1 / 20

Export Spillovers in Central & Eastern Europe

Export Spillovers in Central & Eastern Europe. Tine Jeppesen FIW Research Conference Vienna December 10 th 2010. Outline of Presentation. Research Question and Motivation Contributions of paper Theory & Literature Data & Empirical methodology Results

malaya
Télécharger la présentation

Export Spillovers in Central & Eastern Europe

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Export Spillovers in Central & Eastern Europe Tine Jeppesen FIW Research Conference Vienna December 10th 2010

  2. Outline of Presentation • Research Question and Motivation • Contributions of paper • Theory & Literature • Data & Empirical methodology • Results • Conclusion

  3. Research Question Research Question & Motivation • Does FDI affect the export participation and performance of domestic firms? • What are the channels of export spillovers? • Horizontal / Vertical linkages

  4. Why study export spillovers? Research Question & Motivation • Promoting exports is common policy goal • Correlation between growth of real exports and real output (Greenaway 2004 European Journal of Political Economy) • Exporting causes productivity increases? De Locker (2007) JIE • Export spillovers may be an additional benefit from hosting FDI

  5. Contributions Contributions • Evidence from multiple countries • Region where FDI is increasing rapidly • Firm-level information on vertical linkages

  6. Theoretical Framework Theory & Literature • Findings in empirical literature on export behaviour • Sunk costs (Roberts & Tybout, 1997) • Exporter are more productive than non-exporters (Bernard & Jensen ; Melitz, 2003) • MNEs can affect export performance of domestic firms by • Lowering sunk costs • Increasing domestic productivity

  7. Theory & Literature Channels of export spillovers: Horizontal spillovers • Foreign market information (Aitken et al. 1997 JIE) • Knowledge/ technology spillovers (labour movements, imitation) • Competition (Greenaway et al. 2004 European J. of political Economy)

  8. Theory & Literature Channels of export spillovers: Vertical spillovers • Greater scope for spillovers? (Javorcik, 2004 AER) • Evidence of productivity spillovers to upstream industries in Eastern Europe (Javorcik, 2004 AER ; Gorodnichenkoet al. 2007 IZA; Javorcik and Spatareanu, 2009) • Information, reputational effects

  9. Data Data and empirical methodology • Enterprise Surveys, The World Bank Group • Firm-level data • Survey rounds: 2002, 2005, 2008/09 • Survey universe ‘commercial, service or industrial business establishments with at least five fulltime employees’ • 2002 and 2005: Quota Sampling • 2008/09: Stratified random sampling

  10. Data and empirical methodology Data continued • 23 countries Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Rep. Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Rep. Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine. • Manufacturing industries ISIC Rev.3.1: 15-37 • Small, medium and large firms

  11. Data and empirical methodology Data continued • Multinationals are bigger, more productive, use a higher share of foreign inputs, supply a higher share of inputs to other multinationals and are more export oriented than domestic firms. • The same differences are found between domestic exporters and non-exporters.

  12. Empirical Strategy Data and empirical methodology • Heckman selection model • Exclusion restriction: International quality certification (ISO 9000, ISO 1400) • Model is estimated only on domestic firms. Exclude government owned enterprises. • Small sample size: Only include industries with more than 5 firms

  13. Spillover Measures Data and empirical methodology • Horizontal • Hor_empjkt • Hor_expjkt • Vertical • Share of output sold to MNE within the country (2002, 2005) • Share of inputs of foreign origin

  14. Control variables Data and empirical methodology • Industry level controls • Industry share of total country exports • Industry share of total country employment • Standard firm-level controls • Labour productivity • Employment • Age • Country, year, industry dummies

  15. Mean differences Exporters and Non-exporters

  16. Industry level Data and empirical methodology

  17. Results: All Firms *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Clustered adjusted standard errors in parentheses all regressions include country, year and industry dummies. Wald test rejects independence between participation and performance equation Constant not shown

  18. Results: Small Firms *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Clustered adjusted standard errors in parentheses all regressions include country, year and industry dummies. Wald test rejects independence between participation and performance equation Constant not shown

  19. Results: Larger Firms *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Clustered adjusted standard errors in parentheses all regressions include country, year and industry dummies. Wald test rejects independence between participation and performance equation Constant not shown

  20. Conclusion Conclusion • Effect of MNEs on domestic export performance is complex • Different effects of horizontal and vertical spillovers • Vertical linkages positively affects both export participation and intensity. Underlines importance of local linkages.

More Related