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An Introduction to the Northeast River Forecast Center PowerPoint Presentation
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An Introduction to the Northeast River Forecast Center

An Introduction to the Northeast River Forecast Center

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An Introduction to the Northeast River Forecast Center

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  1. An Introduction to the Northeast River Forecast Center

  2. OUTLINE • General information about NERFC • NERFC Activities • NERFC Products • Uniqueness of Lake Chaplain and tributaries of St Lawrence Forecasts

  3. Mission of NOAA’s NWSHydrologic Services Program • Provide River and Flood Forecasts and Warnings for the Protection of Life and Property • Provide Hydrologic Information for the Nation’s Economic and Environmental Well-Being (Including Forecast Information for Water Resources Management)

  4. 13 River Forecast Centers

  5. NERFC Area of Responsibility Major river basins include Genesee, Hudson, Connecticut, Merrimack & Kennebec

  6. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) • Objective • Provide improved flood/river forecasting capabilities for the Nation • What will AHPS provide? • Extends current 1, 2, 3 day lead-times out to weeks and months • Provides river forecasts with uncertainty information for risk-based decisions • Provides visual flood-forecast products

  7. NERFC AHPS FOCUS • Soil moisture modeling • Convert from event based API to continuous SAC SMA • Increase number of forecast points • Eventually will double the number of locations • Hydraulic routing • Lake Champlain • Lower Hudson and Connecticut Rivers

  8. NERFC Activities • Operations • Hydrometeorological input • River forecasting • Product dissemination/coordination • Development • Model calibration • Procedures/Processes • System/Database

  9. FORECAST POINTS • 178 River forecast points – most daily with issuance of 54 hours of 6 hour time series forecasts • This is an increase of 48 during the past 2 years • Most of increase has been in New York state and in Maine • An additional 27 new forecast points are planned

  10. Data Sources • Volunteer Observers • Cooperative Federal and State Agencies • Synoptic Surface Observation Network (ASOS) • GOES satellite data collection platforms • Telephone telemetry • Radar Precipitation Estimates

  11. Hydrometeorological Inputs • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) • Data quality control • Temperature forecasts

  12. National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) • Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling • Modular • Nationally supported • Requires local configuration and calibration

  13. NWSRFS • Collection of models and processes • Snow accumulation/ablation • Compute runoff • Channel and reservoir routing • Components • Calibration • Operational forecasting • Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)

  14. Calibration • Inventory and analysis of historical data • Time series based on historical data • Model selection • Calibration of model parameters

  15. Operational Forecast System • Preprocesses observed and future data • Updates model state parameters • Provides short-term river and flood forecasts

  16. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Uses historical precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data • Uses current model states from the operational forecast system • Produces medium to long range probabilistic forecasts

  17. River Conditions Current and Forecast River Conditions

  18. River Forecast Product • :W BR OSWEGATCHIE R AT HARRISVILLE NY ---PROVISIONAL- • :LATEST ESTIMATED DISCHARGE 1.1 KCFS AT 0700 EST ON 0220 .ER HVLN6 20060220 E DC200602201031/DH13/QTIFF/DIH6 • :FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0220: / 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0 .E2 :0221:/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9 .E3 :0222:/ 0.9/ 0.8 • :Local MAP - 4 6 hr pds - ending at 07AM EST on 0220. : 0.01/0.00/0.00/0.07/ • :Local QPF - 4 6 hr pds - ending at 07AM EST on 0221. : 0.08/0.08/0.00/0.00/ • : FORECAST FLOWS ARE PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES ONLY

  19. Graphical Forecasts

  20. Flood Potential

  21. GIS Maps • Precipitation • Temperature • Snowfall • Snow Depth • Snow Water Equivalent

  22. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Based on 40 years of historical precipitation and temperature • Based on current snowpack and soil moisture conditions

  23. Flood Mapping

  24. Lake Champlain and tributaries of St Lawrence RiverForecasts • Lake Champlain • wind can have a significant impact • Tributaries of the St Lawrence • Flooding does not appear to be the primary interest • Interest is primarily on water volume • Real time data unavailable at some locations

  25. QUESTIONS http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/