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Day Shift Forecast Exercise: SREF Applications for Severe and Winter Weather

This exercise focuses on creating Day 1 forecasts for fire weather and winter weather, as well as Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks for severe convective weather using available observational and model data. Participants will learn to assess threat confidence using low, medium, and high qualifiers. The workshop includes analysis of significant weather events that occurred on January 1, 2006, involving fires and severe storms in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma, and offers insights into operational forecasts and winter weather discussions.

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Day Shift Forecast Exercise: SREF Applications for Severe and Winter Weather

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  1. COMAP Lab SREF Applications COMAP 18 June 2007 Boulder, CO

  2. Lab IntroductionSREF Applications • Day Shift Forecast Exercise • EXERCISE: • 1. Create Day 1 Outlooks for: Fire Weather and Winter Weather • Create Day 1 and Day 2 Outlooks for: Severe Convective Weather • Assess threat confidence using the qualifiers: low, medium, high • DATA: • Observational data available: • 12 UTC Upper Air Charts (handouts) • 12 and 15 UTC Surface Maps (handouts) • Model data available: • 09 UTC SREF (online…URL below) • http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap

  3. Day 1 Severe Outlook Valid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1 Hail Wind Torn

  4. Day 2 Severe Outlook Valid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 2 (Tomorrow)

  5. Day 2 Fire Outlook Valid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1 (Today)

  6. Lab SummarySREF Applications

  7. Lab Summary Forecast Start:09 UTC 1 January 2006 To view the case with dates included: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap_nomask The big weather event on Day 1, Sunday 1 January 2006: Fires in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma

  8. Lab Summary

  9. Lab Summary

  10. Lab Summary Sea Level Pressure and Surface Wind Analysis Valid 21 UTC 1 January 2006

  11. Lab Summary SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/2006/060101.html

  12. Lab Summary Convective Weather

  13. Lab Summary Lightning Activity (Day 1) Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 00 UTC 2 Jan Lightning Activity (Day 1) Valid 00 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan

  14. Lab Summary Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) Valid 06 UTC 2 January 2006

  15. Lab Summary Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 1) Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060101_rpts.html

  16. Lab Summary Lightning Activity (Day 2) Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 00 UTC 3 Jan Lightning Activity (Day 2) Valid 00 UTC 3 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan

  17. Lab Summary Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) Valid 18 UTC 2 January 2006

  18. Lab Summary Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) Valid 23 UTC 2 January 2006

  19. Lab Summary Central Kentucky, ~18 UTC 2 Jan 2006 (Up to F2 damage in Kentucky) Central Georgia, ~23 UTC 2 Jan 2006 (Up to F3 damage in Georgia)

  20. Lab Summary 6 injuries in GA TOR Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 2) Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060102_rpts.html

  21. Lab Summary Operational forecasts issued by the SPC on the morning of 1 January 2006: SPC Outlook (Day 1 issued 1630 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060101_1630.html SPC Outlook (Day 2 issued 1730 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2otlk_20060101_1730.html

  22. Lab Summary Winter Weather

  23. Lab Summary Liquid equivalent of 24h snow ending 06 UTC 2 January 2006 Snow Reports: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/reports.html?region=National&var=snowfall&dy=2006&dm=1&dd=2&units=e&sort=value

  24. Lab Summary SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather VALID: 1255Z – 1630Z 1 January 2006 More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0001.html

  25. Lab Summary SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather VALID: 1802Z – 2230Z 1 January 2006 More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0002.html

  26. Lab Summary SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather VALID: 0038Z – 0445Z 2 January 2006 More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0004.html

  27. Lab Summary SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather VALID: 0121Z – 0615Z 2 January 2006 More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0005.html

  28. Lab Summary Additional Information for the Lab Archived SPC Meso-Analyses: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/ Archived SPC Forecasts: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/ USDA Weekly and Crop Bulletin: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2000s/2006/weather_weekly-01-10-2006.pdf FEMA Reports: http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2006/janarch06.shtm

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