1. Presentation of the AURECON Review Prepared for the Community Reference Group STANTHORPE PRESENTED on 11TH April 2013 ERGON ENERGY - Warwick to Stanthorpe110 kV sub-transmission line proposal

2. Contents • Introduction • Aurecon • Demographic Analysis • Demand Forecast • Network Limitations • Options • Conclusions

3. Introduction • In 2008, Ergon Energy completed a report recommending the establishment of a second 110 kV sub-transmission line from Warwick to Stanthorpe to augment supply to the Stanthorpe bulk supply substation (T60) • A community reference group (CRG) was formed to provide a recommendation to Ergon on a preferred option to deliver reliability of power to Stanthorpe. • As part of this undertaking Aurecon has been commissioned to provide an independent review the need for the second 110 kV sub-transmission line

4. Aurecon capability and experience • Aurecon has been involved in numerous electricity infrastructure projects for electricity utilities, independent power producers and independent network owners around the country, • We understand the operation and development of electricity networks. We also have a deep understanding of the environmental and community issues involved. • We have had significant involvement in areas such as strategic planning, project planning, concept design, reliability, protection and detailed design. • We are a leading consulting engineering organisation in Australia for renewable energy projects, having significant involvement in major wind and solar projects

5. Demographic data Demographic data has been sourced from:- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (census data) The Office of Economic and Statistical Research Southern Downs Regional Council Stanthorpe Shire Council The data considered includes:- Population and housing data Community Profile Data Regional Profile Data Community Plans Economic Development Strategies Investment Prospectus Council Planning Schemes

6. Demographic data The demographic analysis indicates that:- In 2011 the resident population was 10,875 Population growth from 2006 has been approximately 1.3% The future population growth is expected to be between 1% and 1.5% per annum. Economic development is expected to grow at 1% per annum Employment is expected to grow at 1.2% per annum. Residential housing is expected to grow at 2% per annum Non residential floor space is expected to grow at 0.9% per annum The conclusion from the demographic is that electrical demand is likely to grow at between 1% and 2% per annum

7. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand The following will factors influence electrical demand going forward: Population growth Economic growth Large new loads (major projects) Natural load growth New technology Distributed solar power Distributed electrical storage Electric cars The economic climate.

8. Demand Forecast – A review of the previous 10 years

9. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand Natural Load Growth: First we had lights Then we had refrigerators Now we have lighting, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, washing machines, toasters, ovens, TV’s, computers, …etc This natural growth in load is estimated to be between 0.25% and 0.75% per annum.

10. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand New Technology People are replacing incandescent lights with compact fluorescent lights People are replacing old TV’s with new LCD TV’s These trends are reducing energy and demand. This is a trend evident around the country, and has been observed for approximately 2 years. However, once saturation is reached the growth will continue based on the underlying drivers.

11. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand Distributed Solar PV Distributed Storage As prices come down people will adopt solar PV installations in concert with battery storage. This will enable battery charging either with solar energy or on off peak tariffs. Energy will then be discharged at times of peak demand and higher cost. The impact of this will be to reduce future loads, but this is not expected to be significant before 2025

12. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand Electric Cars Electric car charging will significantly increase household energy consumption and electrical demand. This is expected to become prevalent in urban areas within 5 to 10 years The effect of solar PV plus storage will counterbalance this to some degree However in rural areas where travel distances are greater, the uptake of electric cars is expected to be slower.

13. Demand Forecast Factors Affecting Electrical Demand The economic climate: Current economic conditions have reduced electrical demand and slowed the growth in demands Downturns are followed by upswings, so this effect is transitory

14. Demand Forecast