + Ls ; > 3*103 km) • Lu as N , h ; H (Climate; Aerosol; QBO?) • Ls as H (Geology)

  8. 1. Regimes CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE WITH GLOBAL WARMING EXTENDED STAGNANT AIR CASSOU & GULYARDI 2007

  9. Asymmetric dishpan experiment-what does el nino do to global circulations? ASU (HpPeng)

  10. Note + 2deg since 1950 –in data for 2010 . Likely to exceed 4deg by 2100—cf Hansen warning (historic)

  11. DRAG OF URBAN AREA –ALSO TURNS WIND -WEAK BUOYANCY FORCES BELOW INVERSION LAYER. NOTE DOWNWIND WAKE SCALE LR-EXTENDS OVER 10LR – (J.Chan HK) 500KM DOWNWIND OF MEGACITIES (J CHAN ..) ; (RIGHT DEFLN IF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CITY AND LOW WIND)

  12. STERN GLOBAL REVIEW _NOT VALID AFTER COP15? NEW IDEAS FOR 2010----?

  13. RANGES OF LIKELY EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF COUNTRY Normal Economic Development or with sustainable development policies -> DIFFERENT LEGISLATION FOR EACH REGION/COUNTRY- AFTER CANCUN. Normal Econ Dev. Sustainable development (.)' 2000 2100 ILPG – Industrialized low pop. Growth (EU; Japan) IHPG – Industrialized High pop. Growth (USA) DRI – Developing- rapid industrialization- limited pop. Growth (China) DRI(LA) – DRI plus large agricultural sector – high pop. Growth (India)

  14. Fusion Research Hybrid Fusion-Fission? Hybrid FF Efficient use of uranium/ thorium resources - no long term radioactive waste (100 yrs)? China – pilot project 2020? No plans for Europe? TOKAMAK Fusion Device OR MORE WIND ENERGY?

  15. Policy Issues • -Note International trend for national/regional policies on emissions/ conservation • -UNFCC/IPCC role is now monitoring , comparing, and predicting • -Need for International cooperation (including UN ) +ASIAN CLIMATE NETWORK? • *science, (monitoring ;modelling tropical/polar /terrestial effects on cc) • technology-Clean Energy , water; deforestation; bioreactors • Finance-Clean Development Mechanism; clean /green trading /pricing • Governance- national/(regional?)climate legislation • Cultural , Communications-eg water recycling , waste energy; low energy food; life styles.

  16. SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH INTEGRATION BY GOVERNMENTS, COMMUNITIES, INDIVIDUALS IN DIFFERENT GLOBAL REGIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL , ENERGY, TECHNOLOGICAL , AND SOCIAL, SECURITY POLICIES ?, Note advantages – economy (eg adaptation (flooding)and mitigation (clean energy) - public understanding/acceptance (with leadership) Note problems – short term costs versus long term advantages. (reF JH . ProcInstCivEngrsuk 2009)

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