N O T E

1. N O T E If the slide show is not launched, click on View  Slide Show in the menu bar at the top of the Power Point window. When the View option is not visible, the slide show has been launched and you must click to proceed to the next slide.

2. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S

3. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Risk+ Results • This short demonstration provides information helpful in interpreting the results from Risk+ simulations. Prior to reviewing this demonstration, ensure you review the Using Risk+ slideshow (“instructions for the Risk+ software” PowerPoint file link is located on the Module 6 Tools page). • For this demonstration, the results were obtained from simulations run with the settings for the Microsoft Project DEMO file you used in the Using Risk+ slideshow. Those settings are: • Preview Task: Task #1 – Widget • Reporting Tasks: Task #1 – Widget • Task # 3 – Preliminary Design • Task #23 – Final Testing • Quick Setup: Medium confidence (±25%) • Global Edit: Tasks #11-19 • Set minimum to most likely -5% • Set maximum to most likely +40% • Triangular distribution • Fixed curve: Task #21 – Readiness Review • Iterations: 500 • Options: Duration Analysis • Cost Analysis • Critical Path Analysis

4. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Risk+ Results Let’s start by looking at the different pieces of information provided in the results. That will be followed by the charts from the simulation. NOTE: Since Risk+ uses randomly generated simulations, results will vary slightly from simulation to simulation; so if you run the simulation using the settings on the previous slide, you shouldn’t expect your results to match the charts in this file exactly. … continued on next page

5. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S DEMO Project 2000 Schedule Here is the Project schedule information for the DEMO file. Note that the schedule shows the project beginning on 21 Feb 2002 and finishing on 9 Jul 2002, a duration of 99 working days (using a five-day work week).

6. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S DEMO Project 2000 Schedule (cont’d) Here is the Project Gantt chart view of the DEMO schedule showing the critical path in red. NOTE: If there is no critical path showing in your DEMO Project file, you can show it by using the Gantt Chart Wizard feature in Project. Click on the Wizard icon in the Project menu bar, and follow the screen prompts to select critical path.

7. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Preview Task Results Here is the Risk Analysis Status box that appears for the task you select as the Preview Task (in this demonstration it is Task #1: Widget) during and after the simulation is run. If you do not select the Close button, the box will close automatically after about one minute. Note that the expected completion date (arrow) is 16 Jul 2002, which is one week later than what shows in the Project schedule (9 Jul 2002).

8. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results Completion Date Histogram Here is the Completion Date Histogram for one of the tasks selected as a Reporting Task (in this demonstration it is Task #3: Preliminary Design). The following slide will discuss this chart in more detail.

9. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Most Likely Completion Date Completion Dates The blue vertical boxes in the graph represent the various completion dates (or completion date intervals if the bar represents more than one day). In this example, each bar represents one day (from the legend in the top left of the chart not visible on this slide; see previous slide). The height of each box indicates how many times the project completed on a given date. The frequency of occurrence (per cent of simulations) for each completion date is shown on the left side of the graph (in blue font). The most likely completion date (arrow) is the one which occurred most often during the run. In this example, it is 4/3/2002; the project completed on this date during 17% of the simulations. The most likely completion date is very likely to vary from run to run, so it is not a good predictor of the expected results.

10. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Latest Completion Date Earliest Completion Date Expected Completion Date Completion Dates (Cont’d) The earliest, expected, and latest completion dates are shown (left to right respectively) along the bottom of the histogram chart (see above). The earliest (3/26/02) and latest (4/12/02) dates represent extreme dates that occur in the simulation and will likely vary some during multiple runs of the simulation. Like the most likely completion date (previous slide), they are not particularly useful information by themselves. The expected completion date for this task (Preliminary Design) is 4/4/02. In this case, it is one day later than the estimated completion date for Preliminary Design in the Project schedule. Is there a way you can tell how accurate this estimate is?

11. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Standard Deviation In the upper left hand corner of the histogram output (see Slide # 8) is the Standard Deviation for the simulation. In this output, it is 2.33 days. Since the output graph looks somewhat normal in shape, we can expect about 68% (or one standard deviation) of the completion dates to lie within ± 2.33 days, about 95% (or two standard deviations) would lie within ± 4.66 days and almost all (or three standard deviations) within ± 6.99 days. 95% Confidence Interval In the same corner, just below the Standard Deviation is the 95% Confidence Interval for the expected completion date. In this output, it is 0.2 days. That means if you ran the simulation multiple times, the estimated completion date for this task would lie within ± 0.2 days of the actual (but unknown) expected completion date 95% of the time. NOTE: For more information on statistical information, use the Risk+ Help Topics from the Risk Analysis menu. Select the Contents tab, then select Using Risk+ Effectively, and then A Quick Look at Statistics.

12. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Cumulative Probability Curve and Table The red S-shaped curve (highlighted for emphasis in the graph above) shows the cumulative probability of completing on or before a given date using the probability scale on the right of the graph (in red font). To the right of the graph is the Completion Probability Table showing the cumulative probability of completion ranging from 5 – 100% in 5% increments with the date associated with each probability. These probabilities/dates align with the red S-shaped curve in the graph.

13. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Cost Histogram Here is the Cost Histogram for the same task (Task #3: Preliminary Design). The basic information is the same except it refers to cost of completion instead of dates. To move back forth between Completion Date and Cost histograms, click on the scroll bar on the right side of the histogram screen. Click on the scroll bar to switch to the Completion Date histogram

14. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Risk Gantt Chart This is a custom view created by Risk+ to display tasks in your schedule that may need special or greater attention. To the left of each Gantt bar a Risk Critical Index will be displayed indicating the percentage of time a task spent on the critical path during the simulation. Task bars in blue indicate tasks not on the critical path; those in red indicate tasks on the critical path. In this unique view, the bars in magenta indicate risk critical tasks, meaning they were not originally on the critical path, but during the simulation they appear on the critical path more than a user-specified percentage of the time. Recall that with the initial schedule, we worked with single point estimates for completion dates, but during the simulation, the ranges of completion dates for the selected tasks are factored in, thus causing some non-critical tasks to sometimes appear on the critical path. To view the Risk Gantt Chart, select Risk Gantt Chart from the Risk Analysis menu. See the next slide.

15. I N T E R P R E T I N G R I S K + R E S U L T S Reporting Task Results (cont’d) Risk Gantt Chart (cont’d) In the chart below, tasks 3 – 10 are on the critical path if everything goes as planned, but appear on the critical path only 18% of the time during the simulation. However, tasks 12 – 19 appeared on the critical path 82% of the time during the simulation even though they were not on the original critical path. Note tasks 21-23 appear on the critical path normally and 100% of the time during the simulation.

16. U S I N G R I S K P L U S SAMPLE To print the PowerPoint slides, click on File  Print… You will then be prompted to choose your print options. Select them and click OK. Risk+ version 2.0, 5-16-05 chart 16