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Central America & Hispaniola Briefing

Tom.DiLiberto@noaa.gov. Central America & Hispaniola Briefing. 12 October 2010. > 100 mm. 0 mm. Hurricane Paula Moving NW at 10 mph; 992 mb ; winds: 75 mph Paula rapidly intensified from tropical disturbance to hurricane in ~ 12-18 hours.

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Central America & Hispaniola Briefing

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  1. Tom.DiLiberto@noaa.gov Central America & Hispaniola Briefing 12 October 2010

  2. > 100 mm 0 mm

  3. Hurricane Paula • Moving NW at 10 mph; 992 mb ; winds: 75 mph • Paula rapidly intensified from tropical disturbance to hurricane in ~ 12-18 hours. • Environment to continually get less conducive for development as shear increases and dry air inhibits strengthening • Paula is a small hurricane with most convection offshore of Central America. • Final track will depend on the strength of Paula as steering currents break down by Wednesday • Paula could wander east of the Northern Yucatan all week

  4. Rainfall Suppression across Central America IR Temperatures (K) / 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies Positive Values (Brown contours) – Conditions not favorable for precipitation Negative Values (Green contours) – Conditions favorable for precipitation Central America under the Suppression phase of the Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) which will help inhibit precipitation

  5. Ensemble Mean GFS MJO Forecast – OLR anomalies Ensemble GFS MJO Forecast MJO forecast to weaken in amplitude and continue propagating east during the next week Suppressed convection over Central America forecast for the next week

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