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Applying System Dynamics Principles to CDEEP System MTP Presentation Rohit G ujrati 08305002 Guide: Co-Guide: Prof Sahana Murthy Prof. Sridhar Iyer CDEEP IIT Bombay CSE,IIT Bombay. Outline. Introduction Problem Definition System Dynamics Basics

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  1. Applying System Dynamics Principles to CDEEP SystemMTP Presentation Rohit Gujrati 08305002Guide: Co-Guide: Prof Sahana Murthy Prof. Sridhar IyerCDEEP IIT Bombay CSE,IIT Bombay

  2. Outline • Introduction • Problem Definition • System Dynamics Basics • CDEEP : Current State of the art • CDEEP Model • Features of a System Dynamics Model • Conclusion & Future Work • References

  3. Introduction • India produced 401,791 engineers in 2003-04 and in 2004-05, the number of engineering graduates increased to 464,743 [1]. • But only 25 per cent of them are employable[1]. • Main Reason : lack of well qualified teachers • Possible Solution : • Make IIT education accessible through Distance Education • Cost Effective • Global Reach

  4. Introduction continued … • IITB has been running the distance education program since last 10 years. • Currently in the form of CDEEP to provide: • Good quality courses taught by IIT Bombay faculty • To everyone • At any place • Both synchronous and asynchronous modes • But number of students benefiting from CDEEP live courses has not increased as expected

  5. Problem Definition • To model and analyse CDEEP system • To find out : • If there is any bottleneck resource • What–If analysis • If any policy changes needed • using System Dynamics • Why???

  6. System Dynamics Basics • Computer simulation modeling for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as business, engineering, and social systems • Think in terms of cause-and-effect • Focus on Feedback Loops • situation when output from an event will influence the same event in the future Study Grades Parents’ Expectations More More More

  7. SD Modeling: Standard approach [2] • Identify the problem • Develop a dynamic hypothesis • Create a basic causal loop diagram • Convert the causal diagram to a Stock flow diagram • Write the equations • Estimate the parameters and initial conditions. • using statistical methods, expert opinion, market research data or other relevant sources. • Simulate the model and analyze results

  8. Causal Loop Diagram • shows how one variable affects another. • nodes represent variables and arrows (called causal links) represent relationship • difficult to infer the behavior of a system only from its casual-loop representation Population Node time + Feedback Loop Causal Link

  9. Stock and Flow Diagram • Distinguishes between different types of variables • Consists of three different types of elements: stocks, flows, and information Flow Stock Information

  10. Stock and Flow Diagram cntd…. • SFD allows to represent relations among variables in terms of equations. • For Example • It becomes infeasible to solve as stocks and flows increase • Use computer simulators • Many simulators are available, (none is open source ) • We used Vensim PLE by Ventana Systems, Inc. [4] • Simulation result is time-history of variables • in terms of Graph/Table

  11. CDEEP : Current State of the art • Distance Education through • Live Webcast and Satellite Transmission • Dynamic System with Feedback Loops • 4 studios for live webcast (only 1 for satellite ) • Live Webcast through Internet at 100 kbps for each connection • Not many students participating in this program

  12. Our Work • Modeled Webcast and EDUSAT parts independently • Applied iterative approach to develop the model

  13. Initial Webcast Model Causal Loop Diagram

  14. Initial Webcast Model Stock and Flow Diagram joining new students Students Leaving

  15. Simulation Results Bottleneck Equilibrium Consistently 1

  16. Observations • Number of Students becomes constant (=200 student) after 24 months • Increasing number of courses doesn’t help • Bandwidth is the only bottleneck • Server is always underutilized • Limitations • MHRD grants can be used to bring in more resources, e.g. Bandwidth • Student feedback does matter • Marketing issues can not be ignored

  17. Modified Webcast Model Causal Loop Diagram

  18. Modified Webcast Model Stock and Flow Diagram Becomes 1 Gbps after 24 months From 4 to 6

  19. Simulation Results Server Overloaded Huge increment due to increase in BW • One more here

  20. Observations • Grants can be spent for different resources • Bandwidth increase much needed • If bandwidth is increased, server will become overloaded after 3 semesters • No. of courses limited by no. of studios • Marketing issues are very important • Feedback from students will influence no. of courses • Similarity of syllabus with other universities affects inflow

  21. EDUSAT Model • Transmission through EDUSAT satellite • Dedicated 1 Mbps uplink and 500 kbps downlink • Student Interactive Terminals (SIT) for reception • Currently 72 Remote Centre (RCs), mostly engineering colleges • RC coordinators and Instructors to ensure proper functioning

  22. EDUSAT Model Causal Loop Diagram

  23. EDUSAT Model Stock and Flow Diagram

  24. Results • Effect of relevance of courses

  25. Results • Optimal: 20 courses and 0.7 marketing will reach 373 Number of courses vs. number of students Marketing vs. number of students after 18 months

  26. Results • Effect of Distribution of Incoming Grants • Optimal mix : 20 courses and 0.7 on marketing Grants Enter Here

  27. Observations • Attention needs to be paid on publicizing CDEEP programs and encouraging student to join CDEEP • Effect of grants visible after 12 months • Optimal mix : 20 courses and 0.7 marketing efforts

  28. SDModel : Features • Current simulators are all proprietary applications • very limited collaboration among them • No truly successful open source System Dynamics model builder currently available. • Studied SystemDynamics Simulator[8] • Huge code without proper documentation • Prepared a higher level flowchart of a model and its constituent model components. • Referred an initiative SD Info Model[9]

  29. System Dynamics Model Dark line shows containment Dotted line shows information flow

  30. Conclusion • System Dynamics proved to be an important tool for modeling CDEEP system • Models were verified by CDEEP staff • Results obtained may help in improvement of existing system

  31. Future work • Recommendations made may be validated by implementing them over the actual CDEEP system

  32. Publication • Poster titled “Using System Dynamics to Model and Analyze a Distance Education Program” accepted in International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies and Development (ICTD) 2010.

  33. References [1] McKansey Global Institute. Report on Emerging global labour market,2005. [2] John Morecroft, Strategic modeling and business dynamics: a feedback systems approach , Page no. 106 [3] Deepak B. Phatak Kannan M. Moudgalya and R. K. Shevgaonkar. Engineering education for everyone: A distance education experiment at IIT Bombay. Frontiers in Education, 2008. [4] System Dynamics Modelling, A Practical Approach, Chapman & Hall, 1996. [5] http://www.cdeep.iitb.ac.in/ [6] http://www.vensim.com/ [7] http://www.public.asu.edu/~kirkwood/sysdyn [8] http://sourceforge.net/projects/system-dynamics [9] http://sourceforge.net/projects/sdinfomodel

  34. Thank You

  35. Appendix1 : EDUSAT Model

  36. Appendix2 : EDUSAT Model

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