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Northwest River Forecast Center

Northwest River Forecast Center. Hydrologic Forecasting at the River Forecast Center Idaho Falls, ID Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist-in-Charge NWRFC, Portland, OR. 1. Columbia River Basin & Coastal Tributaries 326,225 mi 2 (844,922 km 2 ) 6-state Area of Responsibility

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Northwest River Forecast Center

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  1. Northwest River Forecast Center Hydrologic Forecasting at the River Forecast CenterIdaho Falls, ID Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist-in-Charge NWRFC, Portland, OR 1

  2. Columbia River Basin & Coastal Tributaries • 326,225 mi2 (844,922 km2) • 6-state Area of Responsibility • 2 Canadian Provinces • Elevation Range: 0-14110 ftmsl • 0 – 4300 m msl • Variable Orographic Relief • Highly Variable Precip/Snow • Seasonal Operational Workload • Economies driven by Water Supply 13 River Forecast Centers National Weather Service 122 Weather Forecast Offices

  3. Hydrologic Cycle

  4. Basic Hydrology Catchments Concepts • Precipitation • Temperature • SNOTEL • Streamflow • Forecast point Headwater Reservoir Reservoir Inflow Headwater • Basin analysis • Basin characteristics • Historical statistics • Water budget analysis • Data (gage) availability • Artificial influences • Service determination • Calibration Routing Reach And Local WatersheD

  5. Catchments modeling over the NWRFC domain • 365 catchments • Size range • 60 to 10000 mi2 • 1136 various forecasts • Various time domains • Daily • Seasonal • Annual

  6. Effects of Orographics Headwater Headwater Headwater Reservoir Inflow Reservoir Inflow Headwater Routing Reach And Local WatersheD

  7. 1839 total • 99.5% of SNOTEL sites are >2400 ft • Impacts low elevation snow assessments 427 total 745 total 1145 total + reservoirs 2400 ft

  8. What goes into the forecast? Temperature Precipitation Flow Soil Moisture Precip/Temp ET Future Forcings Plus observed/antecedent conditions

  9. End-to-End Operational Forecast Process data modeling forecasts Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration • Data Collection • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Monitoring & review

  10. Modeling Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collection • collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration • Precipitation Quality Control • Interactive Process • 6/24 hour data • Climatological normalization • Threshold comparisons • Spatial comparisons • Systematic estimation • Manual forcing and over-rides • Output qualified for model use

  11. Data Assimilation Modeling Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration Points Grids MAPs Climatological Normalization and Distance Weighting Integration within Basin Boundaries

  12. Modeling Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collection • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration • Observed Temperature • Grid analysis transformed to points • Point values render an “estimated” pseudo station Tx/Tn • Pseudo station generate FMAT • 1 pseudo station/zone • 100% weighted (single station only)

  13. Modeling Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration Snow Water Equivalent Snow Ripeness Areal Extent of Cover

  14. Modeling Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration Snow Update System Quality Control

  15. Modeling Data Assimilation Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collection • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration Forecast Observed Bad Data • Quality controlled in the context of simulated streamflow • Automated quality control is limited

  16. Radar Climatology MSO 7855 GEG 2384 SEA 494 LGX 354 BOI 3061 PQR 1572 PDT 1515 MFR 7513 PIH 4474

  17. PP Tx Tn Modeling Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collection • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration • Future forcings • Precipitation • Max/Min Temperature • Freezing Level • PET

  18. Data Assimilation Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model Observed Hydrology Simulation and Analysis

  19. Timeliness Forecast Value Accuracy Forecast Lead Time BalancingTimeliness and Accuracy

  20. Modeling Data Assimilation Data Assimilation Modeling Dissemination End-to-End Operational Forecast Process • Forecast generation • Quality assurance • Dissemination • Web services • Coordination & collaboration • Basin monitoring & review • Data collation • Data assimilation • Quality control • Forcing construction (HAS) • Forecast Review • Model simulations • Hydrologic analysis • Hydraulic analysis • Bias & error adjustments • Regulation Integration • Collaboration • Hydrologic Forecasts • Deterministic • Probabilistic • Flash Flood Guidance • Flood Outlook Potential (GIS) • Water Supply • Volumetric • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Trace Ensembles • Probabilistic Services • Web Products

  21. Sample 10-day Deterministic Forecast • Lead time is key • Skill • Accuracy • Uncertainty Climatology Day 1-3 Skilled Forecast 10 days of Observed Day 4-10 Trend-Only Forecast

  22. New Developments: Integrated Water Resources Science & Services (IWRSS) TOO MUCH • Consortium of Federal agencies with roles in water resources: Initially NOAA, USGS, and USACE(will expand in future): • MOU signed May 2011 • Multi-agency framework to: • Integrate services and service delivery, including river and flood forecasts, by: • Improving system interoperability and data synchronization • Standardizing data • Developing collaborative tools • Provide new geospatial water resources information products and services to improve Common Operating Picture among partners and stakeholders • IWRSS & NWS field offices supported by National Water Center(anticipated completion 2013) TOO LITTLE POOR QUALITY

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