Lessons Learned from the 2007 Arctic Ice Minimum Workshop: Strategies for Future Research

1. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Good morning Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado Jean-Claude Gascard Pierre Universitreg

2. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Agenda • Component presentations and discussion Wednesday a.m. and early p.m., plenum • Integration/synthesis presentations and discussion Wednesday p.m., plenum and groups • Gaps and needs – recommended steps discussion Thursday a.m., plenum

3. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Measures of Success Individually: DIdyou get something useful out of the meeting? Learn something? Meet someone? Plan something? Start something?

4. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Measures of Success Individually: DIdyou get something useful out of the meeting? Learn something? Meet someone? Plan something? Start something? Collectively: Will others – scientific community, agencies – get something useful out of it?

5. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Agenda III. Lessons from 2007: Gaps and Needs for Understanding Arctic Change 8:30 a.m. Welcome, review of Wednesday discussions, and today's goal Martin Miles, ESARC Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie 9:00 a.m. Presentations and Discussion focused on: ·        What lessons can be learned from 2007 to guide future science activities? ·        What is needed in additional capacity and plans for observing the 2008season (and beyond) to improve our understanding, and response strategies to arctic-system change? Specific needs relating back to the AON and Lagrangian workhops? 10:00 BREAK 10:30 a.m. Conclusions, recommendations, and next steps: ·        Given the unexpected changes witnessed in 2007, what are the priorities for observing, understanding, and responding to change activities? ·        How should these priorities be addressed? What are the next steps? Discussion of workshop products (synthesis papers and other products), next steps, and writing assignments

6. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org 1. Review of Sessions I and II

7. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge • Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org • Review of Session I – Component talks • Sea ice, atmosphere and ocean • Terrestrial and human

8. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Component-level data and understanding Temporal Spatial Quant.

9. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org Review of Session II – Synthesis / modeling talks and discussions

10. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Charge: Goals for today • Related to goals for the workshop

11. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Workshop Goals • 1. Evaluate present knowledge • Observing • Understanding

12. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Workshop Goals • 2. Improve integration: cross-disciplinary and • national / international • Exchange information on ongoing research efforts • Identify strategy for cross-boundary collaborations

13. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Workshop Goals • 3. Produce an integrated overview of the summer • 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for continued decline or recovery • Observing • Understanding

14. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Workshop Goals • 4. Produce recommendations for addressing • gaps in data and system understanding, to guide near- and long-term science activities • Observing • Understanding • Responding

15. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Outcomes and Deliverables • 1. Produce recommendations for addressing • gaps in data and system understanding, to guide near- and long-term science activities – and strategy integration of efforts – to guide near- and long-term science activities • Gaps-and-needs discussion and subsequent efforts • Deliverable:Report

16. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Outcomes and Deliverables • 2. Produce an integrated overview of the summer • 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for continued decline or recovery • Component talks, synthesis and subsequent efforts • Deliverable:Synthesis paper(s); Forecast/projection

17. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 2. Presentations and Discussion on WGs 1) Through modeling and data analysis activities – including retrospective analyses of the long-term observational record – how well do we understand 2007? What are the gaps in observing and understanding sea-ice loss and related changes? 2) What do modeling and data analysis tell us about overall system behavior that is relevant for predicting sea ice – on seasonal to decadal time scales – and related arctic changes? How does the “tipping point” concept factor in? 3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to change?

19. WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Synthesis of 2007:Discussion Themes 3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to change?