Northeast River Forecast Center DOC-NOAA-NWS SNEC-SWCS

1. Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWSSNEC-SWCS Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Edward.Capone@noaa.gov Northeast River Forecast Center weather.gov/nerfc

2. NWS River Forecast Centers • Mission: Protection of Life and Property • Flood Guidance • Water Supply • 13 River Forecast Centers across USA • 122 Weather Forecast Offices

3. National Weather Service Hydrologic Services • Built upon 13 River Forecast Centers • Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and provide temperature and precipitation forecasts for the production of river flow and stage forecasts, inflow hydrograph forecasts, flash flood guidance, extended stream flow prediction, water resources information • Primary customers include the WFOs, Reservoir Operators, USACE Reservoir Control, USGS, Hydropower, FEMA, NFMS, NOS • Staffs mix of meteorologists, hydrologists, civil and environmental engineers/scientists • 18 hr a day operations – 24 hrs during floods.

4. WFO Caribou, ME Northeast Maine counties WFO Gray, ME Southwest Maine and most of New Hampshire Less Cheshire and Hillsboro WFO Burlington, VT Northern 2/3rds of VT WFO Albany, NY Srn 1/3 of VT, Berkshire, MA, Litchfield, CT WFO Taunton, MA Rest of MA, all of RI, and the northern 2/3rds of CT WFO Upton, NY All coastal CT Counties WFO Binghamton, NY Finger Lakes region WFO Buffalo, NY Buffalo Creeks, Genesee and Black Weather Forecast Office New York/New England Service Areas

5. Watch/Warning responsibilities Coordinate final adjustments to RFC forecast guidance for their warning issuances Issue and coordinate all watches/warnings with local interests Flood/Flash Flood Drought/Water Resource Hydrologic Outlooks Define forecast service requirements Establish flood stages and impact statements for forecast points Work with RFC on developing modeling requirements EMA community collaborates directly Weather Forecast Office during events Weather Forecast Office Responsibilities

6. Northeast RFC • Nearly 200 forecast location • Time to Peak: 6-48 hours • Elevation from 0 – 6600 ft • River Basins • Connecticut • Hudson • Merrimack • Kennebec • St John • Staff of 14 • Located in Taunton, Massachusetts

7. Forecasts on Watersheds in Connecticut • Connecticut • Farmington • Housatonic • Yantic • Quinebaug • Willimantic • Thames

8. River Forecast Center Responsibilities • Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide: • River flow and stage forecasts at NEARLY 200 locations • Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding • Ensemble streamflow predictions • Ice Jam and Dam Break support • Water Supply forecasts • Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at Portland, CT.

9. Critical PartnersDOI - USGS Water Science Centers • Enhancing the public safety by providing data for forecasting and managing floods • Characterizing current water-quality conditions • Determining input rates of various pollutants into lakes, reservoirs, or estuaries • Computing the loads of sediment and chemical constituents • Understanding the biological effects of contamination • Delineating and managing flood plains • Operating and designing multipurpose reservoirs • Setting permit requirements for discharge of treated wastewater • Designing highway bridges and culverts • Setting minimum flow requirements for meeting aquatic life goals • Monitoring compliance with minimum flow requirements • Developing or operating recreation facilities • Scheduling power production • Designing, operating, and maintaining navigation facilities • Allocating water for municipal, industrial, and irrigation uses • Administering compacts or resolving conflicts on interstate rivers • Defining and apportioning the water resources at our international borders • Evaluating surface- and ground-water interaction • Undertaking scientific studies of long-term changes in the hydrologic cycle

10. Critical PartnersUS Army Corps of Engineers • New England District – Reservoir Control • Buffalo, NY District – Mount Morris Dam • CWMS – Corps Water Management System

11. Prerequisites for a Forecast • Established gage location • Need historical record • Both gage data • And temp/precip • Define basin and appropriate segments • Calibrate model • Develop forecast scheme • Current limitation: • =/> 100 sqmi • =/> 6 hr response time

13. Connecticut River Watershed Configuration

14. Soil Moisture Modeling and Calibration • Sacramento Soil Moisture Model • Input: Rain/Melt from snow model • Models motion of water through upper and lower soil layers • Outflow time series consists of multiple runoff and base flow sources • HEC-RAS for hydraulic reaches such as Tidal Hudson/Connecticut • Snow17 Snowmelt model • Inventory and Analysis of Historical Data – 1948 to 2010 daily forcings • Time Series Based on Historical Data • Model Selection • Calibration of Model Parameters • SACSMA, SNOW17, Reservoir Ops • Hydraulic Model calibration done separately – former 1D FLDWAV and now 1D HEC-RAS

15. Process Starts with Data Q/C • COOP Data, ASOS, Mesonets, CoCoRAHS • Radar estimates are combined with observations to produce an hourly mosaic grid and basin average estimate of rainfall • Mean (6 hr) Areal Precip & Temp basin averages - past 24 hrs

16. Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator Hourly Multi-Sensor Grid Production(1 hour grid analysis) Hourly Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation(Radar / Gage Mosaic)

17. Precipitation/Temperature Forecasting • Hydro-met Analysis Support forecaster • Rainfall forecasts out 48-72 hours • Longer for contingency guidance • Temperature forecasts during the cool-season • Lower and Upper zones (upper >2kft) • Issued 3 times a day

18. Community Hydrologic Prediction System(CHPS) Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia To help us meet the demands of future water resource services Community Hydrologic Prediction System NWS Models FEWS USACE Models FEWS Models Other Models

19. Community Hydrologic Prediction System

20. The End ResultOur Graphical and Text Forecasts

21. Exceedance Display Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts Early March 2011 Floods Hurricane Irene’s Approach

22. River, Rainfall, Temperature and Snowmelt Displays

23. Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions • Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS • Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties • Implementation Status: • Demonstrating components of short-term capability at 6 RFCs • Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years • Initial version of full capability in 2013

24. Modeling Tides and Storm Surge Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Portland, CT. Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Chester, CT.

26. Future Services: National Inundation Mapping Program • The development of static inundation mapping NWS helps guide you through the process but it requires dedicated funding on the state/local community’s part • Only available where NWS produces stage forecasts • IE: the larger rivers (Connecticut, Blackstone, Pawtuxet)

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29. Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWS Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Edward.Capone@noaa.gov Northeast River Forecast Center weather.gov/nerfc