2. Beginning How cleavages relate to factions Where the tensions came from

31. A Year Later

34. Process Pictures 2009 • What did you see? • What do you think about that? • What does it make you wonder?

35. Factions in Iran

36. Cleavages • Cross-cutting – the poor are the elite’s religious base and have benefited from patronage • Educated Middle Class = Reformists

37. 2009 1981 1997 1989 2005 Khamenei

38. Factions in Iran

39. Conservatives principles of regime Against modernization Wary of west Support right of clerics to run the political system Reformists international involvement with West political leaders do not have to be clerics Less supervision of society Fewer powers to Guardian Council Open elections Public Policy:Policy-Making Factions

40. Election 2009? • Reformists (Moussavi) v. Hardliners (Ahm) OVERLAP • Pragmatic Conservatives (Rafsanjani) v. Hardliners (Ahm) AND • Disrupted those who control behind the scenes.

41. TODAY- Conservatives vs. Radicals? • "Iran’s most senior cleric denounced the role of the volunteer militia force known as the Basij in the crackdown against protesters, saying the force’s actions were against religion and 'in the path of Satan.' • "'Why do you beat people?' Ayatollah Montazeri asked in the statement. 'Because they do not accept what you say? Basij was founded to act within the path of God, not Satan. Isn’t it unfortunate to go to hell for the benefits of others?'

42. Bazarri vs Bonyads • gradually lost power to the military-security groups, from whose ranks President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emerged. • Bureaucratic and security services dominated by the Revolutionary Guards and its militia, the Basij (Mobilization Corps), are now firmly in command.

43. Sean Connery Ayatollah Khomeini

44. Revolution #1

45. Revolution #2

46. The battle all comes back to the Institutions of Government