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Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Comprehensive Overview

This resource delves into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as an alternative method for establishing target levels, addressing uncertainties, and characterizing risks. It compares statistical vs. deterministic inputs and emphasizes site-specific applications. The implementation of PRA, potential software options, and considerations for selecting appropriate distributions are discussed, highlighting its relevance in modern risk assessment practices.

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Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Comprehensive Overview

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  1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) • Alternate approach to developing target levels • Increasingly common (NASA, NRC, USEPA) • Statistical vs deterministic inputs (can be combined) • Addresses uncertainty • Site-specific vs default SCTL application • Requires ID of appropriate input distributions Draft Copy Subject To Change

  2. Probabilistic vs Deterministic • Uses distributions vspoint estimates for inputs • Seeks to characterize degree of uncertainty by iterative calculations (e.g., 100,000 events) • Avoids unintentional cumulative conservatism • 376.30701(2), F.S. speaks to protection against risks under “actual circumstances of exposure” • Typically Tier 3 rather than Tier 1 exercise Draft Copy Subject To Change

  3. Implementation • Option for PRA use in 62-780 • Previously used in 2008 62-302 Baseline analysis • Recently used in 2013 SW criteria establishment • Use for revamping 62-777 SCTLs would require consensus selection of applicable distributions Draft Copy Subject To Change

  4. Summary • Commercial software options for PRA available • PRA can be combined w/deterministic elements • Will require review of various distributions • Applicable as a risk assessment option now • May be longer term exercise for default SCTLs • May not be appropriate for Tier 1 analysis Draft Copy Subject To Change

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