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Reflections on the pursuit of psi. Jonathan W. Schooler University of California, Santa Barbara. Reasonable men may be allowed to differ where no one can reasonably be positive. David Hume (1779). The arrow of time.
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Reflections on the pursuit of psi Jonathan W. Schooler University of California, Santa Barbara
Reasonable men may be allowed to differ where no one can reasonably be positive. • David Hume (1779)
The arrow of time • Physicists acknowledge that there is nothing inherent in the laws of physics that precludes the arrow of time going from future to past • “…the laws of physics that have been articulated from Newton through Maxwell and Einstein and up until today, show a complete symmetry between past and future. Nowhere in any of these laws do we find a stipulation that they apply one way in time but not the other…even though experience reveals over and over again that there is an arrow of how events unfold in time, this arrow seem not to be found in the fundamental laws of physics…not only do no known laws fail to tell us why we see events unfold in only one order, they also tell us that in theory events can unfold in reverse order • Brian Greene (2004, p 144-145) • Nevertheless the presumption that causes precede effects is rather well entrenched
Summary of Honorton & Ferrari (1989) • 309 studies • 62 investigators • 2 million individual trials • 50,000 subjects • Small but reliable effect size .02 • z=11.41, p=6.3 10-25 • 30% of studies significant <.05 • No relationship between quality of study and size of effect • File drawer study 46 unreported for each reported study
Temporally Reversed Implicit Perceptual Priming • Procedure • View fixation • Noise mask • Briefly flashed image • Noise mask • Indicate whether you know what was presented • Image repeated or followed by a blank screen
If you know what the image just flashed was press the uparrow If you do not know what the image just flashed was press the downarrow
If you know what the image just flashed was press the uparrow If you do not know what the image just flashed was press the downarrow
Is Phase 1 Performance influenced by the future practice condition (Phase 2) assignment?
Behavioral Results • The precognition task for the first two sets of participants was run at the end of an hour long session, where the participants first did a difficult working memory task. • These data revealed a main effect of the future (phase 2) practice shape. Specifically, these two datasets from the University of Michigan show that if participants are going to practice with Shape A, they are faster in phase 1, compared to participants that are going to practice with Shape B (both p’s < 0.05).
Roulette Paradigm(*European Roulette with only 0, no 00, so chance is 48.6%) 1.) Make (arbitrary) pairing of outcome with P2 practice condition : w/ Shape A : w/ Shape B Practice w/ Shape A If ball lands on Phase 2 Phase 1 Spin the wheel If ball lands on Practice w/ Shape B
Hit Rate Over Time by Quarter (Moving Average 10): Overall N = 153, Hit rate = .555/Chance = .486 Q1 = .588, N=17 Q2 = .565, N=92 Q3 = .522, N=44 Subject # 6.9% Above chance, exact binomial test p = .10 two-tailed
Q1 Q2 Q3 r = -0.45, p =.05
Conclusions • MAJOR PREDICTION • Bem’s findings are going to prove difficult to replicate • Controversial Prediction • Conceptual extensions in new domains will initially work but will then similarly decline • Mainstream accounts • Regression to the mean • Refinement of procedure • Confirmatory rather than exploratory research • Controversial account • Heisenberg effects generalize in some yet unknown manner to scientific observation of phenomena • Genuine effects actually fade with repeated observation • Mainstream view clearly most parsimonious at present but uncertain until decline effect is adequately understood • Need a process for recording all negative and unpublished findings to resolve issue (Schooler, 2011, Nature)
