Global Warming and Science

1. Global Warmingand Science April 21, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University

2. Who Am I? • Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department • Education • B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics • Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis • Not a Republican • Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other companies) • Love the outdoors and the environment • Love polar bears and clean air and water

3. Why This Talk? • The Global Warming social phenomenon • The Global Warming mystery • Scientific perspectives • Journalistic perspectives • A story of discovery

4. Truth – Some thoughts • The truth has no agenda • The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or artificial • The challenge of finding the truth

5. Science – The Focus • This talk focuses on the science behind Global Warming • Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical aspects • These talks are intended for general audiences

6. Introductory Points • Successful societal endeavors must be based on factual information, not popularity • Any new theory bears the burden of proof, not the other way around

7. Part 1 What is global warming?

8. Global Warming • The unnatural warming of the entire earth, caused by increases in carbon dioxide due to human activities, which is a threat to life on earth as we know it. • Key points: • Caused by CO2 • produced by human activity • represents serious threat to the earth

10. http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html

11. What Makes Up This Greenhouse? • Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the earth • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Chlorofluorocarbons • Carbon dioxide (CO2)

12. Global Warming Doctrine • Modern society burns fossil fuels such as • Gasoline, natural gas, coal • All of these give off CO2 as they burn • The added CO2 in the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect on the earth • This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal range • Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earth • The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2 emissions

13. Predictions From Global Warming • Rising sea levels • Massive drought • Food shortages • Species extinction • Severe natural disasters • Disease, famine, death http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm

14. Global Warming Philosophy • This is an existential world crisis • We are running out of time

15. Part 2 None of this is true

16. Preview • There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now above its normal, historical temperature range. • There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be. • Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.

17. CO2 Is Not a Pollutant • It is a critical part of the biosphere • Without CO2, life could not exist • Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons, heavy metal ions, organomercury compounds…these are pollutants =

18. Fact #1 • There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth; and that is good • If there were not, the earth’s temperature would drop by roughly 60°F, ending life as we know it on earth

19. Fact #2 • Global Warming theory is based on models, not on evidence • These computer models are made up by people, and are limited by • the programmer • our scientific knowledge • the ethics of the people who invent them http://www.physorg.com/news593.html

20. The Famous Hockey Stick • The only irregular part of the graph is the model, not the data McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters2005, 2, 32

21. Fact #3 • These models have already shown to be incorrect • Model prediction: Troposphere warming • Actual fact: No significant troposphere warming is occurring • Balloon and satellite data agree on this independently http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html

22. Hurricanes • Model prediction: 2006 worst hurricane year on record • Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the calmest hurricane seasons in history • Many other model failures exist http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm

23. Past Predictions • “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” • Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University • Predicted in 1970

24. Fact #4 • Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovered • More rain, then less rain • Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing • Drought, then flooding • No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrine http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html

25. Fact #5 • Weather records show that increased human CO2 emissions have been linked to decreased earth temperatures from 1940-1980

26. Fact #6 • The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans • 93% of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the ocean http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

27. Fact #7 • When oceans warm, they release CO2 • This is why [CO2] has increased and decreased over time

28. Inconveniently Separated • Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records from “An Inconvenient Truth” • Why are the graphs separated?

29. CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes • Note on close inspection that CO2lags behind temperature, not the reverse • (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)

30. Fact #8 • The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, by far,…is water vapor • 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to water vapor http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

31. Fact #9 • Other planets in our solar system are warming as well • Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

32. Martian Icecaps • The icecaps on Mars are melting • If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

33. Martian Warming • "Mars has global warming, but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians.” • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov Director, Space Research Laboratory Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory Russian Academy of Science http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

34. Fact #10 • In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” polar ice has returned • This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html

35. Growing Ice Caps • “The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.” • Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008 • Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of year http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming

36. Polar Bear Party • Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear numbers are increasing • Canadian government survey: Polar bear population has increased 250% in last 20 years • The indigenous Inuit people report the same http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

37. Fact #11 • When compared with larger-timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the normal range

38. Poor Sample of History? • “We have made ourselves a very poor experiment, because instrumental meteorological observations started precisely at the lowest temperature observed in the past 10,000 years.” • Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Curator Geophysics, Niels Bohr Institute

39. Confirming Data • C-14 samples from tree rings and peat bogs confirm this historical temperature pattern • So do data from stalactite caves in China and North Africa

40. Fact #12 • Global Warming Theory arose essentially overnight, as a political product of the United Nations, with little or no scientific scrutiny Graphic from 1990 report by International Panel on Climate Change

41. Historical Records and Accounts • Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-1400 AD) • Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)

42. Mann’s Hockey Stick, 1998 • Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst. Professor, University of Massachusetts

43. A Memory Hole? • In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age became non-events • Selective data is chosen and displayed alongside speculative statistical data

44. “An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.” • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann

45. The IPCC • The International Panel on Climate Change is a body of the United Nations • It is not a scientific body; it is a political body

46. Climate Change Authority • The IPCC is a self-appointed world authority on climate change • The structure of the IPCC, 1990 • Working Group 1 (Science) • Working Group 2 (Sociology, Economics) • Working Group 3 (Public Policy) • The curious role of scientists in the IPCC

47. IPCC on Itself • “The IPCC work aims at the promotion of the United Nations goals.” • “When governments accept IPCC reports, they acknowledge their legitimacy.” • “The IPCC produces regular reports which immediately become standard works of reference.” http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

48. Global Warming in the Media2006

49. Fact #13 • Despite strenuous and expensive propaganda attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is becoming less scientifically accepted each year • 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New York • March 2-4, 2008

50. Non-Believers • John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel • Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace • Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expert • Dr. Willile Soon, Harvard Physicist http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/ http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945 http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260